Thanks for the write up.I think the real ground down opinions like this really add value to this forum eventhough its macro . It shows we need to be objective and ignore the nationalistic (often jingoist) noise which politicians make.
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Plenty of name drops (of Indian listed partner entities) from Jensen. (Mumbai Event)
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Makes me wonder about the fragility of financial markets, the intricate structures, the perception of value, the actions of participants, regulatory limitations, the interconnectedness.
GFC always fascinates me and scares me, makes me think.
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Nice read. A much more detailed look into the AMEX Bet !!
Biggest takeaway was how Buffett performed Scuttlebutt. Amazing !
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In the entire article, there’s just like 2 sentences on how he performed scuttlebut!
He hired someone to do it 
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He (the guy he hired) interviewed as many stakeholders in AMEX as he could and presented the evidence (“foot high stack of papers”). That’s the effort, whether hired or not. don’t know what you were expecting lol
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India’s shipbuilding industry lags with only 1.2% of global ownership. We depend heavily on foreign ships, costing $75B+ in forex.
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Key Takeaways from the Alpha Ideas 20 20 Meet today
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A twitter user named devesh has created a spreadsheet to track the performance of ideas presented at the Alpha 20-20 Summit.
Here’s the link: Alpha Ideas 20-20 Meet - Google Sheets
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As an investor, received attached letter today - where thoughts of Rajeev has been captured.
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AI tools to use in stock market research. Must watch and easy to implement. Find useful hence sharing.
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Book: “Behold the Leviathan: The Unusual Rise of Modern India” by Mr. Saurabh Mukherjea and Nandita Raj.
Though I have not read the book and do not intend to, the following points are based on a YouTube transcript:
Points:
- Nominal GDP is growing at around 10%, while corporate earnings are shrinking.
- This disconnect is attributed to the fact that much of India’s economic vibrancy isn’t captured by the top 1,000 listed companies.
- A significant portion of the growth is concentrated in approximately 70,000 smaller, unlisted companies, which are outperforming the larger, listed firms.
- Around 60,000 companies in India, with profits of ₹1 crore or more, have been growing their profits at an average rate of 15% per year, with this accelerating to nearly 25% in the post-COVID era.
- This robust profit growth, particularly among unlisted companies, indicates a vast pool of potential investment opportunities.
This appears to be a complete U-turn from Saurabh Mukherjea’s earlier view that only 15 companies generate strong cash flows.
Recently, he also purchased 7–8 small-cap stocks, suggesting he now believes mega-caps are growing slower than small-caps.
My intention is not to criticize Saurabh Mukherjea—nor should anyone do so. The purpose is to understand whether this reflects a genuine shift or is merely a passing trend.
Questions:
- Are SMEs, small caps, and unlisted small companies truly growing faster than large caps?
- If yes, what are the reasons behind this growth?
- Is this a short-term phenomenon or a sign of structural changes?
- The earlier narrative emphasized “the big getting bigger.” Is this changing, or is this just a phase, after which large caps will regain their dominance?
This is a work in progress on my side; I may update the group if I come across any notable insights.
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This looks interesting.
If Small Caps and Unlisted Small companies are growing at 25% or so, they must be also contributing more in Tax Collections i.e. Income Tax, GST. May be, it might be a good idea to look for more details in this area. That would certainly throw more light on this.
At the same time, we should able to see many small caps becoming mid caps since those are growing much faster. Though only 150 companies are classified as Midcaps, we can check whether more small caps are crossing 20,000 Cr market cap in the past few years and if this trend can continue.
Overall, this also says a lot that, lot of small founders must be recruiting employees for their small organizations than large organizations and this trend might be visible in EPFO additions as well.
These are just initial thoughts from my side.
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While Asian markets are experiencing a correction driven by fears of Trump imposing tariffs, this research highlights that many U.S. executives had been planning a shift to the Indian subcontinent well before these developments.
Fortune’s report suggests that as this trend accelerates, Indian stocks could see a significant boost due to increased production activity.
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SBI Securities has published the concall summaries of 270+ companies across various sectors. Get Insights on company performances, industry outlooks
SBI_Securities_Result_Concall_Capsule_September_2024_Quarter.pdf (1.9 MB)
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GULP!
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