Not directly related to market but great insight into the entrepreneurship of Mr Lalit Modi.( It may be one side of the story but worth listening) He has really created value for IPL and BCCI.
How to look at Valuation by Raamdeo Agrawal, good insights!
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A reality check, by Siddhartha Bhaiya (thanks to @nirvana_laha for sharing this)
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Capex & Opex supercycles — Part-II - Hemant Mohapatra
https://medium.com/@MohapatraHemant/capex-opex-supercycles-part-ii-888ecf29f025
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Ben Evans’s yearly presentation on Technology.
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1732885629_Ready Reckoner_H1_FY-2024-25_Final_compressed.pdf (4.6 MB)
Some snippets from the report –
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Starting with its September 2023 lineup, Apple launches its iPhones on the same day as its global release. Also, while the majority of iPhone units is still produced in China, India-assembled devices are steadily growing—targeting both export and domestic markets. From 2024, India-based plants will be involved in the assembly of the ultra-premium Pro models.
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90 Facts from 2024 - The Idea Farm
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My thoughts on risk (Key tenets to Understand Risk, which every equity investor shall be mindful about.
The entire text below:
Risk is ubiquitous as it’s integral to everyday earthly matters. Everyone may not explicitly consider and think about risk but must handle risk for everyday chores such as buying car insurance, selling winners, and averaging losers. Risk takes center stage in decisions related to investment matters, particularly equity investment. Investors invest now expecting to earn more in the future, which is highly uncertain. Hence, it becomes imperative for a thinking investor’s mind to understand the overall concept of risk. The simplest definition of risk, in my opinion, would be that the expected outcomes are only a subset of all the outcomes that are likely to happen.
Risk is hidden, subjective, and non-quantifiable. It can’t be completely measured or eliminated. However, it can be controlled, transferred, or distributed. In equity investment, an investor shall focus on two main risks: loss of own capital and earning a return lower than alternative opportunities. All the investment risks can be categorized into two major heads: systematic (external) and non-systematic (internal).
Systematic risks are uncontrollable and impossible to predict in advance, either their timing to start and end or their degree of impact. However, experts attribute them to recurring macro factors such as changes in interest rates, inflation, natural calamities (like COVID), and national and international situations like war, political changes, etc after they become a public secret. Unfolding systematic risks changes the attitude of the market participants to excessive pessimism and affects most stocks, correcting them by varying degrees. These risks increase uncertainty in the minds of the market participants and cloud their judgment, making them think emotionally rather than objectively. During these moments, investors’ preference for risk quickly jumps from one extreme to another extreme, risk-seeking in regular times but risk-averse in difficult times.
Even though systematic risks are uncontrollable, a good action plan can help to handle them gracefully. Firstly, invest long-term savings in the equities for the long run. Secondly, be aware that intermittent drawdowns in equity instruments are a norm. Instead of selling in such a distressed moment, keep the investment horizon in mind and do not panic. Thirdly, avoid or limit leverage to take investment positions else forced selling will be inevitable. Finally, use this as an opportunity to buy more. Overall, always maintain liquidity and be prepared with ideas to create immense wealth.
Unlike systematic risks, non-systematic risks are due to factors that impact individual companies or industries. The list of factors contains method, instrument, horizon, quantity, and nature of the business and industry. All these factors can be controllable by following proven risk-mitigating approaches such as following a robust process that is updated with the latest learnings, knowing and understanding the instrument of interest, being mindful of the investment horizon, diversifying positions till ready to bear risks of concentrated investing, considering financially sound businesses for investment, and staying vigilant about or weeding out industries that are prone to lose money historically.
In times of risk unfolding, the continuum of the probability of an event ranging from certainty to possibility hardly comes to thoughts, making emotions prevail. The practice of selling winners and averaging losers is followed by novice investors even though it results in poor outcomes. Where does all this leave us? One who invests in equities has fear. One who has fear must think of risk. One who thinks of risk aligns his actions to survive lethal shocks. Overall, one should develop suitable thinking to handle risk since wishing it away is not an option.
The short mental model to build an equity investor’s thinking about risk could be: Be aware, analyze, diversify, and do not pay too much in exhilarating times.
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Video of this very good PPT
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The US Biosecure Act, which sought to ban funding for China Cos doing CDMO work for US Cos, has been dropped & will not become law. This is a big setback for Divis, Laurus, Strides, Piramal, Syngene etc. Experts like Madhu Kela, Vikas Khemani had projected 5x returns from CDMO - NDTV Profit
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Another great insight/learning for serious investors! Red Flags, Forensic, valuations
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