Interesting chart by Capitalmind. Nifty led 12 of 25 years, followed by gold in 7 and silver in 6
Main takeaway from this is you can do well with just nifty and gold. No need to overdiversify
Good article on the Chinese 
onslaught of the European car market . Has many answers to recent fall of the likes of KPIT.
âGreat work shouldnât be put in the pursuit of a great objective. Instead, it should be put in the pursuit of what you find fascinating.â
Writing is thinking. In fact thereâs a kind of thinking that can only be done by writing. You canât make this point better than Leslie Lamport did:
âIf youâre thinking without writing, you only think youâre thinking.â
So a world divided into writes and write-nots is more dangerous than it sounds. It will be a world of thinks and think-nots.
Compounding is miracle.
Total banking credit has increased 20x over the past two decades, reaching $2.5 trillion from $125 billion in 2001.
This figure is projected to surge to $65-70 trillion in the next 25 years, surpassing the current GDP of less than $4 trillion.
Corporate profits in India have witnessed substantial growth, surging from $8 billion in 2001 to $150 billion last year. This growth is projected to continue, reaching $1 trillion by 2035 and $25 trillion by 2047.
Outlook for future:
Indiaâs GDP is projected to reach $29-30 trillion by the time the country turns 100 (Amrit Kaal, 25 years), a significant increase from the current $3.7-3.8 trillion. This translates to a potential 16x growth in total GDP and a per capita GDP of $18,000, up from $2,500. Indiaâs share of global trade is also expected to rise to 15-16%, a substantial jump from the current 4%.
Less number of writers in a couple of decades? I can see it now in VP. While I do acknowledge and appreciate the intention of members sharing, AI-generated text doesnât ignite any interest to read. The insights, some of them even if personal, even if inapplicable to me, but originated in a memberâs mind, are interested to me, even helpful to me to create my own understanding. I would not have understood a lot of things, if not for the writings of the members of this forum and elsewhere. The differentiating factors each one brings are so unique that, I can understand many things about a business, which I would not have understood on my own. The collective is so powerful.
Shorter-term bets are personalized, right from the selection; entry to profit booking. While investing may not be as personalized as trading, investing too has the element of independent thinking, so I find it hard to develop my own premise from the text generated by a machine. Even with transcripts of conference calls generated by machine, the absence of certain words can present a different picture, a disconnect. Perhaps this is the way going forward for younger generations, learning from videos; AI, but I find it uninterested and difficult.
I believe that will not be the case with VP, and the tradition of members posting their own thoughts; insights and wisdom lucidly will continue even as AI becomes more prevalent. 
HUL, Nestle are saying growth is not there, middle class is shrinking etc etc. Its not like that, see the brands around you. Cottage grown, PE funded brands are coming up in all sectors. See the snacking and FMCG market, earlier there were only HUL, Nestle, Dabur now we have tons of companies making different products. Eg: see Sharktank, the numbers of companies that are coming up in all those categories.
See cosmetics, earlier there were Lakme, chamber, revnol 2-3 more; now we have 40+ brands selling cosmetics;
Most of these brands and new stuff will die out once the liquidity dries up. They wonât be able to survive the downturn / compete with the pricing of big players.
MNC backed Nestle, P&G, HUL are not going to sleep while these small players eat up their volumes.
We canât take the number of the legacy brands n say growth isnt there.
Yes, but enough growth is not there, else volumes should have increased even for these legacy brands.
Aditya, valuepickr is a respectful forum and I strongly suggest using decent words in your posts. Please do edit your post and remove unparliamentary words
Article in ET on the potential of optical fiber. Some stats are interesting.
India has about 8 lakh cell sites with less than 40% fiberised. It requires almost 80-85% fiberisation for 5g and high speed broadband services .
Connnecting data Centers using standalone enterprise networks is catching up . AI Data centres need much bigger pipes
Projections should capture our imagination, sure, but here they seem to be over the top 
! Corporate Profits cannot be ~ 90% of GDP in 2047 from say less than 5% of GDP in FY 2024 as stated.
From 2001 until 2014, Indiaâs GDP (at > 11% pa) grew by more than 4 times from $ 485 billion to $ 2T. However it grew by just ~ 85% from $2T in 2014 to about $ 3.6 - $3.7T in FY 24 (~ 7% pa). That is a considerable slow down in the rate of compounding, for whatever reason, including possibly base effect.
To get to $ 30T by 2047 means a far higher rate of compounding at 9.6% p.a. And that too for 25 continuous years! This is a nearly impossible feat achieved by no country, including China. Even Chinaâs miraculous growth of 9% for about 25+ years was achieved by a fortuitous global environment, among other things.
Much as I am hesitant to be a party pooper to âbandwagonâ investment; there are just too many presentations extolling India, and Indian markets peppering with overworked phrases like Amrit Kaal etc. So it may be good, nay, a duty even to provide a balancing view, so we may know if we are unconsciously wearing the cloak of false pride with not much underneath!
I am living in Singapore currently, and have been investing in and travelling to US / Australia / Japan / UK / Vietnam and Singapore ofcourse. I subscribe to and read business newspapers from these countries, regularly interact with management and investors. I am also very meaningfully invested in India equity markets.
So what do I see from here?
From an markets standpoint (equity / debt etc), money has been retreating from China but is not coming into India. Of course some small money will always, but it is puny in comparison. Foreign money is flushing into money markets / equity in US, equity markets in Japan even though they get single digit returns / FX volatility. The perception has worsened over the past many months; and papers write about how the Indian regulator chief is in many cross hairs. Which foreign fund manager wants to take a career risk then?
We all have heard big money is in private equity. Out here I can see that it is terrifyingly big. Just one firm Blackrock has $ 11 T in AUM (all inclusive). 11 T is just one firm with two times Indiaâs market cap! Reading headlines of newspapers will tell you that they are just gobbling up assets all over the place, in all industries,âŚbut very very little in India. KKR says of their Asia Pacific investments 17% of the assets in India, same as their assets in Australia - whose population is smaller than Chattisgarh!!!. 40% of their assets is in a country which has among the worldâs fastest ageing and declining population, Japan. Not in the country with the highest population, best demographic dividend and with an opportunity to grow in Amrit Kaal 
! Foreign investors in start-up ventures are smarting heavily with losses (ask Prosus) battling a legal system that is labyrinthine.
If you look at Indiaâs Net FDI in FY 2023 - 24 from RBIâs Bulletin, you will see that it is only $ 10.129 billion! A country of Vietnamâs size gets more.
So foreign investors may do all the great PR that we want to listen; but give very little from their purse. (We may want to think about why Hyundai Parent listed their Indian arm in India and took their money out)
Many business men / investors feel India is not easy to do business, so better to do it in other places even if expensive.
Simple matters like transacting between an Indian entity and forieign entity in foreign currency requires paperwork that takes days. To provide payment to a foreign entity without deducting TDS, one has to get a TRC, file 10F, hope the bankâs back office does not create problems etc etc. It gets too much for a new overseas entity. Managing currency risk of the Rupee without easy convertibility is another headache. All this when world had moved towards much simpler ways of doing business gives the perception that India is a business island. So when AK presentation says exports will be 14 - 15% of Global Trade from 4% today, when our exports have not even kept pace with GDP (peaked as %age of GDP in 2013), it feels like a bad joke.
India is behind on many many other counts that are important to investors. For eg the legal infrastructure is creaky, leaky and takes a lot of time. Centralized systems are unable to create quick resolutions. Something as important as harmonising accounting standards are not done. IFRS 9 for eg, which provides for ECL, adopted by banks wef 2018, is not yet adopted by Indian Banks and keeps getting deferred. Similarly IFRS 17 - a whole new accounting revamp for insurance companies has not yet been adopted by India - which again makes it difficult to evaluate and judge for investors.
Regulators in these countries understand that for businesses any delay is lost money, so as quick a resolution as possible is adopted as an attitude. Not here.
Our pride may hurt enough to ask, âdoes this mean that other countries are very clean, fast and perfectâ. True, but they donât keep saying we are in Amrit Kaal!
Make no mistake India offers great potential, but real work has to be done to convert that potential into reality, not by the bluff of figures like $ 30 T by 2047.
Awesome⌠An open mind with liberty to think constructively can only analyze such things in a simple way ⌠and also explain in layman terms.
Thanks @diffsoft for sharing your thoughts as a global investor.
Look forward to learn much more from you.
- In 2023, the Indian government announced a lithium reserve of 5.9 million metric tons in Kashmir.
- The government has since failed to find bidders for the reserve, and extraction plans have been halted.
- Industry experts say the governmentâs reports around the reserve were misleading and inadequate.
Worth listening to - Stanley Druckenmiller interviewed by Nicolai Tangen of Norges Bank.
Thank you for penning these. I do agree with these.
Btw, the best TL;DR I have heard about India thus far is Ruchir Sharmaâs (at least i heard it from him first) ==> âIndia disappoints both its optimists and pessimistsâ.
One of the ways in which the broader âNothing is as good or bad as it seemsâ manifests itself.
Great read. Its an eye opening post. I think the present government should realise this and take corrective steps. The pace of infrastructure growth in India is way too slow. You canât take one freaking decade to complete a metro rail project in a big city which is of utmost importance. State governments will change but the Centre has to realise this and speed up infrastructure projects.
I feel the biggest disappointment of the current government is being unable to tackle corruption and babudom in this country. If not addressed it will have serious consequences.