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This single equation spawned four multi-trillion dollar industries
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Here’s the article that I find very relatable to the mindset of every investor specifically if they are in their initial phase. How the fear of missing out plays an important emotional factor in the stock market and how important it is to avoid it to keep our capital safe.
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- Labour hoarding will diminish - Job claims could increase
- AI and Chip could have a bubble. Too much too soon
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Below is the report from Blume venture on India’s consumption, GDP, Stock market and everything. Reading such report gives direction where puck is moving.
Report: https://docsend.com/view/zqgfupfzyud499hn
Video: is also available, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lu95u5Wpq2U
Liked hence sharing.
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My note on Indus valley annual report 2024:
India GDP 7 vs 4.1 of china estimated from 2023 to 28. First time since 1980, india’s GDP estimation is higher than china
India’s GDP contains 60% - private consumption, 11% Govt spend, 29% - Fix cap by business like roads, bridges, manufacturing facilities etc by govt & private, 21% Exports which is minus by -24% imports
While china has private consumption of 38% but fix cap is 43 vs 29 of India.
Private co borrowing less hence can’t invest much in fix cap. Corp debt as % GDP is 60 in 2012 vs 50% now. Less borrowing reasons are NPA, covid and under utilisation etc.
Corp tax % vs GDP is 3%.
Income tax as a % of GDP is 3%.
Income tax: our of 142 cr 7.4 cr files returns, 2.2 cr pays tax and only 45 lakhs which is 0.3% of population pays 80% of income tax.
Due to above all govt debt is higher 82% of GDP.
India has underutilised bond market. 67% of GDP vs 195% of US.
Corporate bond is even lower, 16% of GDP vs 123% of US.
Discretionary consumption is growing 13% in 2000 to 21% in 2022 of total consumption.
grocery vs discretionary is 75% vs 25% for india which is 40 vs 60 for china.
India’s consumption class:
India 1: income $15k includes 12 cr
India 2: Income $3k includes 30 cr
India 3: 1 b people income $1k
India 1 & 2 is growing. Hence hero growth is 5% vs 16% royal enfield from 19-22. Mahindra 1% vs 5% of BMW.
Entry level vehicle is declining and also avg property price is rising. Apple sales overtake to HUL in India that is 80000 cr vs 60000 cr.
India 1 is investing in stock market. Domestic investor ownership of bse500 is 9.1 in 2023 vs 3.3 in 2013. SIP is 18800 cr in 2023 vs 13000 in 2020.
Indian mkt to gdp is 120% in 2023 vs 80% in 2019. USD is 190 highest vs china is 80%.
Valuation premium of India is 27.4% of 18 y average vs discount of -26.2 of china.
Personal loan:
6.7 % of total loan in 2023 vs 3.1 in March 18. Volume increased 12x and 3.5x of value. Hence small ticket loan increased 31x from 2.8 mn to 87.9 mn. This loan is by NBFC and most are from fintechs.
2/5th of borrowers are with 5+ loans. They seems rotating money and are in debt spiral. 3x increase in loan defaulters from 5% in 2019 to 16.5 in 2023.
Good news is that higher borrower, 10L+ loan borrower – NPA is lower, 1.5% in 2019 vs 1.2 in 2023. NPA increased for borrower of small loans – less than 10 L.
Retail borrower base increased from 13.9 cr in 2018 vs 25.8 cr in 2023.
Human exporter / migrants:
India is no 1 1.79 cr migrants followed by 1.12 of Mexico
Top remitter are NRI – $ 125 Billion and growing. This is better than FDI which is cyclical. Remittance is 20% of foreign exchange.
IT workforce in IT co in USA 37% engineer and 23% scientist. Indian is most countries has highest household income.
Exports:
Service exports of India in world exports is 4.4 in 2022 vs 3.4 in 2018 and 1.9 in 2005. Same is 1.8 of goods in 2022 vs 1.7 in 2018 and 1 in 2005.
Indian IT co global market share is 6.8% in 2023 vs 1 in 2005. IT has 4.5 m direct and 12 m indirect job which is 30% of India’s white colour job.
Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI)
97% Aadhar, 50 cr Jan Dhan, 40 cr UPI transacting users
India is 4th largest in terms of VC investment in start up after USA, China and UK.
India’s PE market is larger than China, 11 B USD vs 7. However china VC is large that is 8 vs 38 b in 2023. This is due to lack of global co like china’s ali, tiktok, shein, pdd and temu etc.
Indian PE has good exit ratio whereas VC lacks exit.
IPO buoyant: 59 main board issues with 50k cr. Higher offer for share vs fresh issue, 29k cr vs 21k cr.
SME IPO: 182 new ipo in 2023 which collected 4700 cr in 2023 which is highest both in terms of Numbers and value.
Digital native brands (DNB):
$ 975 B retail market size which includes $ 60 B online retail market size. Share of DNB is increasing, which is now 40% vs traditional brands.
Quick commerce:
Blinkit 40% market share vs 37-39 of instamart and 20% zepto.
Quick commerce penetration vs online grocery in india is 13% vs 7% of china.
Nearly 50% online revenue of nestle is come from Quick co.
There were a day where blinkit sold more than amazon. Amazon is too big however there were a day where it sold more than amazon.
Quick co sells many things like electronics, apparel, gifting etc. and they are entering new things.
Consumer Electronics appliances - CEA:
Boat global rank is 2nd after apple with market share of 9.6%. Means boat is second largest wearable brand overtaking Samsung, Xiaomi, Huawei etc.
India is largest smartwatch market by volumes majorly by noise and firebolt.
New smart appliance market is penetrating in to Indian home like automated cooking.
R&D:
Indian spend 0.7% of GDP in R&D which is lowest. Share of R&D spend in india is 50% govt, 41% by business whereas in USA govt is 9% and 75% is by businesses.
Lending beats payment as preferred sub sector by fintech. $ 937 mn vs 747 mn.
4 digital discount broker – zerodha, grow, upstox and angel has 57% market share.
Micro transactions gaining popularity vs subscription. UPI removes friction of paying small amount. User is happier paying Rs 10 daily vs rs 300 monthly upfront.
Media / Advertisement:
Digital ad revenue is INR 78.3k, vs TV 42.2k vs print 14.6k.
Digital is divided by 60% other, 18% retail and 22% search.
Digital ad revenue by retail includes 5.3k amazon, 3.3k flipkart, 1600 by Zomato etc.
Mean to say retail media is as big as google search and equal to print media in India.
End.
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The Responsible Use of Seafloor Resources Act calls for federal resources to be allocated towards refining polymetallic nodule materials and advises several analyses across benefit sharing, technology development, trade, and environmental and human health.
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China controls roughly 60% of the global critical mineral production and over 85% of the world’s refining capacity.
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Minerals and metals such as cobalt, nickel, copper, and manganese can be found in potato-sized nodules on the ocean floor. Reserves are estimated to be worth anywhere from $8 trillion to more than $16 trillion, and they are in areas where companies, including The Metals Company, plan to target.
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Many NGOs and environmental groups, however, argue that mining the seafloor could have a devastating impact on the planet.
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S. Naren of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund makes some good points in this interview/article (may be paywalled). Edited excerpts from the speech towards the end of the article.
Vey bad decision . If they are not moving to EV anyway fossil fuel resources are going to last for the next 30 or 40 years. After that what they are going to do
Ev is also created using fossil fuels (indirectly)
That’s why the world is moving to cleaner energy like solar, wind etc… Now car makers are moving the needle back. Its like power producers saying that we are no longer going to produce clean energy and we are going back to coal to produce power
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Strangely not many people here are discussing the electoral bonds. It could impact a lot of listed companies given the sums involved.
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The impact was already priced in on Friday. Now its just a matter of public perception if the oppn. IT cell can paint it as a scam to sway the minds of voters, which could potentially make the markets nervous,
anything to do with election results
some chronology
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Interesting Clip.
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