Great articles to read on the web

I am wondering what will be the response of INDIAN stocks markets if such huge amount of money or even it’s fraction gets pumped into INDIA?.

Is it plausible or it is a figment of imagination?

Understanding Warren Buffett through a unique, practical and powerful lense:

1 Like

MACROS

If someone wants to learn macro -economic factors -here is a good one and half hours class.

[Macros]( > https://macroalf.axiafutures.com/masterclass-replay-pt1 <)

The link is available till next Sunday only.

Happy learning.

1 Like

Always looking to hear Manish Sabharwal - the current one is great. It’s more on econimics - not relevant to direct investment / stock etc.

6 Likes

Prashant Jain parting letter:

https://moneymusingz.in/saar-prashant-jain/

4 Likes

An Analysis of Sentiments in the US Markets and its impact on Emerging markets:

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/order/plan/22129803,22129804?itm_campaign=JM-506&itm_content=JM506K&itm_medium=TE&itm_source=mec

1 Like

Below is my takeaway from MS article. Not sharing PDF due to copyright issue. It’s 127 page report - fasinating to read it.

Why this is India’s Decade
Blue paper by Morgan Stanley – 31st October 2022

				Current 	        Estimated (Decade)         X

GDP Per Capita (US$): 2278 5242 2.30
Export share %(Global): 2.2 4.5 2.05
Household income (above $ 35k): 5.6 to 25.2 4.50
It services ($ bn) 178 527 2.96
Stock Market ($ bn) 3500 10000 2.86
This is base case (between bull and bear)

Growth led by:

  1. Off shoring: Work from India. Will be factory of world as well (Along with back office of world). Manufacturing share to GDP will be 21% from 15.6%. It will be $1.49trn from $447bn.

  2. Digital Differentiation: Already changed the way India handles documents, invests and make payments, it set to alter lending, spending and insurance.
    World has seen US model (Free market) & advertising revenue.
    China Model: Behind firewall, created Alibaba & Tencent
    Europe: More regulated
    Indiastack: Inclusive, transaction led web3 model. Provides interoperability, democratizes data and decentralized. Like UPI, eKYC, Aadhar, GST, Fasttag, ONDC etc.

  3. Energy Transition: This is global transitions. Renewable sources will impact positively to India.
    Consumption: With rising GDP and income discretionary consumption boom

Risks: Prolonged global recession, sluggish growth, geopolitical, domestic politics and policy errors, shortage of skilled labor and steep rising in energy and commodity prices.

Other imp points:

  1. Government policy shift:
    Rural Employment Guarantee Act – MANREGA implemented in 2006 failed. It basically transfer of profits to wages. The idea was higher wages should result in higher demand and will increase profit. This failed as India’s surplus labor led to inflation rather rise in real growth. This is reversed by cutting corporate tax from 34.9 to 25.2, this gives more profit in hand of companies for expansion. Govt also done calibrated sector specific steps like PLI scheme, RERA, Bankruptcy code, Inflation framework etc.

  2. Multipolar world: USA and china will compete directly. While Europe, Japan and row will attempt balancing act and find economic opportunity.

  3. Paris accord will help cut fossile fuel and increase share of renewable energy.

  4. 25% of incremental global car sales will be from India. Out of it 30% will be EVs.

  5. In 2030 India will hit major inflection point via high per cap income, 30 median age and higher urbanization which will lead residential property boom.

  6. It infrastructure spens as % of capex is around 30% ehich is above average since 2019.

  7. Retail/MSME loan growth to accelerate to a 19% CAGR over the next decade.

18 Likes

Truce expected between China and USA?

1 Like

Macros - Other interesting and insightful take.

Why we’re bearish on global equities for at least next 2 quarters (except may be China and Turkey).

Happy learning.

3 Likes

From container shortage to glut, the situation has turned upside down:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Container-Glut-Growing-As-Global-Trade-Slips.html

2 Likes

Is this a free article. Couldn’t find in Morgan
site.

Not available in their website, may be for their members only. Sending you in DM.

2 Likes

Always fascinating to hear Peter Thiel

2 Likes
2 Likes
2 Likes

Reprogramming life. Cells will be future factories.

2 Likes

Worth a look…

3 Likes

Good insights on oil prices, demand side and supply side stories.

(Let me know if irrelevant to the thread will remove it.)

5 Likes

insightful article on understanding energy

1 Like