Great articles to read on the web

The last decade in pictures
A peak into the happenings of the last decade through the lens. Some stunning pictures remind us of the good, bad and ugly events that shaped the world.

Zanshin - Focus on the process more than the results
We live in a world obsessed with results. Like Herrigel, we have a tendency to put so much emphasis on whether or not the arrow hits the target. If, however, we put that intensity and focus and sincerity into the process—where we place our feet, how we hold the bow, how we breathe during the release of the arrow—then hitting the bullseye is simply a side effect.
The point is not to worry about hitting the target. The point is to fall in love with the boredom of doing the work and embrace each piece of the process. The point is to take that moment of zanshin, that moment of complete awareness and focus, and carry it with you everywhere in life.
It is not the target that matters. It is not the finish line that matters. It is the way we approach the goal that matters. Everything is aiming. Zanshin.

The wisdom of Nemish Shah
Investing, according to him, is simple and complicated at the same time, in a sense a lot like art. He says while investing in India follows the same rules as elsewhere, there is one crucial difference—here, the quality of the management has to be considered closely. “Abroad one can go by what is there in the books, but here you have to add one additional layer—the management,” says Shah. But as long as the management is focussed and understands allocation of capital, he is comfortable with the business. What he isn’t comfortable with are companies that are hasty and raise capital regularly. In fact, Shah has ignored many companies where the management did not give him the right vibe.

How to read news
Rather than reading less, portfolio managers must learn to rapidly detect what is nonsense and move on. It’s a necessary skill when confronted with the hype and sensationalism now masquerading as news. Pseudo news and pseudo analysis clutters the web, making it harder to stay well informed.
Turn off your political bias when you read and interpret the news, and be wary of commentators who have political agendas.
Before you read the news, you must have your own framework in place for decision-making. Otherwise, you’ll be unduly influenced by what you read. As Ed Stavetski, founder of PCM Partners LLC, put it, “You must have an independent view of the markets or the media will force a view upon you.”

How to Read: Lots of Inputs and a Strong Filter
Most books don’t need to be read to the end, but some books can change your life – means you need two things to get a lot out of reading: Lots of inputs and a strong filter.
If you only pick up books you know with certainty you’re going to like you’ll confine yourself to reading the same authors on the same topics. It gives fresh oxygen to confirmation bias and limits your ability to connect the dots between different fields and different cultures. It’s better to have a low bar in what books you’re willing to try, and even the faintest tickle of interest should be enough to make the cut. Kindle samples are free so excuses are minimal.
Once you’ve flooded your desk with inputs comes the filter. It should be ruthless, taking no prisoners and offering no mercy.

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Excellent presentation by Utpal Sheth
Worth your time

Thanks

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If you cannot find growth companies in innings three through five of the ballgame, look at turnarounds, special situations, back at the cyclicals. There’s a real shortage now of growth companies. That is a red flag, because all the money is flowing into [a few companies]. There’s an end to that game. It will scare me if this trend continues for a couple more years.

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Link to that quote:
http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Nick-Train-The-King-of-Buy-and-Hold.pdf

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This article was so enlightening, thanks for sharing.

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Many thanks. This is a gem of an article. :ok_hand::ok_hand::ok_hand::ok_hand:

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Wonderfully explained the Operation Twist. Must read!

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each of Morgan housel articles are this level. A must read blog if you like above article.
Mentioning some others I like

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@aveekmitra always talks realistically.

Not factoring in anything magical from govt this Budget: Aveek Mitra

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The economics of the "young old"
THE YEAR 2020 will mark the beginning of the decade of the yold, or the “young old”, as the Japanese call people aged between 65 and 75.
Health worsens with age, but the yold are resisting the decline better than most: of the 3.7 years of increased life expectancy in rich countries between 2000 and 2015, says the World Health Organisation, 3.2 years were enjoyed in good health. The yold are also better off: between 1989 and 2013, the median wealth of families headed by someone over 62 in America rose by 40% to $210,000, while the wealth of all other age groups declined.
The yold are busier, too. In 2016 just over a fifth of people aged 65-69 were in work in rich countries, a figure that is rising fast. Working is one of the factors that are helping people stay healthy longer. A German study found that people who remain at work after the normal retirement age manage to slow the cognitive decline associated with old age and have a cognitive capacity of someone a year and a half younger.

8 ways financial statements are manipulated
Every company manipulates its numbers to a certain extent to make sure budgets balance, executives score bonuses, and investors continue to offer up funding. Such creative accounting is nothing new. However, factors such as greed, desperation, immorality, and bad judgment can cause some executives to cross the line into outright corporate fraud. Investors should know how to recognize the basic warning signs of falsified statements. While the details are typically hidden, even from accountants, there are red flags in financial statements that can point to the use of manipulating methods.

Reducing noise helps in forecasting better
In a digital world swarming with fake news and sensationalist content, those who cast about widely for information are sure to reel in some strange fish. To extrapolate, superforecasters’ true edge may be more about discipline – the mental rigour required to distinguish random from revealing data – than innate wisdom or intellectual objectivity.
Whatever the reason, investing in noise reduction may not be a bad idea. One proven, if drastic, noise-reduction solution is to assign predictions to algorithms rather than humans. Bots are programmed to pay attention to patterns in data and discount random information.

The silent mobile revolution in India
There are now more than 450 million mobile internet users in India, a number that is expected to grow to 667 million by 2022. Not so surprising considering that India has the lowest data costs in the world and its fixed-line download speeds continue to rise. It’s not just the urban middle class who have benefitted. Nearly half of India’s 250,000 village councils are now connected by fibre optic networks, with the other half scheduled to come online in the next two years. More than 300,000 so-called common service centres have been set up around the country to provide even impoverished villagers with access to digital services.

Always average up
Never double down, always double up. And here’s the interesting thing, so most people think if you’ve done the work and you buy something and it goes against you, you should buy more. And what Julian would say is no, we’re just wrong. Made a mistake and the market’s right, the market’s … this goes back to the efficient markets. It’s not that the market’s always efficient, but when it’s telling you you’re wrong you should listen to it. And there’s the famous picture of Paul Tudor Jones in his dorm room with the losers average losers sign.
Now most people would say, “Well wait a minute, that’s not a value investor.” Well think about it, is it or is it not? So what he’s saying is when he had edge, when he had knowledge about an area, an asset, a company and they made an investment and now the market is coming around to your view, rather than do what most human beings do, which is pull their flowers. They’re so happy to have a win they take profits. He’s like, “Well let’s buy more because it’s working.” And there’s the simple statement of let’s do more of what’s working and less of what’s not. Most of us don’t do that, we do more of what’s not working and less of what’s working, which is why the average person underperforms.

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I found this documentary on China very informative and realistic.

The media in (US and India, of course) is very biased towards China and does not depict the true (positive story). Most of the information in this documentary is public knowledge, but the producers have collected all the information and presented very nicely. Some of the key highlighted in my view:

1- There are few regions/towns in China, which does not accept cash at all. They do not accept credit/debit cards as well. The whole society of the area has gone digital. If a foreigner visits the places, he struggles to buy even food with cash, unless someone helps them.

2- WebChat/Tencents are dominating the payment market. People use WeChat to do buy items/sell items/payment/book movie and many others.

3- BYD- the biggest EV procure in the world is leading the pack for producing EV buses too.

4- China produces more EV than most of the developed nation put together. In comparison, India is struggling to define a clear cut policy for EV. Someone buying a selling 500 EV gets a news headline in India media that shows the infancy of the EV market. I think China is a clear leader in EV by a wide margin.

5- Shenzhen- also called a Silicon Valley of China was a small village of 3 lakhs people 15/20 years ago. Today, leading global companies like Microsoft/Intel/Amazon/Apple as well as new age Chines companies like BYD/Huewai are headquartered here. The massive transformation in such a short time is inspiring.

I think India should take some leap from China’s book and work collaboratively with them, instead of only being hostile. I know this is easier said than done, but it will generate massive employment and generate many more jobs.

All in all, it is worth watching this document.

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One of the best article I believe that explains the power of dividends-

https://www.dividend.com/sponsored-why-dividends-matter/

There exists only two ways to earn money after buying a stock -

i). You earn money from the stock itself- the company rewards its shareholders by distributing its earnings in the form of dividends or buybacks. There may be an extreme case also like liquidation of assets of the company etc.

ii). From trading - You sell your stock to some else for a higher price than your buying price.

It is because of (i) or the future expectations of (i), that (ii) exists. By itself, (ii) is just a giant ponzi scheme. Focussing on just the trading aspect makes sense when doing intraday or short term momentum investing.

Problem lies when many long term investors also base their decisions on just the (ii) aspect, even if they may not think about it explicitly. The intention is hardly to earn money from the stock itself and the value of a stock lies in “how much it can be sold to another person”. This explains why dividends are disrespected today.

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Disruptions are coming and it will be fast. Even analyst and companies doesn’t want to recognize the facts and are always wrong at the speed of disruptions.

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https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos
As good an explanation for -ve interest rate as you can find anywhere else

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This is a gold mine! Thank you for sharing. Usually, I would have just liked your post and left it at that. However these posts are so mind blowing that I would urge other members to subscribe or go through this blog. Here is a gem from the archives:

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Rupal Bhansali is the chief investment officer for international and global equities at John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)’ Ariel Investments, a Chicago-based firm with $12.7 billion in assets under management.

Heading up the Ariel Global Fund and Ariel International Fund, Bhansali began her buy-side career at Soros Fund Management over 20 years ago. She joined Ariel in 2011 and now manages approximately $7 billion in portfolios for both institutional and retail clients.

Bhansali answered questions about investing that GuruFocus readers asked recently. Read her responses in the interview below.

Interview: Ariel Investments’ Rupal Bhansali Answers Your Investing Questions, Part I

Interview: Ariel Investments’ Rupal Bhansali Answers Your Investing Questions, Part II

She has also discussed about her new book, “Non-Consensus Investing : Being Right When Everyone Else Is Wrong.”

She has spent 10 years with MacKay Shields, where she was senior managing director, portfolio manager and head of international equities. Prior to that, she spent 5 years at Oppenheimer Capital, where she managed international and global equity portfolios and was promoted to co-head of international equities.

Having grown up, lived, studied and worked in multiple geographies, Rupal has a keen understanding of the socio-economic-political environments and cultural attributes of various countries in the world. She has over 30 years of experience analyzing corporate strategies of thousands of companies in a variety of industries operating in North America, Europe and Japan as well as Latin America, Eastern Europe & Asia.

She is a frequent guest on Bloomberg, CNBC and Fox Business News. Fluent in several Indian languages including Hindi, Rupal earned a Bachelor of Commerce in accounting and finance, as well as a Master of Commerce in international finance and banking from the University of Mumbai. She later earned an MBA in finance from the University of Rochester, where she was a Rotary Foundation Scholar.

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https://cfasocietyindia.com/2019/12/02/session-by-mr-vinod-sethi-at-value-investing-pioneers-summitvips-new-delhi-2019/amp/?__twitter_impression=true