Glenmark - Will Innovation Pay?

To add few more points

Glenmark India formulations minus Fabiflu grew 12-14% in Q1 … So yes fabiflu has contributed but india generics has also grown

Only Pharma company to guide double digit growth in US (assuming a constant currency growth here)

Finally company is giving more importance to debt reduction i.e. targeted at 1600 crores this year and next two years equivalent to their free cash generations

Monroe facility has commercialised and capex on Monroe is over…so we see reduced capex too going forward

Degrowth of EU and ROW was bit seasonal as per mangement

Ichnos Outlicensing
Atleast one Outlicensing expected in this FY

Launches expected
Expecting few major launches this month (no names disclosed)
FabiSpray this year in India

Disclosure - Invested , tracking actively and expecting brokerages to rerate it sooner than later

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Sanotize which has been in licensed in india and 15 asian countries looks a good opportunity for both covid protection as well as cure. Company applied for emergency use authorizaton an currently phase 3 trials underway. Launch expected by q4.

There is a possibility that glenmark will be manfg it for the world markets as well.

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Anybody following the Company ?? Why has it fallen from Top to below 500 so rapidly ??

Q1FY22 was great and exceptional for the co due to covid sales but Q2 will be very poor for the same reason but there are quite a few positive developments shaping up like tie up with Sanotize and ryaltris and monetization of assets if these add up things will change positively and fast moreover the fall if one sees on weekly timeframe although huge is on very low volumes comparatively to shake weaker hands , this stock is certainly not a steady one , its highly volatile one but i see good turnaround once Q2 results out in Nov or probably even before that as mkts is forward looking always so lets fasten our seatbelts.

Q2 will be bad if you compare it with q1 fy22 or q2 fy21 both of which had exceptional covid sales.

But what about reduction in Interest costs ?? This should be substantial this quarter (Q2), as they got the proceeds via the IPO OFS of Glenmark Life Sciences.

https://www.indiaratings.co.in/PressRelease?pressReleaseID=56516&title=India%20Ratings%20Revises%20Glenmark%20Pharmaceuticals%20Outlook%20to%20Positive%20Affirms%20IND%20AA

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glenmark results announced yesterday , seems good and due to GLS ipo proceeds and repayment from them , their net debt has seen drastic reduction of 1400 crores should be positive for the co.
additionally upcoming dividend income of approximately 90 cr from GLS should further help them and Fabispray from tie up with Sanotize firm, may get quick India approval in ongoing COVID clinical trials by Dec- Jan can be a game changer as it can cure as well as prevent it , along with opportunity to export to few other asian countries in future for which it has license from Sanotize.

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q2 concall update

India—

Degrowth this qtr of 7% is on acct of lower covid sales, noncovid base portfolio grew 16.7%. NO2 fabispray expected to be launched in q4.

Remo FDC being well received in market, also checked this at few pharmacies.

USA—was flat, 2 launches and 11 new ANDA. Total 18-20 NDA expected for 21-22. Munroe to be opex positive next year. 5 ANDA from munroe. PFUDA for Ryaltris Jan 22. Brovana was recalled and expected to be relaunched shortly

ROW – good growth due to covid related products. In my view ryaltris also contributed in this

Europe—6.3% growth, pace of inlicensing to slow down as have a sizeable portfolio now. Ryaltris approved, launched in few markets and launch expected in balance in q3/q4. Titrpium DPI doing well

API—10-12% sales from covid related products in q2 . CDMO growing meaningfully one more customer to be live in q4 in CDMO. Added capacity in q2, adding more in q4 & in q2 fy23 and so on i.e. doubling capacity by fy24.

At least one outlicensing deal expected this FY.

Ichnos fundraise after data for isb 1342 is out. As per ichnos qtrly update enrolment for biweekly doses complete only for weekly dose pending. They have added 6 sites in France and few in USA to speed up enrolment. Data Expected by feb.

Summary-- cashflow to improve with debt reduction by 1400 cr in this qtr , reduction in capex and R&D, 10-20 mn usd expected from outlicensing, base business growth of 10 to 15%. Mgmt. upbeat on ryaltris .

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Ichnos initiating revenue stream now , very positive development and may be many more to come in future.

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2 key developments I had been waiting for have happened - debt reduction and initiation of monetization of Ichnos portfolio. But the market does not seem too impressed. Probably due to the bad run the stock has had since 2015, regaining market fancy won’t be easy. Wanted to know views of other shareholders.
Thanks.

Glenmark missed a game or two while listing its API business . That was sentiment damper .

Look at recent API listing it is quoting 9 times to sales whereas Glenmark life science with better history of earning, ROCE & growth profile is quoting at 3/4 times sales …

But if your are long term investor . It is still one the cheapest stock if look at mix of optionalities like Indian business , New global brands , NCE monetisation and API

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Ichnos_CorpDeck_November11.24.2021.pdf (1.5 MB)

Ichnos Detail information

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What is the market opportunity for Ryaltris?
How big the allergic rhinitis market and how much can Ryaltris command in that market?

Allergic rhinitis mkt is 17 bn usd. Theere is a post above which gives the break up of opportunity for ryaltris. Post no. 82

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Glenmark Specialty S.A. (Switzerland) receives NDA Approval by the United States
Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Ryaltris™ Nasal Spray for the Treatment of
Symptoms of Seasonal Allergic Rhinitis in Adults and Pediatric Patients 12 Years of
Age and Older
 Ryaltris™ is a metered, fixed-dose, aqueous suspension, prescription drug product nasal spray
approved by the FDA for the treatment of symptoms of Seasonal Allergic Rhinitis in adults and
pediatric patients 12 years of age and older.
 Ryaltris™ will be marketed and distributed in the United States through our partner Hikma
Specialty U.S.A. Inc., Columbus, OH.
Mumbai, India; New Jersey; USA; January 14, 2022: Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Limited, a research-led, global
integrated pharmaceutical company announced that its fully owned subsidiary Glenmark Specialty S.A.
(Switzerland), received FDA approval on its New Drug Application (NDA) for Ryaltris™, an innovative, fixed-
dose (metered), prescription, combination drug product nasal spray for the treatment of symptoms of
Seasonal Allergic Rhinitis in adults and pediatric patients 12 years of age and older in the United States.
“The FDA’s approval of Ryaltris™ represents a major milestone for Glenmark and clearly supports our efforts
to bring innovative treatment options in our key therapeutic areas.” said Mr. Robert Crockart Chief
Commercial Officer of Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Limited. “With this NDA approval, we look forward to
bringing this new medicine to physicians and their patients for the treatment of symptoms of seasonal
allergic rhinitis, including nasal and ocular symptoms.”
Ryaltris™ will be marketed and distributed in the United States (US) by Hikma Specialty U.S.A., Inc., as part of
its exclusive licensing agreement with Glenmark Specialty S.A (Switzerland).
About Ryaltris™
Ryaltris™ is a metered, fixed-dose, aqueous suspension, prescription drug product nasal spray approved by
the FDA for the treatment of symptoms associated with Seasonal Allergic Rhinitis. Each unit of Ryaltris™ nasal
spray contains 665 mcg of olopatadine hydrochloride, a histamine-1(H1)-receptor inhibitor, and 25 mcg of
mometasone furoate, a corticosteroid. The combination drug product nasal spray is indicated for the
treatment of symptoms associated with seasonal allergic rhinitis in adults and pediatric patients 12 years of
age and older. The safety and effectiveness of Ryaltris™ in pediatric patients younger than 12 years of age has
not been established.
The recommended daily dose for Ryaltris™ is 2 sprays in each nostril twice daily.
Ryaltris™ will be marketed and distributed in the United States through our partner Hikma Specialty U.S.A.

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