Is EKC expensive or cheap? Tried answering this question with 2 scenarios. One assuming 50 crore runrate from Q4 and the other assuming 40 crore run rate.
Everest Math
He’s guiding for additional 15%-20% topline growth, give his run rate is 464 crores types a Quarter.
With Phase 1 of brownfield that just came online. Incrementally he will do 50 crores of sales a Quarter (200 crores annually)
Phase 2 comes online in Q2 FY23. That can generate 100 crores of additional.
He will be closing the year with 1735 crores of sales (assuming 50 crore starts adding next Q)
Next FY
Q1 he does:- 514 crores (assuming 50 Cr bump up)
Q2 he does:- 540 crore types
Q3:- 540 crores types
Q4 again:- 540 crores types.
Rev Goes to 2134 crores
Ebitda Margin guidance is 22-24%
At 22% he does 470 crore Ebitda
At 24% he does 512 crores.
Sandbagged Math* given these are ok-ok companies
Everest Math
He’s guiding for additional 15%-20% topline growth, give his run rate is 464 crores types a Quarter.
With Phase 1 of brownfield that just came online. Incrementally he will do 40 crores of sales a Quarter (160 crores annually)
Phase 2 comes online in Q2 FY23. That can generate 100 crores of additional.
He will be closing the year with 1725 crores of sales (assuming 40 crore starts adding next Q)
Next FY
Q1 he does:- 504 crores (assuming 40 Cr bump up)
Q2 he does:- 530 crore types
Q3:- 530 crores types
Q4 again:- 530 crores types.
Rev Goes to 2094 crores
Ebitda Margin guidance is 22%
At 22% he does 460 crore Ebitda.
Disc:- uncomfortable with lack of numeracy from MDs side. Don’t think it will get a higher multiple than 7-9x ebitda. Pruned my stake substantially post the call, Return per stress per unit counts much more at the end. Can’t track a co, where MD doesn’t know the numbers every call.