Dinesh Sairam's Portfolio: Requesting Feedback

Yes, I still hold Heritage Foods. And I might actually add more of the stock soon (Due to the fall). But no, I have no idea why the stock is falling. If you find out, do let me know.

Change in Govt in AP I guess

Hey,

We were toying with the idea of providing insights into an investors portfolio on Tijori, and thought we’d test it out on some of the portfolio’s uploaded on Valuepickr. Let me know if you find this useful:

Pl Note: we had ignored Goodyear & DHP for some internal tech reasons.

Dinesh’s Portfolio Break-Up:

Portfolio%201

Portfolio Summary:

• Good product diversification
• Low geography diversification
• Your current portfolio’s risk adjusted returns are above average compared to mutual funds with similar risk profile
• Your portfolio’s PE of 16.86 is the lowest among mutual funds with similar risk profile

Product Exposure:

Product%20Exposure

Geography Exposure:
Geography exposure is calculated based on the % of revenue the portfolio overall derieves from each geography.

Geog%20Exposure

• IndusInd accounts for largest share by invested amount, however Ion Exchange is the greatest source of risk for your portfolio

• Risk weightage has been calculated as per the Risk Parity framework by Bridgewater. Link here

Dinesh’s Portfolio vs Similar Mutual Funds

Correlation Indicator

Portfolio Shareholding Pattern


Over & above this, we have the financial and op metrics trends of each company in your portfolio, didnt share it here since the post was getting too long: )

Let me know what you think.

19 Likes

Oh, that’s excellent!

You’ve outdone yourself. Probably something I’d suggest is removing the ‘Cash’ component, since that’s usually changing frequently and you’d be unable to track frequently. But if you actually can by my posts here, then great.

Low geography diversification seems an advantage these days considering global trade wars happening:)

I don’t think this update is all that necessary. But I have been asked a couple of times on how much cash I have at this point in my PF and whether I have churned my PF to “make room” during the on-going market decline. First of all, my portfolio remains the same:

As you can see, the share of Cash has indeed gone up a little (~6%+), but I have not sold a single share since my last update about a month back. This is the most cash I could muster and sadly, I may not really get to 20% like I wanted to earlier.

So this post is just to say that I may start deploying the remaining cash, mostly in my own PF, and perhaps from the watch list. Despite the broad-based correction, the watch list has now considerably shortened: CRISIL, DFM Foods, Godrej Consumer Products, Jamna Auto, Maruti Suzuki and Nilkamal. Clearly, I cannot talk about CRISIL, but I would love to talk about anything else in my PF or watch list at this exciting juncture in the market.

An interesting tidbit is that Year-to-Date in 2019, my PF is actually up by a small percentage. I have been luckily spared by Mr. Market. Heritage Foods is the one stock which stands alone (Ironically) with a ~30% correction, with Cupid closely following with a ~15% correction. Most of my other PF stocks have corrected anywhere between 3-10% only. Of course, the sole gladiator in the mayhem is Ion Exchange, whose meteoric rise has had a big part in my PF still staying in green YTD.

I will update once more after I deplete my cash balance. And hopefully, the despondence of the market would have turned around for the better.

13 Likes

Thanks for your post. Wanted to know how do we calculate YTD returns of our portfolio unless we manually keep note of 1 Jan prices of each stock or is there a way to find in the tool or securities provider you use?

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You can use Google Sheets to get the price on a given date. Check out how I have done it here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W0ApcJaetYFNa1eii-Ek0zLr0i2UqaqWnypZ-xo54o8/edit?usp=sharing

5 Likes

I have been doing it manually so far. But I plan to port it to Google Sheets some day. They have great tools for an individual investors to track their portfolio and the returns from it.

The example provided by @Ferrari1976 is wonderful. But I personally care more about the yearly/overall IRR (Inclusive of Dividends) and a bench-marking with NIFTY 50 TRI, NIFTY Midcap 150 TRI and NIFTY Small Cap 250 TRI.

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Will suggest “My stocks portfolio & widget” app by Peeksoft. It includes your buying/selling activity and dividend effects into computing annualized IRR. Though you have to update the dividends manually.

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Trendlyne has a good option.

You can upload your portfolio with your buy prices and date, and it will calculate daily as well as YTD returns. Then if you want more there is a paid version where you will get more.

You can use askkuber.com (subscription is relatively lows about Rs 350 per year). It alerts on dividends. Calculates IRR automatically.
(Note: been a subscriber for a while, no other interest in them)

1 Like

Do you still hold Goodyear India? If yes, then it would help if you create a Stock thread on it. Your stock & valuation threads are very informative. I know you have a blog post on it, but a stock thread would help us to interact on that company.

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I still do, yes. It is still one of my largest holdings (Goodyear, IndusInd and Heritage are almost the same at 15% each). I noticed that VP didn’t have a thread on Goodyear too. I’ll see what I can do. Thank you for the suggestion.

3 Likes

Hi Dinesh

I recently started tracking ION exchange. I see you are holding this in your portfolio. I believe this company will benefit from govt program to provide water to everyone. What are your thoughts on the company and current valuations?

I read your blog on RBL Bank. What are your thoughts now that the valuation is in your comfort zone. What changed for you?

Obviously the fundamentals of the bank itself has not changed. It is more a question of whether the top management knew the insider trade was happening or not. If they knew it, then further it is a question of whether you want to be associated with such a management.

Now imagine if we get a news tomorrow that those involved in the insider trading allegations are kicked out and the CEO releases a statement saying that the management was not involved in this in any way (Let’s say with concrete proof). Then obviously the share is going to climb up again.

So the question of valuation is not relevant here. As I’ve mentioned in my blog post, in bank you are mostly betting on the banker himself (i.e. the top management). Way more than all other businesses, a bank’s fortunes are tied with the management’s skill in banking.

Finally, I wouldn’t want to diversify just for the sake of diversification. If I was forced to invest in a bank, I would pile up on IndusInd itself.

3 Likes

If you have anything specific in your mind, I would love to have a conversation.

But generally, I like the company. I have argued for it ever since this thread began, even when it was tagged mediocre by some folks. The opportunity size is considerably big and Ion Exchange is just getting started.

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My worry would be if senior level staff is getting indulged in shares trading at such a large scale ,then they may be playing with numbers also to make short-term killing.

Hi Dinesh, what is your view on va tech wabag. They are also in the same water treatment space and the opportunity size is huge, but the price is declining. Though I do not wish to have the price as one of the factor for the comparison,On a general note (without stock movement) with opportunity scale and execution would like know your views.