Dinesh Sairam's Portfolio: Requesting Feedback

That’s a very good question.

An apparent problem with long term investing (As opposed to trading) is the long feedback loop. You can make a lot of money on the wrong bets over 4-5 years and come to the conclusion that that’s the best way to invest. Then over the next half a decade, you may pick similarly bad stocks and lose out on a lot of money. It can happen vice-versa too, even with ‘good’ stocks. You will learn the true lesson only at the end of ten years. Maybe more. That’s a cross we all have to bear.

In more complex terms, a feedback loop is called a ‘Mutual Causal Interaction’. There’s a short TED video about it:

Farnam Street has a longer article, in case you are interested:

So, for me:

  1. I currently think understanding companies within my Circle of Competence, assigning a value to them based on estimated future cash flows and purchasing at a good discount to that value will allow me to earn good returns over the long term.
  2. So like our earlier example, I will have to see how this works out over the period of 4-5 years. In the process, I will collect evidence for or against my methods. So, some parts of my method may change completely and some parts of my method may solidify.
  3. Then this new system, with new moving parts, will influence the way I understand, value and buy companies.

The circle goes on. Thankfully, forums like VP kind of speed up the lead time. I have known things about some companies here, which I wouldn’t be able to if I hadn’t been here. I have learnt valuable lessons which have had a positive impact on the way I invest. And yes, some opinions haven’t affected that process so much (Like the claim that I should only invest in ‘quality’ companies), largely because they have been anecdotal.

Another way in which I have been lucky is that I started nibbling at the market during the top of a bull market. I invested a lot during the past few months and if this can indeed be considered the bottom of a bear market, then I have also invested quite a bit during the bottom of the market. I was lucky enough to see both the extremes of the market within a matter of 1-2 years.

Personally, I have the benchmark of making at least 16-17% CAGR over the long term (Say, 10 years from now). If over the course of this, my feedback loop tells me that I’m not that good of an investor, I might start shifting more of my PF to Mutual Funds. If I am able to achieve that, I might continue.

In the end, maybe I will be proved wrong, or may be I won’t. But the important thing is, every single outcome will impact the way I think about investing and hopefully, for the better. This learning process excites me the most. Good returns or good money, if anything, will only be a bonus.

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Thanks for your candid and well articulated note. If I may ask…Also I am amazed when I note that fact that you have read many books and follow articles and videos. How much time do you spend time on stock market and investing per week? Assuming you have a full time job too.
Thanks again for your valuable contribution on this forum.
Cheers,
Dinesh

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Honestly, I don’t spend as much time as I’d like to reading books and articles. I need to get on @phreakv6’s level one of these days.

My work timings are from 2 PM-10 PM or so. I read books before bed time for about an hour. In the morning, I usually read business news and the articles related to it (Say, an hour?). I listen to investing podcasts and/or watch videos (Varied topics) while I eat. That’s about it for the daily routine. Some days, I also stay up late and answer questions on Quora (Mostly on Finance and Investing).

During weekends, if I am not otherwise equipped, I get work done on my blog, which takes up either half a day or the entire day depending on how well I know the topic at hand (A company valuation or a post on the theoretical aspects of valuation). My biggest gripe is that I ‘waste’ the rest of my weekend watching serials or movies. I seriously need to cut back on this and do something more value additive.

If all this sounds tiring, it’s not. I enjoy doing all of this. When you love doing something, time isn’t really a constraint.

And since you asked, here’s a list of books on Finance which I have either read or about to read. Here’s a link for a list of resources that can be useful to a beginner in finance (Sorry for the linking to Quora, the list is a tad long).

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Thank you Dinesh. I will look forward to put more effort myself

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My PF remains largely the same, with Cash being ~20% now. But this new-found enthusiasm in the markets has left me in a limbo. So, I’m spending more time in understanding the businesses in my shortlist. For instance, I studied Petronet LNG for about 2-3 days last week. I will probably make a separate thread, but I ultimately decided the stock is not for me.

There are a few more stocks in my Watchlist: Amara Raja Batteries, Bandhan Bank (Or Gruh), CCL Products, CanFin Homes, Cyient, Eicher Motors, Godrej Consumer Products, MRF, Maruti Suzuki, Motherson Sumi Systems, NESCO, Nilkamal, Orient Electric, Shemaroo Entertainment and Voltas.

Most of these businesses I largely understand, but I think they do not offer enough Margin of Safety (At least, not yet). I’m happy to monitor them / incrementally learn more about their lines meanwhile.

Cyient is the trickiest one, because Technology isn’t really my strong suit. It’s just that Cyient is currently is a fix what with the Boeing issue catching them by surprise (They released a press statement saying there will be an unexpected slowdown in revenues). I intuitively think this one-time scare can prove to be a good investing opportunity, but I do not know enough about the business to pass a complete judgement yet. So, any resources (Apart from the content in VP’s Cyient thread itself) would be extremely helpful. Those who are in this industry / related field, please do help.

Also an interesting update is that I did this about a month back:

I have already read the letters. But I’m glad to have them in a bound format. I read these every week whenever I have time. One can never get enough of Warren Buffett, I’m telling you. Howard Marks and Michael Burry are also quite good (Mr. Burry is surprisingly refreshing to read).

Most of these and some other great resources are available online for free:

And this I should have done a while back, but Prof. Aswath Damodaran has been putting up his Spring 2019 classes online. I think they offer a trove of knowledge for anyone willing to look and learn.

Undergraduate Valuation

MBA Valuation

MBA Corporate Finance

That’s about it. I’m also halfway through the book “On a clear day, you can see General Motors” by John DeLorean, which is ironic, given the current auto slowdown in India. Let’s see what happens by the time I finish the book. Maybe I’ll get Maruti Suzuki at a better price. Wishful thinking.

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Thanks Dinesh. This post gives lot of inspiration to read more. I am big fan of Prof. Damodaran and following all his videos, great resource for investors.

is there any other channel on youtube (apart from Damodaran) which gives finance classes for free?

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At the scale of the Prof? No. But there are some good finance channels, though:

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Hi Dinesh, can you give your reviews on Crisil if possible? I know you mentioned in one another post that you work there. So i was not sure if you can comment about the company. Crisil is one of the best company in credit rating having good ROE and ROCE with promoter holding of 67%. So I got interested in this company. I looked at CARE. But promoter holding is 0 in CARE. I didn’t analyze the company in detail. I think current and in future too role of credit rating will have huge impact on loans, credit card, bond and even buying a stock. I thought of getting your opinion on the company.

I cannot. :slight_smile: But I can tell you that CRISIL’s website and Annual Report are well designed. They should offer a load of information. Besides that, as I always say, work culture is extremely important for a Service-based company. You should ideally call an insider you know and have a lengthy conversation about the company over tea. :slight_smile:

Thanks for the honest comments Sir. I will try to find some insider and discuss with that person :slight_smile:

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Hi @dineshssairam
I know that you have exited DHFL after lot of wait.
But considering the present developments around acquisition and change in management as well as separations of wholesale and retail loan books in hands of two different management, would you want to rethink about investment in it?

Or once you exit a stock, you should stop getting in the mess again?

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Absolutely.

My primary concern is that the new management shouldn’t be looking to sell the company for parts. If there’s a new management and they are interested in running the company as such, I think I’ll be interested in DHFL again.

A minor, secondary concern is that the company has sold many of its good assets in the fight to stay alive. What they’re left holding is substandard at best. Obviously, a new management will look at this too. I’d like their strategy plan on how they aim to salvage this situation, if there’s going to be one at all.

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I have been getting a LOT of requests along the lines of how to get started with investing in equities. Here’s my humble attempt at putting together resources that will help someone interested in investing to take their first steps.

Step 1: Devise an Investing Framework

“To invest successfully, one doesn’t need a stratospheric IQ… What’s needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework.”Warren Buffett .

We start with something that’s inherently redundant. The first step in the process of figuring out how to invest effectively, is to have an effective framework of how to invest. Confused? Let me provide you with a couple of examples:

A framework is essentially a set of rules stating, “In my investing life, I will do certain things and I will not do certain things.” The framework should tell you how to react to any situation you may come across in the market. You need not adhere to any of the frameworks I provided as an example above, but make sure you create your own. You may start with a compact, rule-of-thumb sort of framework and develop it to a full-fledged model later on. Don’t worry if you can’t get a complete picture immediately. Rome was not built in a day.

The most difficult part is not creating the framework itself, but actually sticking to it. Investment failure comes from changing your mind far too often. A framework keeps it in one place.

Step 2: Read. Read. Read.

Read 500 pages like this every day. That’s how knowledge works. It builds up, like compound interest .”— Warren Buffett .

The importance of constant learning cannot be overstated. You must become a learning machine. Like Steve Jobs said, you can only connect the dots looking backward. You never know when a specific knowledge you picked up will help you. Along the way, it mostly definitely will and you’ll be grateful that you read about it all those years back. Here are a few resources to help you get started with that:

Of course, by ‘read’, I actually mean ‘learn’. If you are able to read magazines, blogs or watch videos on YouTube, that would do quite well too. Get your hands on anything that adds to your knowledge and just read, read, read.

Step 3: Understand the basics of Accounting, Finance and (preferably) Economics

" You have to understand accounting and you have to understand the nuances of accounting. It’s the language of business and it’s an imperfect language, but unless you are willing to put in the effort to learn accounting - how to read and interpret financial statements - you really shouldn’t select stocks yourself. "— Warren Buffett .

They say Accounting is the language of business and Finance is the life-blood of business. Without understanding the basics of these, you are not going to get far on the road of successful investing. I will go far to say that an understanding of Economics is also necessary. Use the following references to slowly ease into the general Accounting, Finance and Economics concepts:

Once you are done with the basics, try looking at the Annual Reports of the companies you like. Look at their Statement of Accounts and try to understand every number. Everyone likes to read differently, but this primer of reading a 10-K (Annual Report) lays out a DIY.

Note down any doubts you have and see if you can get them clarified from someone who’s an expert. Remember, practice makes it easier.

Step 4: Define your Circle of Competence

Everybody’s got a different circle of competence. The important thing is not how big the circle is. The important thing is staying inside the circle. ”— Warren Buffett .

The quote above is everything you need to know for establishing this very important step.

Time is limited. You cannot dedicate your energy to every opportunity you come across. So when you first hear about a company, admit to yourself honestly if you are competent enough to understand the company’s business. If you don’t know enough, move on. Just move on. There are plenty of other first left in the sea. This is easier said than done. Information overload is a big problem in this age of abundant data. Try to avoid the clutter by drawing a boundary and vowing to never step out of it.

Of course, it would be ill-advised that you remain within the same Circle of Competence forever. You can try to expand your knowledge of things over the years and the Circle will grow right along. The idea is always being honest with yourself and always knowing the boundary.

Step 5: Scout for Investment Opportunities

You do things when the opportunities come along. I’ve had periods in my life when I’ve had a bundle of ideas come along, and I’ve had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I’ll do something. If not, I won’t do a damn thing .”— Warren Buffett .

Investment opportunities do not appear out of thin air. You have to constantly (Not obsessively) be on the lookout for them. You may not have to invest in 25 ideas a year, but there’s nothing wrong in shortlisting so many. Even if you end up rejecting the majority of them for whatever reason, the process is definitely going to help you in the future.

Step 5: Research a Company

You’re neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You’re right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right – that’s the only thing that makes you right. And if your facts and reasoning are right, you don’t have to worry about anybody else. ”— Warren Buffett .

Once you’re equipped with basic financial knowledge and a handful of companies you are interested in, you will be ready to look at a live case. Unfortunately, there are no straight-forward guidelines to researching a company.

Start with the company’s website, Annual Reports and Concall notes. If you are able to talk with someone in the company’s value chain (A customer, a supplier) and an insider (An employee), that would round it up. If this is not possible, at least talk with someone working in the same industry. Your aim, at the end of the ordeal, should be to understand the company and its transactions enough to rival an insider’s knowledge.

Once you are done, you should be able to write down 10 distinct, well-defined paragraphs on why you should invest in the company and a few more points on how the company could be taken for a ride. Some would call it an ‘Investment Thesis’—short notes on what excites you about the company and what are the potential risks.

The book “Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits” by Philip A. Fisher could help nudge you in the right direction. Once again, don’t let the book constrain you. Feel free to follow any process you want. Let the book be a guide, not a blueprint.

Step 6: Perform a Financial Analysis

“Beware the investment activity that produces applause; the great moves are usually greeted by yawns.”— Warren Buffett .

In the earlier step, you understood the story behind a specific set of companies. In this step, you will look at the numbers of those specific set of companies. After all, a company is nothing but a bunch of stories and a set of numbers that keep the stories grounded in reality. The following resources may help you in this regard:

Please do note that it is not only vital that you perform this for the company in question, but also for comparable competitors. For instance, if you find that the company you are interested in has a Profit Margin of 10%, while their competitors have 12% or above, it helps you ask the question “Why does my company have lesser Margins than the industry?” The aim of this very exercise is that you ask successive questions like this and find out the answers.

In fact, you can also cross-verify your stories about a specific company using the numbers reported by them. In your research, if you found out that the management have claimed that they are cost-leaders, then it holds to logic that their Margins should be higher than the industry or at the least—their current Margins should be higher than their previous Margins. You can do several fact-checks like this. This is how you build the conviction about a company.

At the end of this long and draining exercise, you will have looked at both the sides of the prism—the stories and the numbers of a company. The next logical step, then, is to put them both together.

Step 7: Value a Company

Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. ”— Warren Buffett .

Regardless of how good a company is that you have identified for investment purposes, you can still screw up by overpaying for it. It is of utmost importance that you understand, roughly, how much a company is worth and then pay even lesser. That is the sure shot way to investment success.

As for as Valuation itself is concerned, I will not pretend that it is in fact easy to understand. I personally believe that either a Discounted Cash Flow or a Dividend Discount Model is the best way to value a company. However, the ‘Multiples Valuation’ is the most often (ab)used mode of Valuation of companies. I will leave links to both and allow you to decide which one suits you the best.

Remember, even after you find out the rough worth of a company, it is advisable that you pay a lot lesser than that to acquire it. Here’s why:

Step 8: Maintain a ‘Not-to-do’ Checklist

It’s good to learn from your mistakes. It’s better to learn from other people’s mistakes .”— Warren Buffett .

Even after you’ve performed even single step meticulously, it helps to tick off things in a checklist to make sure you are most definitely not at any sort of fault before pulling the trigger. The list, at its simplest form, should be a collection of all the mistakes ever done in the investing world—ranging from the mistakes you did yourself, to that of your fellow investors, to that of the investing giants around the world.

The list will grow continuously through your investing life, that’s for sure. But be warned that nothing can satisfy 100% of your checklist. Set a nominal limit—like 70%—and proceed from there. Make sure that every single investment decision of yours passes this checklist—whether it’s 60% or 80% is immaterial. The idea is to put a hard stop to impulsive investment decisions.

If you have this framework down to the last detail, you’ve already got a one-up over most of the investing crowd—which is still working off of stock tips and market momentum. But as Benjamin Graham put it, it’s easy to earn more-than-average returns, but very difficult to earn superior returns.

If you attempt to earn big returns, you will fail at first. And that’s okay . Really. Failure is the best teacher and that philosophy is no different in the world of investment. If you want to be an extremely successful investor, you will have to invest and fail—fail again—fail better. All the best.

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Hi Dinesh. Great post. Just wanted to understand what has been your own PF CAGR since inception and how you look at that metric.

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‘Since inception’ is a slight misnomer. I actually started investing from the June of 2016. But this was when I was in MBA, so I was investing right out of my pocket money and money I earned by participating in several B-Fests. The bulk of my current portfolio was invested just within a year. So, you could say I actually started investing just a year or so back.

I am currently trying to get my transactions in line and building a proper year-on-year IRR calculations of my returns. I can share it once I’m able to finish that properly. But if you’d like a brief overview, I can do that.

2016

I was impressed a lot by Mr. Graham and Mr. Buffett. So, I essentially did a bunch of cigar butt trades (Some names were SBI, Raymond, COSYN) and they turned out to be quite good (Of course, aided by the raging bull market back then). If I had to guess, the returns would have been >300% (Yes). But as I mentioned, this was on a very small base of money.

2017

I started realizing that this can’t go on forever. Just like Mr. Munger made Mr. Buffett realize that cigar butt investing won’t scale, I realized that I had to get my affairs in order. I had been making great returns, yes, but I was disappointed that I had no clue how I made those returns. It mostly felt like luck. So, I took to action.

I call 2017 my ‘lost year’, because I was essentially selling off most of my portfolio (By the end, I held only HDFC Bank). I read several different books on investing, joined VP, started my blog and so on. I was sure that I will start investing again only after I had built an investment framework for myself. I devised one at in the November of 2017. You can see in my above post that I wrote about it in my blog in December 2017. Finally, I started slowly investing towards the December of 2017.

I am not sure about the returns here, but I would say it doesn’t matter, because I wasn’t really “investing” in 2017.

2018

2018 was probably when I actually started investing seriously. You can track a lot about what I did during this time in this thread itself. I started it just weeks after my initial blog post. The first post in this thread is on Jan 11, 2018.

The returns, as you can easily guess, would be closer to the returns in the Small/Midcap space. I am guessing probably a negative 30-35% and maybe a little worse. The bulk of it can be attributed to DHFL, which I completely own up to.

2019

2019 is again important because I invested a lot more in 2019 than I did in 2018 (I mean, fresh funds). In fact, so much so that the weighted average holding period of my portfolio (Weighted by initial investment) is just ~0.60 (Or 7.2 Months). So you could also say that I have actually started investing only during this period.

I would say the CAGR during this period would be positive, since we saw a general recovery in the markets. But again, I don’t know exactly how much.

If it is not apparent already, then I have to tell you that I care very little about what I make in the short term. I’m following a process and the returns are simply an outcome of that process. I would much rather concentrate on bettering my process and I should assume that the outcome will take care of itself. Regarding what I think about long term returns, I would suggest that you read this post:

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Very rightly said, results are an outcome of the process, the focus has to be on the process than the outcome, very difficult to adhere though (at-least for me)

Thanks,
Pandi

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Pre-election update on PF. I have invested most of my leftover cash yesterday in a flurry of last minute purchases. This is how the PF looks like now:

The latest entry is, of course, IndusInd Bank. A few key points on why I invested here:

  1. First off, I understand that there are risks here. Otherwise, a good bank like IndusInd has no reason to correct ~30%+ from the top. The key risk being the exposure to ILFS and other questionable loans to Essel, ADAG, DHFL and Zee. At this point, I’d say the situation is like a ‘mini Yes Bank’. One more minor risk is the succession. Mr. Ramesh Sobti has been amazing so far. But as per RBI’s latest ruling, he has to step down owing to age.

  2. The exposure to ILFS is around Rs. 3000 Crore, out of which 70% for Rs. 2000 Crore and 25% for Rs. 1000 Crore has been provided (So, that’s Rs. 1650 Crores). Ex-ILFS, the exposure to the above mentioned questionable groups is ~Rs. 3600 Crores (Approx). Apart from all this, I assume there are other NPAs amounting to ~Rs.1000 Crores (Approx). In all, ~Rs. 6000 Crores can be expected as losses in the future. Since RBI is tightening the screws around bad loans recognition, I should hope that more provisioning will be on the way. And that’s good.

  3. I have indeed performed a valuation of IndusInd. I have yet to make some adjustments for accuracy. But in short, I believed that IndusInd provided value even after accounting for 100% of the NPAs and a 30% Margin of Safety. I will post it here if I manage to knock out the kinks.

  4. I should hope that the brand in IndusInd and their size of operations should easily attract a good MD/CEO.

  5. The expected merger with Bharat Financial should bring in more scale. The key to the merger (Well, to most mergers) is how quick the integration happens. We’ll just have to wait and see that.

Also increased stake in Heritage Foods a bit.

  1. Decent results QoQ, considering it was winter. Winter is often low pickings for pure milk players. Cows produce lower milk in winter. Sellers instead have to rely on a mix of cow and buffalo milk, buffalo milk being costlier than cow’s milk by quite a bit. Excellent results YoY, but this is largely due to huge one-off in September results.

  2. Again, a considerable risk I see is tomorrow’s results in Andhra Pradesh. Mr. YS Jagan has promised to reopen Chittoor Dairy and provide Rs. 4 subsidy to milk farmers in Andhra, should he come to power. Andhra’s treasury wouldn’t really allow this (At least not in a hurry), but if he comes to power and manages to pull it off, it could play a spoilsport for Heritage. Situations like this is why Margin of Safety exists. But any way, my thesis for investing in Heritage is based on growth outside of Andhra and growth in VADP, which is beyond politics in AP. I guess we will have to wait and see whether my expectations are valid or not.

Increased token stakes in Cupid, Dhabriya Polywood and Ion Exchange. Cupid’s upcoming result should be especially interesting. Last quarter, the stock fell off a bit because of supposedly “bad” results. The truth was that some accounting adjustment has been made and the next (This) quarter result should reflect the excluded sales from the previous quarter. So, we should see a supposedly “massive” increase in Sales, Profit and Cashflows. It will be amusing to see the market react to that.

Shortlist currently looks like this: Ambika Cotton, Avenue Supermarts, CCL Products, Cyient, DFM Foods, Eicher Motors, Godrej Consumer Products, HDFC AMC, Indian Terrain, L&T Technology, Maruti Suzuki, Motherson Sumi, MRF, NESCO, Oriental Carbon, PSP Projects and Shemaroo Entertainment.

However, what with only a small fraction of cash left over, I’m not hopeful of any near-term purchases unless I find some really amazing deal (In my PF, shortlist or otherwise). Mostly, I’d be trying to save up as much as possible and bring back the cash position to ~20%, which is my comfort level.

Tomorrow should be very interesting and perhaps the week after that. I’m personally going to sit back and watch the marching band. Ta-ta!

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Hi Sairam,

Please let me know B&H rational to buy…when other good players like Goodricke available to cheap valuations when Tea prices are going up since Feb 2019.

Please advise.

Hi Dinesh
Have you checked DCB Bank at any point? when time permits please do a valuation analysis on DCB would love to see your analysis on it. Thanks for the informative valuations you do in your blog.
Regards

Dinesh, a small note on IndusInd which reflects poorly on the bank

Should corporates & new banks be teaching IndusInd on how to run the bank?

Sometime back, IndusInd Bank refused to publicly declare its total exposure to the ILFS Group. Fortunately, good sense prevailed, and it disclosed that it had a Rs 2000 cr exposure to the parent company and Rs 1004 cr exposure to the SPVs (subsidiaries). There is merit in the argument that the SPV’s are operating companies and the haircut will be minimal, if any.

However, what doesn’t cut ice is IndusInd’s handling of its exposure to the parent company. The parent company is only a holding company with hardly any assets and a standalone debt of around Rs 16,000 cr as on March 2018. It is generally believed that recovery of exposure to the parent will be minimal, if any.

Sensible corporates like Symphony Limited and Apollo Tyres have taken a 100% write off on their exposure to the parent. Even a newbie bank like Bandhan Bank took a 100% write off on its exposure to the parent in the December 2018 quarter itself.

Surprisingly, IndusInd has decided to take only a 70% provision on its Rs 2000 cr to the parent. No prizes for guessing why. If it decided to take the additional Rs 600 cr provision, it would have reported a loss during Q4 & it would have seriously dented its profit for FY2019.

Exposure to ILFS parent (Rs crore) Provision taken
Symphony Ltd 21.5 100%
Apollo Tyres Ltd 200 100%
Bandhan Bank Ltd 385 100%
IndusInd Bank Ltd 2000 70%

While it is the prerogative of the bank to decide on the level of provisioning, it is a sad moment for a bank celebrating 25 years of its existence for corporates & newbie banks to guide it on how to run a conservative ship.

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