Delta Corp - A huge but risky opportunity

http://www.deltacorp.in/pdf/financial/2020-21/Quarter-September-2020-21.pdf

Results

Discl - invested - tracking quantity

The segment-wise results show that although online division revenue was up around 10% for the q2YOY,its profit was only 1.27 cr compared to 12.56 cr. Any insights into how to understand this?

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http://businessgoa.in/rs-277-08-crore-waiver-for-casinos-industry-strongly-opposes-the-waiver/

Industry associations have already opposed this

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Could some one throw light on “Delta manufacturing”. I see many common promoters between “Delta Corp” & “Delta manufacturing”.

No where in the news I can find the name of the operator.

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Discl - Invested

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Its an International poker tournament brand , they have exclusive partnership with Adda 52 in India, usually the main event will be held in Deltin Royale casino in November every year ,around the same time they will have a lot of WPT online events along with the Main event, WPT India had its first event in 2017, this time there will not be any offline WPT event in Deltin Royale , same is the case with all big poker events around the world , even WSOP was fully online this time due to the Pandemic.

My views about their online poker business which forms the major part of revenue in their online business segment and they have some competitive advantage here (not talking about the Rummy and fantasy)
Adda 52 is the biggest name in online poker in India with the most number of players and its among the most trusted ones , but I have felt they were little ignorant about keeping ahead in the game, their gaming software was very buggy for a very long time, they have cleared it now with an update as WPT events are here, competitors are stronger now , global poker brand Pokerstars ( Global Leader ) with their Indian subsidiary is a strong player in Indian online poker , I think the shift is happening, I used to play in Adda52 for a long time, but got frustrated by the software issues ( the issues with their apps were not minor ) and shifted to Pokerstars, which has the best software in terms of user experience, so are my friends. Having the biggest number of players is an advantage for poker sites as the number of participants will increase the prize pool of a tournament and will make the tournament more valuable, but that is something which can change, as the industry is very competitive and this can be somewhat compared to the discount broking business in India now, the profits are going to be lowered by the competition. Players like to stick with the companies which give better offers and better games and switching cost is not much. All these bonuses and offers they give to their customers, to retain them comes from their own pockets ,otherwise this is a very profitable business especially when the operating leverage kicks in. Poker is not that a big sport in India and it is not going to be, reasons being its illegal in lot of states in India and second thing is the 31% taxation on winnings, some countries like UK, Australia, Canada etc… Poker winnings are tax free (there are some exceptions to it), Even if Poker is a Skill based game in the long run, its considered gambling in India and Policy changes on these skill based games makes it worse.

Disclosure- Have investments in the company from 2016, added back now at the same price again during the pandemic crash 2020

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A spike in price today? Anyone aware of any news? Or is it because of seasonal earning expectations?

Discl - invested as contra bet with 1 year timelines.

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discl - invested

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Delta Corp receives approval to set up resort in Goa

Delta Corp has received approval from the Goa Investment Promotion and Facilitation Board for setting up of an integrated resort consisting of hotels, convention centre, multiplex cinema, retail area, electronic casino, water park and other facilities at Pernem, Goa

Top Global Casino Companies:

Company Exchange Market cap P/E EV/EBITDA Debt/Equity
Las Vegas Sands Corp NYSE $43.35B N/A 10.28 3.22
Sands China Ltd. HKSE $35.69B 17.6 34.66 1.72
Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited HKSE $34.60B 19.68 44.58 0.3
Flutter Entertainment Plc LSE $28.48B 162.57 42.99 0.3
DraftKings Inc. NASDAQ $19.29B 308.27 N/A 0.89
Kindred Group plc OTC $16.84B 138.77 93.6 2.4
Eldorado Resorts, Inc. NASDAQ $15.38B N/A 9.59 4.05
MGM Resorts International NYSE $14.91B 11.27 9.08 2.75
Caesars Entertainment Inc NASDAQ $14.56B N/A 25 4.05
Wynn Resorts Ltd. NASDAQ $12.24B N/A 11.54 7.07

~75% of revenues come from the offline brick and motor sector, the closure of entertainment centers and casinos as part of the lockdowns imposed impacted revenues and profitability.
The global market for casinos is expected to decline by ~11% in the year 2020. While brick and motor casinos stagnate, online casinos are faring better although limited by lower discretionary spending. The increase in spending is coming largely from gaming addicts and from consumer clusters spending more on online retail and entertainment during the pandemic.
A return to complete normalcy will begin only after barriers to access gaming destinations are completely removed. The market is projected to reach US$159.3 billion by the year 2027, trailing a CAGR of 3.7%. Offline Casinos are projected to grow at a 3.4% CAGR to reach US$116.3 million by 2027. (Source: https://www.reportlinker.com/p05817578/Global-Casinos-Industry.html?utm_source=GNW)

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Hello everyone,
I tried modelling the company on some research. I think this short research will defiantly help you in your study.
And I’ll be more than happy to listen your views and comments on this report as well as on the stock.

Delta Corp by Shubham Malani.pdf (304.3 KB)

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Shubam, Thanks for the research… Can you please share the reference for market share of 60%?

Adda52.com’ owns around 60% of the market share in the online gaming industry

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I found it in the Annual Report of 2018 page number - 6 under Bussiness Portfolio.
You can also go check Tijori Finance
https://www.tijorifinance.com/company/delta-corp-limited#revenuemix

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thats share of online poker not total gaming I think…

The share is of Online Gambling and the major part of Online Gambling is contributed by Poker. So @dua you are right on this.

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Online gaming market is expected to grow much faster. Not sure if it will translate to higher bottomline for Delta Corp.

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Delta has huge potential only if they unlock tourism potential. However, the company faces several near term headwinds. 1) Banning locals brings down revenue potential by an unspecified amount and it needs to be monitored. 2) Lots of folks are hooked to online gaming but the competition will be intense since it competes with money bags from US/China who have almost zero cost of capital and they could keep burning 3) Competition from other offshore casinos will remain a big challenge in the near term. There is good capacity increase just before corona times and the sales was flagging even before the pandemic. 4) Current set up took almost a decade to generate good profit. What would it take a substantial investments (~2k cr) to generate good PAT at least 5 yrs from the completion date? 5) IMO, those expecting quick turnaround would be left disappointed. The income loss for SME segment is substantial and their owners are the biggest spenders here.

I think after some spurt offlate, the stock is headed sideways for a longish period.

Disc: Booked loss from my 2nd innings here and recovered from other stock. It remains in my watchlist.

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What disappoints me hugely is lack of interaction by the the management on the way forward - that too at a time when the business faces its biggest challenge.

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