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hi @Naresh thank you for consistently sharing events and your take on many delisting situations.
On TTK Healthcare, do you think the street is maybe expecting a 1300 or 1400 kind of a final price and hence there is absolutely no interest in the stock currently.?
The company saw its cash balanced improve by +Rs 573 crore YoY. (due to sale of its division)
For a floor price of Rs 1201, the promoters have already deposited Rs 432 crore in an escrow account.
Assume , they are willing to spend this slump sale money on delisting, (they will still be left with Rs 274 crore in account post this), the final price at the higher end could be Rs 1600 odd.
What are the base case or worst case scenario you are looking at?
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The fact is that there are many pieces of evidence which make me feel confident about successful delisting:
(1) Doing everything even before the deadline.
(2) They have TTK Prestige as a listed company- Anything adventurous here by promoters means doubt on the promoterās integrity in the eyes of the shareholders of the TTK prestige.
(3) They used to have AGM around August(the last one was also in the month of August), But they feel confident of delisting thatās why this year they have kept it just before the completion of the Delisting.
(4) People have doubt over scattered shareholding while I am confident that even if 50% of the small shareholderās bid, they will be able to reach 90%. This is because in Mutual funds most of the shares have been help by Axis, in HNIās Major holding is with Mr. Tulsian and In FIIās its Jupiter and in Body Corporates it is Abbakus. HNIās are mostly active. I have assigned the probability of the bid offering above.
(5) As you highlighted above, they have enough funds and they have timely deposited in the Escrow account. Had they hadnāt we have been seeing delays here.
In most cases the delisting happens at a time high, here it is around 1474 and this is some retailer stuck here. Even considering their desperation to exit they will not bid below cost and in fact will cost above that.
Promoters have successfully kept the prices lower here (I have already stated that the amount involved here is in billions and they will put all mechanisms there to keep prices in check. In my opinion, they have also done that. After all its billions.
On Price: I still feel that delisting will be successful and it will be somewhere between 1500-1550. It is just that market does not feel so. which makes this interesting. Based on the Searches I have found that it is not the price but the shareholding pattern which is not giving sufficient evidence but based on my analysis that should not be a fear.
Best case and worst case:
The worst Case is delisting and facing a debacle (hahaha). Jokes apart worst case if 1201
best case I have already stated that given how they have kept prices in check they probably would be comfortable with anything 15-20% from here.
Rest, we will have to wait for tomorrow. Also, donāt expect bids to be submitted by tomorrow itself. This time retail have a upper hand. without them 90% canāt be reached. Even if some fund houses bid lower, that will not be sufficient for exit price decisions. From tomorrow we will start tracking. Look for where the bids are clusstered. We will calculate total numbers here and will decide the bidding price.
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https://www.nseindia.com/market-data/tender-issue-information?symbol=TTKHLTCARE&type=Active
Link for NSE
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Can I buy shares today to participate in delisti?
Yes, you can. In fact a good opportunity. If you buy today, you can bid tomorrow. Till 24 anybody can buy considering the prices and bid details.
At this point, NSE and BSE is showing no bids. However, I submitted it at 1555. It will take time to update.
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As of now, no bid is being shown on both NSE and BSE. This is probably a problem at the end of Brokers. I have submitted it on Zerodha. They take time to forward the same. Has anybody else submitted it?
Looks like we will have information only at the end of the day.
I wouldnt tender at a price like that, may be 1700 - 1800
I am curious to find out your thoughts on Shreyas buy back. There is far more certainty this will go through going by the voting patterns on the delisting proposal. An advisory seems to hold 10% of the retail free float and they are in favour of delisting.
This may happen successfully. What I am not comfortable with is business. Why BUsiness- Because if delisting fails, prices tend to go far lower for poor businesses- Highly Cyclical and the top of the cycle has happened in the last 6 months. In contrast to that TTK though in a competitive industry has a good business plus the cushion is the Cash & Investments of 800+ lying in the Balance sheet.
Shreyad might go smoothly, it is just comfort that has made me stay away.
The shareholding pattern is only one of the factors, there are other factors which I give importance and the integrity of the promoters (Intentions) and the valuations are paramount even for delisting plays.
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I had a conversation with them and Zerodha actually submitted the bid on the closure date. So the bid will not be reflected till then.
have you already tendered? if yes, which broker?
HDFC Sec did not even have the reverse book building for TTK set up in the morning till around noon. Had raised a ticket with the backend team for updation. Will check this up tomorrow.
@Naresh Zerodha indicated they would aggregate and submit the bid on the closure dates only? then checking bid details on bse or nse site will not be fully reflective of all bids placed.
i have raised the same point while discussing it over the phone. They replied that submit feedback but at this point this is the only procedure we have.
Same issue with the brokers like choice India. I Think broking business is still lucrative if someone wants to be to provide the quality of services.
As of now the bid details on both the exchanges are Zero which should not be the case as i personally know many who have already submitted the bids. Seems to be some issues in between.
I have a question. Say someone has already bid and then sells their shares during the bid open window, how does this work.?
You can coz in essence they have not yet locked your shares.
What happens if the buyer then puts in another bid?