I don’t think I have a practical answer to this.
Where you got this info from?
While we all appreciate your enthusiasm towards special situation, however your recent post doesn’t align with community guideline. May I suggest you to put source or quote only publicly available information.
can @moderators looks into this ?
Updated analysis
(4) People have doubt over scattered shareholding while I am confident that even if 50% of the small shareholder’s bid, they will be able to reach 90%. This is because in Mutual funds most of the shares
Re the probability of reaching 90%, you can use the data from the voting for the delisting resolution. Companies need 2/3rd majority from public shareholders (non-promotors) for delisting to proceed. The voting completed on 22nd
May,at https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/fe2fcf2a-e292-471c-ae0d-fda41f2b2c55.pdf
The voting resolution narrowly passed
Vote #folios, #shares, % of public holding (only)
For. 84 835,093 70.38%
Aga. 97. 351,531 29.62%
Including promotor holding
Vote #folios, #shares, % of total holding
For 96 11,370,933 97%
Aga. 97 351,531 3%
84% of retailers voted for delisting. 58% of institutions did the same (but the 115385 shares who didnt provide documentation could change this number)
But only 20% of the public non institution share-holders bothered to vote, so overall votes account for around 85% of the total shareholding. Now for the delisting to succeed TTK needs 90% of the total shareholding, which includes the promotors’ stake. This very much depends on the remaining 17% of shareholder mainly public non-institutions to participate in reverse book building. I am now not too sure about the chances of this happening. The management needs nearly 60% of the public non-institution shareholders to tender their shares in the reverse book building
As per the price, I have no idea as to how much the business is worth. The Woodward’s gripe water brand must have some value in addition to cash.
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In my experience delisting failing is usually not bad for long term shareholders. and price falling is even better 
when market is giving you opportunity make it count.
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I have put in my bid at 1450. Hope everyone here also enters a reasonable number which the management is likely to accept (my sense is that they will reject for sure if the discovered price is above 1600). As shared earlier by @Deenar_Toraskar - hoping that retail investors are savvy enough to enter bids while the delisting window is open. One more important point - even people who have bought after 17th July can enter bids and offer through their broker window - as long as they have the stock in their Demat account as of today
This is not going to be successful unless Axis, Jupiter, Abbakus and Tulshan family submits the bids. None of them have submitted so far. Way poor response than anticipated.
I wouldn’t bet on this as if you look at the situation with Zerodha, maybe brokers aggregate bids before submitting them to the exchange. But the price action indicates the delisting may not be successful.
No a technical person but price is always a leading indicator.
What about the companies doing the bid rigging with the top shareholder? Here in these cases, the Top 100 shareholders held more than 20 Lakh shares. It could have been easily done if the promoters intended. Abbakus, Jupiter, axis and Tulshan family held more than 11 lakh shares. None of them tendered. Is it really possible without coordination with the promoter/manager to the issue? Take the case of Abbakus. They recently bought at rs 910. Within 3 months they were getting 1201/- (base case). Who would not like that? Are they assuming fair value higher than that or is it something else?(remember Promoters undertone itself is that the business will keep facing issues in the near term)
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All action will unfold on the last day. Hopefully, the de-listing will eventually go through.
This is the cumulative quantity composition of the Top 100 shareholders. As it’s not publicly available information, I am not sharing the pdf file here. However, The secret Tip is that a shareholder can access the members’ register by paying fees under section 94 of the Companies Act.
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Highly unlikely that 18 lakhs shares will be tendered tomorrow. Probabilities of success have drastically gone down. No better option than waiting. As I mentioned earlier success depends on tendering by the top 100 shareholders, not the retail. (only 4 of them have done so far.)
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If there is concentration chances of success are usually higher. There are a few things I don’t understand
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why are these large shareholders classified as non institutional? Other than the Tulsian family the rest of them seem institutions. Unless the shareholding has materially changed from when the vote was done.
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if the large shareholders want to delist, they would have participated in the vote and not left the decision to a narrow margin.
They have been classified as institutional:
- Jupiter as FII
- Axis as DII
Further Abbacus as Body corporate.
there’s is no change in shareholding since March 2023.
Tulshan family holds a large chunk.
Even I’m not able to connect the dots. If they participated in Postal ballot, why not here…
These 2.6 lakhs voter against resolution is of Jupiter. Classified as FII
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