ValuePickr Forum

Deep Dive 2.0: Bharat Rasayan

Absolutely with Ashwini and Anant on this. That’s the whole purpose of the exercise. The forensic auditor does not need to have a deep understanding of the business in question. The job is ONLY to point out inconsistencies that crop up from a scrutiny of the Accounts statements, and Notes to Accounts. There can be differences in the interpretation of Inconsistencies. There can be deficiencies even when enough drill-down or drill-through is not done on the Account Statements. That’s all a part of our getting better at the job, and getting better at accommodating new roles into Team VP.

It is the also the job of the Forensics person to therefore stick to FACTS - and perhaps only to point to the inconsistencies - rather than share an opinion this way or that way. If any opinion shared (that is completely SHORT on facts and NOT substantiated by any datapoint) obviously there will be strident objections raised - that’s NOT the job of the Forensics audit, certainly NOT to play the Devils Advocate role - as highlighted in Alembic post. The devil’s advocate role is better played by Seniors who can address both sides of the story equally well - because they are (willing to) engaging deeper into the story - in order to better understand the facts, intentions, and implications.

I don’t think there are insults traded anywhere (especially on this [Alembic post] being referred to repeatedly (Alembic Pharma (Oral Solids ==> Injectables, Onco, Derma, Opthalmic))) by me. I normally refrain from intervening in the red flags discussions - thats a deep subject matter expertise area - and leave it to professionals - CAs/Accountants to delve in. and sort out differing interpretations - not my expertise area, and neither my cup of tea. But I do and will intervene in future too - only to settle important basic guidelines - as in Alembic discussion, and also in Bharat Rasayan thread after this recent spirited animated discussion between passionate folks (I was unaware of for a few hours)

Let’s get better at this - as we understand each other and our intents better - while showing the maturity publicly needed. I am sure after 5-6 such exercises, all of us will settle down to a much smoother working relationship. Rest assured there is RESPECT - there are no insults - certainly not from my side. And I don’t think from Ashwini’s side either.

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Source: CARE report on Agrochemicals
@ankitgupta
Two questions:

  1. Clearly India is doing extraordinarily well in exports of herbicides and fungicides while pesticide exports are declining. What explains this trend? Is it secular or temporary

  2. Given that BR is largely into pesticides, could their expansion into fungicides and herbicides bring the next level of growth? Clearly, Astec is benefiting from being a fungicide technicals player inspite of being a less efficient operator than BR

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Finally what’s the take of VP on red flags raised? An average investor who is neither an expert in reading balance sheets not has a deep understanding of business gets confused and doesn’t know the outcome or which way to go?IMHO, we need to draw some conclusions on such findings or even to dig further .

Disc: no holding

1-Globally Herbicides accounts for highest proportion around 43% of Total Pesticides sales. In India Insecticides account for highest sales of around 53%. This may be one of the reasons.
2-Efficiency is very subjective term. A pesticides producer manufacturing from basic stage will generally enjoy higher margin that buying Intermediate and doing final stage of reaction.

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Red Flags are always something where you adjust valuations. In this case maybe you can decide, that you dont want to buy the co at say 25 PE, and are ok with 15PE, in light of risks .

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Regret the delay in getting back on BR deep Dive Skeptical Take.
a) was hard to find someone - who is conversant with BR, but not SOLD out :slight_smile:
b) even after locating such a person, its hard to get mutually convenient time.

But the good news now. BR Skeptical angle take is being captured as we write, and hopefully will be out for transcribing tonight/tomorrow.

Who wants to put up their hand for this?
I have a couple of guys/gals for this in mind too - judging from earlier interest/participation shown - lets see if they put up their hands
Anyone else who can demonstrate well - why he/she could be/should be fast-tracked?

Cheers

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Hi! I would like to volunteer for the skeptical take of the Bharat Rasayan deep dive exercise.

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Hello sir,
I would like to volunteer for the Bharat Rasayan Deep Drive Skeptical take. Would really like to learn and contribute with similar mindset people. Please count me in.

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Count me in Donald for this exercise.

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nice to learn about your endeavor! do share your ‘skeptical take’ on the main BR forum as well!

tx

Happy to share BR Take4: from Anant Jain
[Earlier takes from Rohit Balakrishnan (Self-Transcribed), Ankit Gupta (transcribed but synthesised with own views), Dhwanil Desai (yet to be transcribed)]


The idea behind different takes being - even with almost the same data-points available/shared between these folks)

  1. We can see for the same tick-box - lets say “ability to manage downturns” - the articulation on that aspect alone will be different from different folks. There is much to learn from these different articulations - on the same aspect, and as a whole picture that emerges.
    We may agree or disagree with the verdicts. Some will resonate more with us individually than the other take or rating on an aspect of business attractiveness or Management Quality e.g. Each guy has important nuances to offer - all of us can improve on the “Insights” front.

  2. When synthesised properly (by senior investors) - these 4 takes - can make for a very holistic view on the business. Still hunting for a more skeptical take on BR. Caveat - skeptical is not just the impression from red flags; A skeptical view can be on the quality of earnings, skeptical take can be on the business transition that others are expecting NOT happening -because of xyz reasons; we are looking for someone who has dug his hands deep on BR, understands the strengths, bit does not rate HIGH …for his own insights…if any

  3. Think once these are all transcribed well (ONLY the Analyst’s take - NOT synthesised with yours), we can head straight to writing the VP Bharat Rasayan Stock Story - by these very transcribers - so there is complete ownership - on keeping it updated. Oversight/polishing will be provided by the Analysts - they can guide one of the transcribers to update such and such development - say an EC clearance, and stuff like that.

Now, I have been engaging deeper with some of the volunteers. Purely from an engaged willing, hardworking perspective, this is what we are doing for BR transcribes

  1. Dhwanil Take and Anant Jain take
    @Parul teaming up with @ashkrithik
  2. Ankit Gupta Take
    @valuequest
    Guys/Gals mentioned, get in touch with me :slight_smile:

As we do this well, we will speed up this activity soon. Keep watching this space, closely :slight_smile:

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Hi

Thanks Donald for the opportunity.
Appended here is the summary on Ankit’s take on Bharat Rasayan.

Cheers
Bharat Rasyan deep dive_Ankit Gupta version_v2.docx (124.5 KB)

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@valuequest
Thank you very much for the sustained effort in helping capture an authentic version of Ankit’s take. Someone as meticulous as you is a delight for us deep divers.
We look forward to your version too - immediately - that raises a few other points/concerns - as also might offer slightly different perspectives on some of the conclusions?

@ankitgupta
Please have a quick look. This should have done justice to - just about what you and me discussed and captured back.

Now we can quickly ramp up on Dhwanil Desai and Anant Jain versions.
Still hopeful of doing another better skeptical take on BR

And then we can go on to the first official BR Stock Story - created and maintained by nextgen VP Contributors.

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My own summary of BRL is as below:

Key positives

  1. Business quality is good – No doubt - Nissan JV – speaks about the technical capabilities and strength of the business. Not many companies in India have achieved this.
  2. No equity dilution last so many years despite growth
  3. Low debt levels
  4. Promoters putting supporting by funds as loans

Negatives that cannot be ignored
• Stock broking forms holding 12% involved in money laundering etc – Ravi kumar newatia sharing same address as some promoter shareholding firms. – Key risk
• Auditor not good (not an issue on its own but combined with other issues)
• Pretty bad Glass door reviews especially historically

Other negatives that can be ignored
• Why have 3 different companies (listed and promoter held), why not all business in one?- Historical structure issue? But important to note that promoter entities have 10-15% EBITDA margin which is reasonable. Related party dealings are there– but no significant pending amounts from them.
• Low dividend, though tax is being paid, can be justified for growth/capex
• Cash flow – If we assume payable days similar to industry, CFO looks fine. Also Astec Life Sciences (which is in similar line of business) has similar receivable days as BRL. There should be no further deterioration of receivable days from here (awaiting March numbers). Inventory at March end can be impacted due to lockdown.
• Imports at 68% of RM cost very high – watch reduction over time

Check further
• China 180 days credit to customers hypothesis leading to higher receivables - have we checked this in any China agrochem cos?

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Hello,

Please find attached stock story of Bharat Rasayan as per Anant Jain’s take.
Thank you @Donald for this wonderful opportunity. Learning has been tremendous from this deep drive.

BR deep drive Anant Jain version.pdf (395.1 KB)

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Thank you Parul for your persistence.
Would you like to Write up Dhwanil’s version too?

I suggest we skip the parts that are more tick/cross but take care to capture the more nuanced
a) elevator pitch b) Key monitorable c) Business Attractiveness d) Scalability e) Management DNA f) Risk Mitigation

You will gain from capturing Dhwanil’s perspective - you will notice that he would articulate the same things a bit differently from the others - and these are usually the points to note by young learners - data points remaining almost same - the interpretation/insights of the same could be quite different and much more nuanced. Essential to Note!!

Once that is done - we are actually ready for the first stock story that can be maintained by new members (who put up their hands) themselves - @valuequest @Parul under guidance from Rohit Balakrishnan, Ankit, Dhwanil and other seniors. Dheeraj Dave and Ashwini Damani could supply the guidance for Corporate Governance and Red Flags sections.

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Ready to learn more and do Dhwanil’s take.

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Thanks Parul. You have captured it succinctly. This quarter’s nos have taken away a lot of my concerns with regards to OCF. OCF was a determining exit factor/key risk and with the improvement shown in this quarter my view of company has turned far more +ve.

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Bharat Rasayan Cash Flows have been super strong and hence removes one major overhang

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Promoter-held Bharat Insecticide Ltd will now be majority-held by Mitsui. Management is talking to more Japanese companies for tie-ups.

Some more clarity has emerged from the company at the AGM. My notes here:

Here are my notes from the ​Bharat Rasayan AGM:

Topline and Bottomline growth is likely to be poor this year due to the Covid pandemic. Management refused to give guidance for this year.

Looking ahead, management is banking heavily on tie-ups with Japanese players to grow its business. Questions were asked about majority stake in Bharat Insecticides being sold to Japanese company Mitsui.

According to Gupta, Bharat Rasayan will be supplying high margin intermediate products for BIL which is moving towards producing patented products from generic products. Bharat Rasayan will be supplying intermediate products to Japanese and European companies.

Apart from Mitsui, the Guptas have tied up with Nissan to set up Bharat Rasayan’s new plant. Construction of the plant will begin soon and be completed by March 2022. A number of high-value patented molecules will be manufactured under this JV.

Management is talking to other global companies to set up similar joint ventures. Talks are on with the Top 10 global companies. The company is looking for land in different parts of the country to set up these projects.

Advantage of such tie-ups is that Bharat Rasayan will get preference in the supply of intermediates for such ventures. Margins are thus likely to be higher.

Work on expanding the existing facility at Dahej ​has started and new products will be introduced next year.

​Brazil is all set to emerge as a major market for Indian agro-chemical companies and Bharat Rasayan too is preparing to make use of this opportunity. Several product registrations are done and the company is working towards supplying a big product to that country.​

Others may please update if I have missed anything.

​disclosure: holding

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