Thanks for sharing these names and insights Jimmy, can you kindly share the investor presentation of Kore Digital, I can’t seem to find it on their website or screener. Maybe I am missing something…
regards.
Kore Digital has apparently received an order for laying out Optical Fibre that is expected to generate them INR 130 cr revenue per year. That is like 6x of their annual revenue for FY23.
Link: https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/KDL_18032024185138_nsesamruddhiannouncement.pdf
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How much time will they take to execute the project?
What I understood is that it’s going to take about 2 years to complete construction and a maintenance contract for 10 to 15 years. The orderbook they mentioned is about 1500 cr over 10 years and 130 cr annually.
In recent concall (Q3f24), they said it would be 500 Cr +
Can you please share the Concall link or transcript? TIA
Came across this regarding Kore Digital.
https://twitter.com/Investindia6/status/1770877726909448414?t=a0TdjOjoLbhSfGzTtS2Lcw&s=19
Promoter group also purchased approx 1.5 lakh shares in March itself
In my opinion, Genus power which cater in smart meter segment should do well in next two years. They have 20,000 Cr+ order book and guided minimum of 2500 Cr+ revenue in FY25. We should start seeing good jump in the revenue from this Q4,fy24.
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Som Distilleries should also do 20-30% + growth in bottomline considering IPL season, elections and the undergoing capex in Karnataka plants.
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Their net profit margin camenaround 8% as per my calculations (interest cost would double next year). So stock trades at 30 pe on next FY earnings. Barring any surprises. Valuations wise you will need to decide whether its investible or not.
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Genus power name popped in electrol bond as well. Not sure if its going to impact anything.
Why should it impact anything? Electoral bond was meant for the purpose of political party funding. If there is not anything amiss, like disproportionate or huge amount, or any quid pro quo, it should not have any bearing on the company in my opinion.
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It can take more than two years to see visible growth for Jyoti Resin. If you see that sales have not increased since last 5/6 Q. This is because they have to do new penetration in newer geography which usually takes times,
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Sorry to be a buzzkill but I will take a slightly less sanguine view on this topic.
Not many investors appreciate as to how deeply attached and often addicted management/ promoters can be to stock prices. There is so much to gain (apart from being insanely rich) from rising stock prices that when management starts giving promising guidance during a bull market one should start becoming extra alert. I’d recommend doing some checks on the companies, for example.
1- Management guidance (if at all) during bear market. How does their commentary sound? Do the tone and language vary based on the market cycles?
2- Is company guidance consistent with its historical performance or we see extreme divergence? Promoter will always cite great order book (the most misleading but most commonly accepted leading indicator of a company’s future prospects) to back up their claims, but one needs to go deeper into their execution skills.
3- Track record of company in meeting their guidance. If no precedent then go back to fundamentals. Often times well-meaning but inexperienced management can fall prey to urge of pleasing their investors only to learn the hard way.
4- Whether the guidance is coming after a few exceptional quarters in a bull market. This is a perfect opportunity for many promoters to talk up their companies’ prospects by painting even a rosier picture.
5- Guidance of peer group in the same market cap. Is it comparable?
6- The overall tone of management on concalls. Are they glossing over the facts or reiterating how well their company has turned the corner or how good the future looks like? This to me is the biggest red flag. Compare this to the commentary of well run companies’ promoters. They are always cautious, firm with investors and hesitant to give guidance because they know they are in the business for a very long time.
Eventually, there is no good way to verify management’s claims. But if you prefer companies that underpromise and overdeliver then take such guidances with a pinch of salt :).
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Thank you @Hemant_Kumar2 . Very useful post to bring some balance. Would you kind enough to share some companies discussed above which will pass through the criteria you mentioned. That would be super helpful.
Deep Industries promises 25% growth. Reference Deep Industries (DIL) - #281 by vikashkota
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Hi James,
As a rule I never invest in a company that suddenly seems to have hit a purple pitch and keep talking up their prospects on concalls, assuring investors that coming days will be better. Just like we don’t buy things based on their packaging, same applies to the stock investment. Rosy guidance are like clever packaging designed to please investors, telling them what they want to hear.
I made a mistake of being fooled by such guidances in the past and will never repeat it, even if it means forgoing a few extra percent of my returns.
I have nothing against guidances and if they come from credible promoters/management they can provide a lot of useful insights into a company’s business environment, competitive landscape and company’s own position. What I am against is propaganda masked as guidance.
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