I have in my portfolio stocks where the companies have in most cases shown excellent performance. Yet the share prices are not so rosy. The portfolio is:
Ather
Jana Small Bank
Shine Fashion
Shilchar
Suzlon
TD Power
Anand Rathi
Rategain
NSDL
Sai Life Sciences
Waaree Renewable
Waaree Energies
HDB Fin
Studds
Groww
Vikram Solar
NSDL
The last five are under lock-in as I had bought them when they were unlisted.
Of course, when the market conditions are bad, there is nothing but to wait out. But is there anything inherently wrong with my portfolio?
I have heard of almost all of these names. I don’t follow the updates, though. As you might have known before coming to VP, or after, that sometimes prices don’t move even though businesses are moving forward posting good numbers and management giving encouraging commentary.
As each stock is an independent entity, and for you to participate in them, there must have been fundamental reasons, some analysis. And, some concerns or red flags may have existed, which are responsible for the price consolidation or fall, after you have invested. I cannot say what they are.
Also, if each such purchase has a unique reason, then too, price inaction is understandable. A bet at high valuation, a contra bet, a value bet, a risky bet etc. Are there such reasons?
Is sector rotation happening with your stocks? Have you entered when price was strong but the strength is waning? Quarterly numbers are good, but steam is going away? Who bought at early prices have found other opportunities and are decreasing their positions, selling?
And, I don’t have to tell you that patience can be a virtue, and an affordability, and I presume you can afford this, so, analyze and sit tight?
Just my two cents. I have no stocks from your PF with me.
Sir, it seems the combination of both overvaluation and performance deterioration. Used to hold rategain, exited sometime back (for my pov you may visit the thread or RG in VP), it has both characters - overvaluation and poor performance (single digit revenue growth).
Almost all are of recent IPOs. For IPO investing, study all but take small allocation or wait for 2-3 quarterly results before participation.
Wondering at what price you purchased for studds and groww?
I have bought Studds at ₹489. So, it is marginally in profit. Groww is in loss, as I bought it at ₹127.
In fact, in most of my unlisted equity I am losing.
As for Rategain and others, these days I am mainly relying on PEG to see if the stock is overvalued. The PEG of Rategain is .18. So, I thought it had lot of scope. Same is the case in many other stocks.
Thanks for your views.
Context matters. @meekinvestor has more experience than me. Check his profile, you will know.
I was trying to give a bit of perspective, a perspective of my own. Not that he does not know what I said, but sometimes, even experienced investors feel a bit dejected.
I used appropriate punctuation marks at certain expressions. I almost never say anything explicitly, I am careful not to, because I know my limitations and I know in markets, nothing is certain.
Investing is a journey, one I have been going through for several years, now. And not all of it pertains to mathematics. Some of it is qualitative, visceral.
And, finally, I started inclining more towards trading, and this being VP, although there are topics on trading, discussion on trading is less, rightfully so.
Don’t be so demotivated, its a phase of heavy capitulation somewhat i can correlate with 2018-19 period, my two bets have outperformed hugely , force motors and AB Capital, Force tripled in AB cap doubled in three month, lost 30% in ABFRL demerger and Wockhardt down 30% in two months, stocks which were bought thinking cheap valuations have become more cheaper:joy:, overall down 8% from previous year. Power stocks, Capital Goods stocks, solar and renewable stocks are either down or flat despite posting good numbers. Looks capital goods, solar cycle is peaking out. In consumption, only buying happening in alcohol or selected stocks in FMCG. Story is rightnow sold to retailers in the name of platform companies, eternal will clearly see downward slop from here as Flipkart, Amazon and reliance are coming big way in Q commerce and expending dark stores. Q commerce loyalty is a shit, i have shifted from zepto to blinkit to Flipkart and now using amazon as fee charged is zero:joy:, carnage will be deadly in platform companies as competition is intense and no one will make a profit for sure. I have stopped looking at new stocks and shifted to Intraday or short swing trades to make some peanuts.
Amazon and Flipkart are really struggling in Q com in my opinion. Sharing my own experience.
Where I live they both started Q com but shut down within a month. Then Amazon restarted but again shut down. Seems to be gone for good. This is pretty dense locality populated with High income apartment dwellers. Zepto, Instamart, BB and Blinkit are running for years without any problem.
Amazon struggle in QCOM is same as it was in UPI payments.
Sir some of these companies are multi-multi-baggers with super strong fundamentals. Shilchar, Suzlon, Anand Rathi etc. have all given stupendous performance in the past few years. They’re now moving horizontally as the broader market corrects.
Here is what I would do:
Open screener and add them to a new list if not done already. Export to Excel with performance indicators like 1-year returns.
See how a few benchmarks have performed over 1 year. At the minimum NSE 50 and 500 + midcap and small cap benchmarks.
List each company’s market leader or closest competitor.
Then see where my portfolio stands vs benchmarks in the past one year and what companies are outliers in this. For example, Aether.
Then I’d ask myself a few questions:
Was my thesis correct in the first place (I just go back and read up whatever documentation I have on the company)?
Is my thesis intact?
Do the results match my thesis?
Sir, Your companies are good, but many of them are small or mid-cap, and are out of flavor right now. Some of your stocks are also illiquid, so the price moves slowly.
You also have too many stocks from the same area — power and renewables — which increases risk.
I feel Nothing is wrong with the businesses, but you need patience and a bit more diversification.
You may review it with experienced investor or expert.
Thanks a lot.
Done a bit of rejig. It could turn out to be a knee-jerk reaction or invigourating.
Rategain is out.
Shilchar is out. In
Zaggle
Sagility
Windsor Machines
Syrma
Denta Infra
My inclination has always been towards Defence (pvt sector companies) and renewable. Now there is no defence company. Percentagewise, renewable is very high.
