Hello Jiten, there is good correction in small and midcap ement stocks. What are your views on it? Largecap cenent is holding well and does not look like cyclical. What are your views on cement cycle?
Thank you
Disc: Not invested in any cement stock currently.
Update: Caustic prices now down to 45k-50k per ton in domestic markets.
http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-368.html
One can check the chart for CS prices in China also.
If one has a 2-3 year view, one can be invested in cement.
Hello sir,
Have you found any new cyclical stocks which we can be bullish on?
SIlver may outperform BITCOIN as per Michael Oliver (MSA)
Refer attachedSilver VS Bitcoin MSA.pdf (407.5 KB)
Chinese economy slowing down might cut the commodity bull run short. Infact its already happening with their Real Estate players struggling with the weight of their heavy leverage. Any takes on the potential impact?
Is anyone tracking the tea industry , due to sudden policy change of not using imported chemical fertilizers in Srilanka the production of tea is dipping there. Srilanka is one of the major tea exporters and already due to lower production there Indian companies have seen an uptick in export volumes . Although Srilanka has reversed the order and allowed import of chem fertilizers there is no subsidy for farmers there and thereby increasing cost of production for them . Indian tea estate companies might get benefited in this scenario. Anybody following this industry please share your views .
Disc: Not invested in any tea companies
Internation steel prices peaked in October 2021 and bottomed early December 2021. Looks like reversal is happing as some Chines steel factories are closing for winter Olympics till middle March as mentioned in this video The government issued notices: stop production. More than half of China’s heavy industry is affected - YouTube, not sure how much is true, diligence is required instead of relying 100 percent
I am a little confused - will this be good or bad for Indian Steel companies?
Steel and other metals will do well in the next few years as focus on green energy increases.
Tata Steel supplies steel for construction of Dogger Bank wind farm
A few months ago, Offshore Engineer published a special report on who developed the largest offshore wind farm in the world, the 3.6GW Dogger Bank wind farm in the UK, turbines, cables, installation services, ship owners, SOV , jack-up rigs and other project leaders and suppliers have done the specific work.
Tata Steel is one of the project suppliers. The company says its steel made in the UK played a huge role in building the world’s largest offshore wind farm.
The steel frames constructed by Tata Steel are very safe transition pieces that connect the tower above the sea to the foundation below the water. During the first two phases of construction, GE Renewable’s turbines will be built on top of it. Each turbine is rated at 13 megawatts and can power a home for two days with one rotation.
In November 2020, manufacturing company Sif and Belgian company Smulders signed a contract to jointly provide monopiles for the world’s largest offshore wind farm, Dogger Bank A and B, two phases totaling 2.4GW. A year later, a consortium between Sif and Smulders has signed a contract to produce all 87 monobloc and transition components for Dogger Bank C, which will be the third phase of the world’s largest offshore wind farm, also last phase.
Steel is produced at Tata Steel’s Port Talbot plant and sent to its Corby and Hartlepool sites, where it is processed into hollow sections by one of the companies responsible for the construction of the first two phases of the wind farm.
Sandip Biswas, chairman of the board of Tata Steel UK, said: "We are proud that this project can help improve employment in the UK and support the development of manufacturing. Tata Steel’s products can withstand the harsh conditions of the North Sea. Hundreds of tons of high-quality steel in the future will play a huge role in the first two stages of the Dogger Bank wind farm, located 130km off the northeast coast of England. For the UK to achieve its net zero target, it will need a lot of steel to build everything from renewable energy and low-carbon transport to hydrogen production and distribution. As a steel company, we also have our own decarbonization goals. In the future, our decarbonization process will depend on low-cost renewable energy that can provide a safe and stable supply. Whether creating hydrogen for future steelmaking or powering new low carbon furnaces. If we can provide more help, these projects can be better developed.
Dogger Bank Wind Farm Director Steve Wilson said: "It’s also proof that we can use UK skills and expertise to build the world’s largest offshore wind farm. Our connector is one of the largest to be installed on an offshore wind farm, and Tata Steel’s steel will be used to build part of the steel frame.
The Dogger Bank wind farm already supports more than 3,000 jobs in the UK supply chain and offers businesses the opportunity to be part of such a groundbreaking project. These companies will be more competitive in the future when the use of renewable energy is widespread around the world.
The Dogger Bank wind farm is being jointly developed by three companies, SSE, Equinor and ENI, and is divided into three stages, Dogger Bank A, B and C, each with a total of 1.2GW and is targeted for completion in 2026.
Ruchira papers’ promoters are raising equity, 64.07% to 67.88%. Good time to enter paper?
price to BV also <1 for ruchira and kuantum
Yes china is shutting and also changing stance over the use of fosil furnace that are more pollution oriented and to electric one that are expensive but eco-friendly.
But 1-2 month stop might not affect much as they have also cut there demand also even more and as construction also causes pollution they need blue sky so they have stopped the import also so china is now zero majorly.
So china is not a net importer or an exporter so how it may affect might not be big and also seeing omricon construction stop so this period of no production might not be that useful also.
Personally I am not seeing much gain as most Indian stell company are already trading at nice valuation so they can sustain these margins and profits for longer and now gain can be due to re-rating and not much sales or margin increment.
I agree with most of your points, but I believe that there are certain undervalued steel stocks like GPIL and Tata Steel LLP
Analysts are saying peak margins for steel cos are here and should drop sharply in FY23.
Interesting article with insights on China EAF plans. Long term looks good for Needle Coke and Graphite Electrode players.
China plans to boost EAF steel to account for 15%-20% of the total crude steel output by 2025.
Eventually, 50% of China’s total crude steel capacity could come from EAFs in order to minimize carbon emissions, some sources said.
China has vowed to become carbon neutral by 2060 and plans to hit peak carbon emissions by 2030.
China’s steel industry, accounting for around 15% of national carbon emissions, is expected to move faster towards carbon neutrality.
According to the China Association of Metal scrap Utilization, China’s crude steel made by EAFs over January-November 2021 accounted for 10.86% of the country’s total crude steel output, or 102.77 million mt, up from the ratio of 10.12% seen in the same period of 2020.
GMDC
Got this piece of information
Interesting sales note on GMDC…big play on EV
GMDC will be the only company in India where rare earth elements (lithium and special magnets used in EV etc) story is in the making. So the pitch is getting ready now at through away valuation. Go through the transformation journey of GMDC on their website. #The transformation is underway in renewable energy (solar) and rare earth elements space. Soon worlds one of the best consultant will be on board to speed up this transformation. #Price hikes close to 100% in lignite in last 7-8 months and volume uptick will take care of earnings growth in next 2-3 quarters. #Entry in manganese ore and bauxite mining will take care of growth in FY23 and FY24. #By then rare earth elements commercial start will take over earnings growth trajectory. #GMDC is also sitting on huge land bank and investment in RE(solar) space will futher help in profitability improvement thus changing the ROE/ROCE profile over medium to long term. #New management team is already at helm(Rajiv Gupta and Roopwant singh) to drive the change and transformation of the company. GMDC will be appointing a project management consultant next month to guide it for the next phase of growth. This will involve commercializing six new lignite mines, commencing manganese ore and expanding bauxite mining and preparing a plan for mining rare earth metals. Pre bid meetings are scheduled next week as per the tender document available on its website. Rare Earth Minerals (approx 1.5kg required / vehicle) could change the whole profile of company. Lot of developments on cards over next few quarters. Rare Earth magnets are mostly made of neodymium (REE) which are the most effective way to power electric vehicles. China controls 90% of the supply. Current m cap is 2200 Cr Co had 1200 Cr cash in liquid … lignite realisation is up by 60% from April this Qtr co will do pat of 100 Cr from lignite and 140 Cr in next qtr. Next year run rate from lignite is 500 Cr. Losses in power plant will be down as thier PLF has moved up from 20% to 55%. No trading is advised, view of 3-4 years if one wants to ride the real EV wave.
Hi sir, what would be your view on the paper sector? Writing and printing paper sector has faced the toughest phase. Now with schools reopening, there seems to be some greenshoots. Would be great to hear your views on this sector.@jitenp
Hi @ganesh_bastwadkar can you please share your source here?
I checked the last two concalls and I didn’t find any mention of lithium/neodymium/rare earth minerals. Neither in AR’21.
The whole paragraph you have posted here is being copy pasted on various social media platforms. (just google search one line of this paragraph)
Hi Nimit, yup you are right no official announcement so far on above. But i think its bauxaite which is the real story behind GMDC.
Let this be an open forum, so please share your privileged information, then we can see merits in your article, lest we end up like moneycontrol 
