@Rakesh_Arora sir, again a very good write up. This time around there were too many moving parts, which is fine given the problems in China. Sir, one thing which has been headache of this industry is coking coal prices. I heard in recent interview that JSPL will be having it’s own coking coal and steel prices are going to move up sharply once again. So, doesn’t this give jspl an advantage ? And will the steel prices correct if coking coal prices correct ?
Intention is not asking for a recommendation, just asked only out of curiosity, have no position there.
Indeed JSPL has 50-60% of it’s requirement which is hedged, so is slightly better placed. Though it’s iron ore cost goes up as it has finished it’s zero cost inventory and has to buy from market. Steel prices won’t correct immediately even if coking coal prices were to come off.
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If these price hold up for steel for just next 2 quarters,steel companies are going to be making a windfall. It will wipe out all the debts and almost all steel plant can easily start next cycle of expansion. These all should add to the forward looking valuation of these steel companies.
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But, where is the iron ore? If steel companies go on a big capex and build mega steel plants in coming years, there will be shortage of Iron ore in India, and we will have to import iron ore at high prices (like we are importing coal though coal india has massive reserves of Coal).
This will reduce margins of steel companies, except for those cos which have their own captive iron license for next 20+ years- and there is only one such company in private sector. and that’s GPIL.
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However, the run may be coming to an end. At least a dozen Chinese Chemical businesses, ranging from fertilizer makers to polyester fiber firms, have declared production curtailments owing to a scarcity of energy in recent days.Furthermore, on September 23, the US Company Celanese announced force majeure for numerous polymers after being compelled to close acetic anhydride and vinyl acetate plants in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, to comply with government directives.
So who are the acetic acid ab initio makers in India who do not source anything from China to make it? The above bit is from Jubilant Ingrevia thread.
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GNFC is into making acetic acid and TDI which are export substitute.GNFC is largest producer of Acetic Acid and its derivative in India.
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Yes, 55k now. peak prices one could say. one dealer is expecting 60 also. but personally not sure.
Disc: booked out 
never hurts to book profits. will enjoy from sidelines
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Thanks I wanted to reconfirm the caustic rate. As u said 55even may be top, but I am interested that what will be average utilisation for year. I track tgvs and last year it’s avg sales was around 23/25 . A single rupee rise in caustic adds approx 18 cr to top line so even if average price remains 40 then it can add whopping amount of 300 crs to top line and substantial amount to bottom line . Assuming that production is at same level.
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Very interesting discussion on manufacturing, engineering & capex cycle. Super bullish commentary from an industry veteran
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will update if there is a change in prices.
Laxmi chemicals had a big profit last quarter because they make a product that is not a substitute but somewhat similar. I forgot the name as I’m not in front of my pc. This quarter is likely to be good as well as per their conference call
The chart is showing flag pattern and I think in current market strength has shown a breakout
Disc: invested from current levels
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Looks like interesting time ahead for capital goods majors
Previous post update
Going as per previous post
Crude price increasing
DJI and Nasdaq giving index breakout
DJI
Nasdaq
OIL
India: readymade garments, cotton yarn and fabric exports in September
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, export sales of cotton yarn, fabric and made-ups in September had a value of US$1.31 billion compared with US$932 million in the same month last year, a rise of 41 percent. The April/September tally is US$7.29 billion, marking an increase of over 80 percent from 2020.
Shipments of ready-made garments (all textiles) during the month had a value of US$1.3 billion, nine percent higher than September 2020. The running total for the fiscal year was US$7.33 billion, up 53 percent on last year.
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IOCL will be beneficiary of rising oil prices
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which textile stocks are into exports?
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