@jitenp bhai, are you tracking copper and any views it? Will be grateful for your insights in the current copper cycle
As expected, we are in a very good cycle in commodities. Copper, Al, steel, etc. all doing well. I had expected this due to the huge stimulus given out last year. I would still hang on, with regular bouts of profit taking, due to adherence to portfolio allocations.
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U.S. manufacturers stare at steel shortages, soaring prices - The Hindu.
The benchmark price for hot-rolled steel hit $1,176 a tonne this month, its highest level in at least 13 years.
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Insightful article by finshots regarding the bull run in copper prices:
Will there be a Copper Squeeze in the future? https://bit.ly/2NReWDf
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Last time I read a very similar article was in 2017, when commodities were on a great run. The supply side story was the same then also, the dwindling reserves. And from the demand side it was EV , clean energy and some other things.
I may be being over cautious as I got trapped in the last copper cycle. Exited much earlier from hind copper before the cycle really moved this time. So biased
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anyone tracking GACL ?
The prices are now at an all time low and the stock is available at cheap valuations. They are the leaders in caustic soda.
Reasons for buying
CMP 314
Book value - 660 (available at half book value)
Mcap - 2250 crore.
3 years free cash flow - 730 crores.
recent results though not extra ordinary were decent. Cash EPS was also decent.
Nearly debt free company.
The prices of caustic are mainly dependent on demand from two industries. one is textiles and second is paper.
Textile companies - doing fairly well. Demand to pick up.
Paper industry struggling. Reasons - schools and offices closed. bound to open sooner.
With schools reopening soon (northern India class 6-12 open) and the offices also opening soon, the demand for paper bound to recover.
At present prices are at 22-24k per ton. prices at multi year low. prices were at around 38-40k at peak.
Cyclical commodity play.
we can see decent upside from here with reasonable margin of safety. anyone tracking the sector pls let me know. thank you.
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Anybody tracking Graphite Electrodes here? It seems destocking that was going on for last 2 years is largely over and with steel demand booming, there must be very strong tailwinds for Graphite Electrode.
On top, CN has changed their regulations to allow import of steel scrap which indicates both political resolve to increase EAF steel production at expense of BOF as well as indicating that domestic consumption of scrap is increasing.
Discl. Invested in both GI and HEG
Good evening jiten bhai.are you tracking cement and fertilizer sectors.how is demand and supply outlook
I did a detailed analysis of cement demand and supply. According to what I calculate we are in for a big bullish cycle as we saw in 2005-08. Capacity utilisation is going to reach 75-80% levels in next 2years which is equivalent to 90% we saw in 2008.
Source: Cyclical, but for all seasons...
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Yes. I track and hold stocks in both the sectors. Cement cycle should play out in next 2-3 years. CUs will keep on improving. Fertilizers have been doing well and will continue to do well, especially due to clearing of arrears by govt by Mar. It will bring down WC. Also, there are reports of some govt companies in the sector being disinvested.
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@jitenp bhai, just a further update on paper related conversations.
From conversations with some converters, the price increase in writing paper is gathering steam now, with prices up further last month versus the prices in the quarter. Long way to go, but demands from schools of it comes post reopening after COVID should support this further
Yes. Paper has been where the contra investing philosophy has worked. Fairly quickly.
W&P paper has seen good increase in selling price.
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Jiten bhai what is impact of low per unit cost of ongc on p&l of fertilizer stocks
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Caustic Prices now at 26-27k, as per revision on 15.03. another hike in 15 days might be possible.
Disclosure : invested (GACL)
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I usually follow up with local dealers. We can connect on dm.
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I also got rate from dealer in Mumbai and they say price firming up
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Some more Tailwinds for Sugar sector
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