Combining AI and Equity Market

Yesterday I had developed an an code which has combined the power of Gemini and My little knowledge about the market.
As of Now I am able to analysis the concalls only of any company.
For this analysis i have taken 5 questions which are listed below.
q1 = “What is the name of the company which is organising the concall”

q2 = “If the revenew of the company is incresing or decreasing and why”

q3 = “What is the tone of the management, though out the concall and justify your answer, if management have multiple tones through out the concall, state each one of them, also justify your answer.”

q4 = “If there is anything being talked about future then please sort them out and summarize them, without loosing any bit of information.”

q5 = “What are the different challenges or opportunity that the company is expecting in near or long term.”.

Now i am writing this post expecting from the community, to help me find better generalized questions which could be found from a normal concall.

Initially i have tested this for Q4 Concall of HCL Technology.
The results are amazing.

The Results:

1st Answer - The company organizing the concall is HCL Technologies Limited.
2nd Answer - HCL Technologies’ revenue is increasing, but at a slower rate than in the previous fiscal year.

Reasons for increase:

  • Momentum in Services and Software businesses.
  • Strong deal wins, including a significant deal with Verizon.
  • Growth in key verticals like Financial Services and Manufacturing.

Reasons for slower growth:

  • Reduced discretionary spending by clients.
  • Offshoring impact of a large financial services deal, leading to lower revenue recognition in the first quarter.
  • Divestment of the DPO JV with State Street, impacting revenue starting in the second quarter.
    3rd Answer - The management of HCL Technologies displays a mix of tones throughout the concall, primarily:

1. Confident and Optimistic: This is the dominant tone, particularly when discussing their performance in FY24, their differentiated portfolio, new deal wins, and the potential of emerging technologies like GenAI. They highlight their industry-leading growth, strong bookings, and successful integration of IT and Engineering services.

  • Justification: Phrases like “strong growth,” “fastest growth in the industry,” “healthy pipeline,” “significant strategic progress,” “confident to deliver,” and “optimistic about our differentiated portfolio” all point towards a confident and optimistic outlook.

2. Cautious and Realistic: While optimistic, the management acknowledges the challenging macroeconomic environment and its impact on discretionary spending. They are cautious about predicting a rapid rebound in discretionary spending and have factored in a similar trend for FY25.

  • Justification: The repeated emphasis on “reduced discretionary spend,” “cautious optimism,” “consolidation both on the demand and supply side,” and “assuming the environment would be the same” reflects their cautious and realistic approach.

3. Transparent and Explanatory: The management is transparent in explaining their FY25 guidance, especially the reasons for the projected lower growth rate. They patiently address the analysts’ concerns and provide detailed explanations for the anticipated revenue decline in the first two quarters.

  • Justification: The detailed breakdown of the guidance, including the impact of offshoring, the State Street divestment, and the usual productivity pass back, demonstrates their commitment to transparency. Phrases like “let me explain our guidance with some more details,” “to be honest, I would rather tell you upfront,” and “we wanted to explain that in detail” further emphasize this transparency.

4. Slightly Defensive: At times, the management becomes slightly defensive when analysts repeatedly question the lower guidance, particularly regarding the impact of offshoring. They reiterate that it’s a standard accounting practice and emphasize their strong track record of delivering on guidance.

  • Justification: Phrases like “you cannot really strip out my largest deal and start looking at numbers that way,” “it is not the end of the world, come on,” and “the only reason we mention that is to explain the guidance” hint at a slightly defensive tone when their guidance is challenged.

Overall, the management projects a positive outlook for HCL Technologies while acknowledging the current market realities. They are confident in their strategy and execution capabilities but remain cautious about the external environment. Their transparency and willingness to address analysts’ concerns contribute to a sense of trust and credibility.

4th Answer - HCL Technologies’ management outlined several key points regarding their future outlook:

FY25 Guidance:

  • Revenue Growth: Projected at 3% to 5% in constant currency. This is lower than FY24 growth due to anticipated revenue decline in the first two quarters, primarily from offshoring impact in a large financial services deal and the divestment of the DPO JV with State Street. The second half of the year is expected to be stronger, driven by new deal wins.
  • Operating Margin: Expected to remain in the 18% to 19% range, consistent with FY24.
  • CQGR (Constant Currency Growth Rate): Beyond Q1, CQGR is estimated to be in the range of 1% to 2.5%.

Strategic Focus:

  • GenAI: HCL sees significant opportunities in leveraging GenAI for software development efficiency and business use cases. They are investing in training and building capabilities to capitalize on this emerging technology.
  • Integrated IT and Engineering Services: The company believes its integrated go-to-market structure for IT and Engineering services will drive new deal momentum and capture a greater share of client spending.
  • Software Business: HCL is focused on growing its software business by focusing on subscription and support revenue, steadily increasing annual recurring revenue, and converting perpetual licenses to term licenses.

Market Trends:

  • Discretionary Spending: While discretionary spending is yet to rebound, HCL expects a similar pattern of reduced spending in FY25 as seen in FY24.
  • AI and Emerging Technologies: Clients are expected to invest in AI and other emerging technologies to drive productivity, resilience, and business growth.
  • Vendor Consolidation: HCL anticipates vendor consolidation in the market, which will benefit providers who can scale and deliver high-quality services.

Long-Term Outlook:

  • HCL remains optimistic about its long-term growth prospects, driven by its differentiated portfolio, strong leadership position, and focus on emerging technologies. They expect to continue gaining market share and mindshare in the G2000 category.

Overall, HCL Technologies is cautiously optimistic about the future, acknowledging the challenging macroeconomic environment while highlighting their strategic initiatives and growth opportunities.

5th Answer - HCL Technologies identifies several challenges and opportunities in the near and long term:

Challenges:

  • Reduced Discretionary Spending: The ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty has led to reduced discretionary IT spending by clients, impacting HCL’s revenue growth. This trend is expected to continue in FY25.
  • Offshoring Impact: The shift of work from onsite to offshore locations in large deals, while beneficial in the long run, leads to lower revenue recognition in the initial phases due to accounting standards. This is a factor in the projected revenue decline in Q1 FY25.
  • Software Price Inflation: Rising software costs are putting pressure on clients’ IT budgets, forcing them to seek efficiencies elsewhere, potentially impacting service spending.

Opportunities:

  • GenAI: HCL sees GenAI as a significant growth driver, both for improving software development efficiency and for developing new business use cases. They are investing in building expertise and capabilities to capitalize on this emerging technology.
  • Integrated IT and Engineering Services: HCL’s integrated go-to-market approach for IT and Engineering services is expected to create unique offerings and drive new deal momentum, capturing a larger share of client spending.
  • Vendor Consolidation: The trend of vendor consolidation presents an opportunity for HCL to gain market share by demonstrating its ability to scale and deliver high-quality services.
  • Growth in Key Verticals: HCL expects continued growth in key verticals like Financial Services and Manufacturing, driven by strong demand for digital transformation and R&D services.
  • Tech Vertical Rebound: After a challenging year, HCL anticipates a rebound in the Tech vertical as large tech companies increase their investments in R&D.

Overall, HCL Technologies recognizes the challenges posed by the current economic climate but remains optimistic about its ability to leverage emerging technologies, strategic initiatives, and growth opportunities to achieve sustained success.

16 Likes

Nice attempt.

I would like to caution you with completely depending on AI for this.

I would suggest you to ask it to extract the paragraph from which it’s answering (Do some prompt engineering). This will help you to know which location the answer is and you can cross verify and even highlight the said portions.

Also, since these models are “good with words” you may need to manually check why they said something.

Are you copy pasting the whole concall? Do you know that the concall is within the length limit of Gemini?

I actually tried something similar on gpt once but didn’t continue (no reason as such).

You could refine it and add the suggestion to improve its correctness.

It was very nice of you to find your precious time and suggest me, i will definitely take that into consideration, BTW i have adopted a similar approach in the case of finding out tone of the management.

If you see that section, it has come up with extracts of the text.

Talking about GPT, it not like that, i haven’t copied and pasted the text in GPT, i have done some prompting and this whole things is achieved using Gemini and via codding, where you need to give the code just the file path of the .pdf file and it would do the heavy tasking, BTW the questions are fixed as mentioned above.

1 Like

Are you using Gemini advanced? Because Gemini doesn’t reply me these type of queries?

2 Likes

Can you share the GitHub link?

will you be able to share your code?

I was using Gemini, in API format not in UI

Definitely, but only if you share your mail id

As of now i have not done it, but i am trying to build an Website for it, as soon as i became successful in it, i would share it here

there is another way. use concall script from screener - download and upload to google drive and then use gemini @Google Drive plugin to read that script and start context based conversation with gemini to analyse the concall and tone.

3 Likes

Have you tried it for any particular transcript? Could you share your experience in some more detail?

@Sipun_Mohanty this application is already present on a website called
Goindiastocks.com for free,

In this website there is something called stockGPT which exactly does the same and

Further chatgpt 40 and chatgpt premium allows u to create mini gpts which allows u to upload pdf files into the bot and do similar things but chatgpt 40 is unavailable in india and chat gpt premium is a paid version

And if gemini is linked to your email id then upload the file to your google drive and ask gemini to access the file from drive and the. Start questioning.

So try the above methods i have mentioned and please chck how is your method different from the above methods

1 Like

Hi. Do you know any reliable mini GPT which does this?

I am unaware of any such mini gpt but i have seen a video on how to create mini gpt and give internet access or private special doc access for the said purpose of analysis also if my guess is correct Goindiastocks.com
Is using a mini gpt (just a guess though).
And i have tried it for basic questions and have got good response with even reference from the transcripts aswell.

Thank you for suggesting Goindiastocks.com
I tried them just now too. For a version 1, I think it is pretty good. I especially loved that they have all management interviews in a single place.

The whole website is for free and has almost all information relevant for researching a stock i personally feel its better than screener and i found the website to me more accurate than screener

Your inpit ia very helpful.
Does gemini access multiple pdfs as an input like concall transcript for last 4 quarters ?

In the very 1st text you can find, the analysis of HCl Tech Q4 Concall

The Goindia one is great initiative, but i think the performance is miserable, and talking about the drive upload thing, its a great approach but i think if i could successfully transform this into a website i would reduce hassle and it a very big thing in todays world.

I would say, i am kind of unaware of mini GPT but to feel the whole concall the context window should be large enough like Gemini, 2Million tokens. Its very big