When we talk about the stock we own we tend to get carried away a lot mostly in a positive way… Telling a stock will reach 20 k from the current levels is astrology at its best…
The company themselves have not given such forward looking statements… Let’s all stick to analysing a business rationally than giving astronomical valuation to a stock without concrete reasons…
Discl :own bajaj finance… But sane enough to move away if fundamentals change…
Burton malkiel American economist once said " Financial projection is a science which makes astrology look like a respectable science"… (Quote in finception blog)…
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- Investing in Indian Equity Markets | Saurabh Mukherjea | Compounding Equity Investments |
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Sorry guys… this is not the forum to guess what are the stocks purchased by Saurabh under various schemes. @adminph2, please take note. You should start different thread if you guys want to discuss that.
With due respect to Marcellus, Coffee can investing method is not patented to them. So can we discuss more about the method and how to identify candidates for coffee can and pros and cons of using this method rather than eulogizing Saurabh M and his actions blindly… 
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@Marathondreams eulogizing Saurabh M was not the intention at all, I’m sorry that you felt that way. The only reason I think guessing the stocks on his list is useful is because it will give us a list of 14 “coffee-can appropriate” small cap stocks who’s financial statements have been subjected to forensic scrutiny, corporate governance has been thoroughly vetted and management credibility has been rigorously established. Saurabh M and team have given out a lot of details of the amount of time and effort they put in testing these qualitative aspects of the companies through several rounds of management and promotor interactions.
I’m sure you’d appreciate that these are things that retail investors like you and I don’t have the resources to be able to guage for small caps, and so if someone has done it, we should take advantage of it. Then we look into these 14 companies ourselves to pick the ones we think look promising without worrying about being cheated by unscruplous promotors. But point taken, will start a new thread to guess the list 
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Dont think sharing some good information is that wrong, off course coffee can portfolio is not invented by Saurabh Mukherjea, but when you see the rational behind the stock picks it makes sense to evaluate.
Marcellus CCP has a coverage universe of 25 stocks:
1)Hdfc Bank
2)Kotak Bank
3)Bajaj Finance
4)Asian Paints
5)Berger Paints
6)Pidilite
7)Relaxo Footwears
8)Page Industries
9)Dr. Lal Pathlabs
10)Nestle
11)ITC
12)Abbott
13)Divis Labs
14)Axis Bank
15)Titan
16)Eicher
17)TCS
18)Marico
19)Maruti Suzuki
20)Icici Lombard
21)Info Edge
22)Gruh Finance
23)Astral Polytechnik
Unable to find remaining two names.
Disclaimer: No Recommendation. Based on publicly available information.
Source
Power of Cloning Great Ideas & Copycat Investing - Charlie Munger Interview 2017
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Guys , Can someone please share the “2020 CCP portfolio” list which meets Sales grwth>10 every year and ROCE>20% every year for last 10Y. ?
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PMS is all about gathering AUM and making money on that. ITC like stocks are not momentum stocks and for PMS every quarter they need to show results else people will shy away from them. They usually will not have patience.
There is a guy who did comprative study of PMS(Marcellus) V/s PPFAS mutual fund from 2018 till now (Because Marcellus started in 2018), PPFAS MF beats Marcellus on any given day and any time from 2018.
Coming back to ITC there is lot of capex which is done and people are expecting their FMCG business to start contributing to bottomline and once it happens the rerating might take place till then it might move at a slow pace. Needs to have abundant patience and monitor their FMCG transition(although it has taken long time).
There will be few things like ESG, Cigarette taxation by govt which can have impact on the price per se.Lots of players will move in and out when stock prices dont move quickly, Holding this stock is like playing test match. You need to have focus for 5 days, Monitor every session and it might not provide you with excitement but patience is needed.
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Yes, Its not apple to apple comparisons but having said that the main vision of PMS is to beat index and best of MF and that is why they charge such a big fees + performance based fees may also be there.
Sourabh always says about great franchise, Moat and longevity but I failed to see what has gone wrong in ITC in a span of few days. They will justify buying Insurance company by selling ITC that they found better opportunity and long run way.
Sourabh preaches long term investment and all but in span of few days they sold Marico, ITC and the churn is more for a relatively young PMS.
P.S : This analysis was done by Deepak @deevee.
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It is fine, dosent mean ITC will not make returns, maybe they found a better opportunity. Life insurance business is a good business in India and the journey has just started. Love HDFC Life as a company.
ITC should do well in 10 years time frame.
Terry Smith on the Tobacco Industry - Why he Invests in Philip Morris
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CCP performance updates Q4FY 20…
Interesting reading on Coffee can mindset
http://sabercapitalmgt.com/the-coffee-can-edge/
Thanks
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Terence Smith (born in 1953, London, England) is the founder and chief executive of Fundsmith and a notable British fund manager.
He has been referred to as “the English Warren Buffett” for his style of growth investing, which involves buying and holding shares in a relatively small number of established companies
Terry Smith: Choose Quality Stocks Over Value Investing
Master Investor 2014, Terry Smith, How to Play the Emerging Markets
Examples of Companies in our Investable Universe
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Surprised to see Marcellus opened up their entire Little champs portfolio to public which they have not done before. Looks they want retail investors know their portfolio which in turn may create demand for their portfolio stocks.
One has to be careful and do their own research before jumping into.
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They are holding on to these stocks and not selling them. These have been stable for a long time (except Caplin Point exit). This is a boon for retail investors to mirror their portfolio.
Logically, holding on to a stock today and not selling it is the same as buying it today.
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Will a disclosure by Marcellus lead to so much buying by retail that it can create an impactful demand for the stock?
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I see only 2 reasons on why Marcellus made their portfolio public.
1>Most of the portfolio stocks are already known to public, so there is no secret now to hide.
2>Intentionally publish the portfolio stocks - Possibly to get some benefit.
Why all Ace investors publish their portfolio after they buy into any stocks? Hiding them they may not gain anything but letting public know may create demand for their chosen stocks.
Same logic applies hear. I may be wrong.
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There is a flip side to it as well. Porinju used to do this during his hey days, Although his selection of stocks where questionable.
After that 2018 happened and everyone started to bash him and there was drop in his AUM due to performance. So its a double edged sword to disclose all the stocks. I feel existing investors with Marcellus might have felt being let down because they pay management fees and other hefty fees and whole public now can just mirror it without any cost. Only difference now with Marcellus and Public is Allocation %,Price at which they bought and when they will sell might not be known to public.
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What if one fine day Marcellus decides they exit a stock, as I have seen they change their coffee can portfolios every now and then, and the retail investor had maximum borrowed conviction in that very stock and missed the selling. Also, in a typical coffee can approach, typically one or two stocks outperform over long term and may even result in greater than 50% of the portfolio subsequently. If the lucky retail investor buys all 9 (assuming 10) and misses this 10th one or allocates meagre amount to the 10th one. There are many permutation and combination - but mirroring doesn’t work unless you know exact thought process of the person and all his actions at the time he takes, which is impossible. (Assuming the person is taking right decisions as well 
)
Disc: Above are just my thoughts and I can be wrong.
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