ValuePickr Forum

Chins' Portfolio - Two Parts

The next few months are going to be busy with a lot of churn.

I’ve spent a lot of time this month thinking about how the pandemic could play out. On one hand, we’ve become familiar with the pandemic, and in the UK, businesses are open albeit with fewer people in the workplace. My concern is with the assumption that there won’t be strict lockdown measures going ahead. The trajectory of the infection rates shows that the number of new cases is doubling between 1-2 weeks. A mass vaccine drive doesn’t stop the infection rate, and you need 8-12 weeks between the doses where infection is possible in between. My point is that unless strict measures are taken by the various states, the horrifying stories we read in the news will be worse two weeks from now.

From the last time I posted, I’ve done the following:

  • During a rally, took the opportunity to sell IOLCP at cost price, and bought my entire allocation of Jubilant Ingrevia. The memorandum is a good read, and there is a significant price appreciation of the various chemicals it produces. The allocation is 16% right now, but over time after deploying my cash, it’ll settle to 6%

  • Watching the pandemic develop around Rajasthan and Maharasthra, sold AU Small Finance Bank at the start of April around 1200 levels. I’m expecting the recent results and Morgan Stanley commentary to push the price even lower, and I’m happy to pick it back up once there’s some clarity on the pandemic in those states.

  • Sold CreditAccess Grameen at cost price as it looked bearish in the near term. I want to be in an NBFC, and if Bajaj Finance provides a buying opportunity in the near term, I may switch to it.

  • Continued my SIP in Laurus Labs, Deepak Nitrite, Birlasoft and HCL Tech. Being patient with an entry into IDFC First.

The portfolio now looks like this:

I’ve set up a stoploss in HCL Tech and Caplin Point since they’re the closest to my purchase price. If there’s a correction in the markets, I’ll pick them back up lower.

The smallcaps:

I sold some of my Digispice at 70 levels, and withdrew my initial capital from GRM Overseas. After a few more quarters of monitoring their results I’m going to gradually increase my allocation in these three and move them into the main portfolio.

As some of my fixed deposits will be maturing, I’m sitting on a large cash position that I’m going to reinvest after thinking about how I want to diversify. In my entire portfolio, I understand Birlasoft the least, and I may swap to a large cap to temper the portfolio should the opportunity arise. I’m not a fan of timing the markets, but I’m trying to play this through my conviction of how events will unfold, and where risk lies. Should there not be a correction, I already have a framework for a SIP, and I’m okay with buying at higher prices according to my 170DMA method.

Last year at this time we were in the dark… we were guessing regards which sectors would perform well… How the economy would be hit… how long and if a vaccine could be created… this time even if the situation on the ground gets worse the market knows all of the above.
It knows that other countries are slowly recovering post the vaccine rollout and knows that though delayed this will happen in India too. It knows that even under full lockdowns many companies still managed to survive and even thrive. It knows that the likes of IT/Tech, Pharma, Chemicals, FMCG will perform well and won’t get hit regards earnings. It knows that good banks have survived a torrid period and provided sufficient provisions to survive another quarter or two(finance has already corrected since their highs to adjust for the possible downsides next 2 quarters).
I’d be a bit wary of just 2 things

  1. Holding highly overvalued stocks… the market frenzy rose some stocks to crazy valuations and considering this could be a survival period rather than growth period there could be a danger of de ratings in some sectors. De ratings in already undervalued stocks or companies in thriving sectors like IT/Pharma/Chem etc may not be seen.
  2. Some sectors like Entertainment/Travel/real estate may take a hit. If they do then holding cash to buy them if they hit new lows could be a good option over the next few months since we have visibility post 2 quarters.

I think you’ve made some good adjustments to your portfolio and believe you are well set to ride what could be a volatile period.
However, Don’t be surprised if the market just thinks of all of this as a small blip and continues moving upwards/stays in range though since they tend to look forward while the general public looks at the present (and the present does look horribly bad :frowning: ) . Cheers


Thanks for the feedback!

While we know how the various sectors coped with covid last year, there are so many moving parts. Whether we look at sectors that are still recovering from the first lockdown; the effect of the second wave on GDP forecasts; foreign inflow that wasn’t there until late last year; and the question of inflation, I thought it would be prudent to adjust the portfolio and trim only those companies which are close to my entry so as to not lose sleep. I won’t touch the others, and I’m just looking forward to reading new annual reports, and the earnings from this quarter.

I’ve been patient with my allocations for this reason, and held off from investing in some of the stocks I’ve studied.

I understand the logic behind these as unlock trades/investments, but I’m not a fan of these sectors!

I’ve done the same so I fully agree. The moment the second wave hit I removed all my money from all of my overpriced speculative stocks and put them into my undervalued portfolio stocks.
I’m not comfortable leaving IT/Pharma/Chem/Fmcg/Quality Banks(and undervalued dividend supported companies)… infact they make up my entire portfolio.
I have a very concentrated portfolio and I just spend my energy understanding and tracking every detail regards them and macro factors etc are just noise that dissipate the moment I hear the quarterly concalls so I’ve learnt to ignore most of them and I just use periods of panic to keep adding.
A good business is a good business long term but with pitfalls along the way. I happen to own one and it’s my main source of income. The past 1 year has been horrible… but I know that a year from now it will be as profitable as it was pre covid since my contacts/brand etc will remain so I wouldn’t dream of selling it in a distress sale right now. I don’t need to worry about if FIIs put money in/remove into the economy for my business to run… I just need to look at specific micro factors that affect my business.
Same thing applies to all of the businesses I’ve invested in but instead of me figuring out growth plans I have people smarter than me in those sectors worrying about it instead. Our job then becomes to just understand and buy the business at cheap valuations and let them run it after and just check up on them every quarter to ensure they are doing a good job :slight_smile: . That mindset has got me through this volatile year(and volatile past decade too lol) and I’d suggest applying it too since there will be periods of huge panic over the next few quarters. I’m not a fan of entertainment/travel/auto etc too…however, if they do get beaten down to crazy low levels they could give a no loss opportunity somewhere down the road when the other sectors get fully priced in. Also, I’ve realised I’m only not a fan of a sector until I study it thoroughly and then I end up becoming one (happened recently with commercial real estate… something I always avoided)
Anyway sorry for hijacking your thread. please flag if diverting from your posts. Cheers. And good luck


@Malkd, I related a lot to your write up on your family’s style of investing, and there are so many similarities on my side. My mother invested in Infosys shortly after the IPO (and a little in my name long ago, which compounded into the holding I have), and her portfolio is centered around concentrated allocations of Larsen, TCS, Infosys and Reliance that have been held for over a decade. She’s been invested through the IT bubble, the 2008 fallout, and didn’t flinch during last year’s crash.

She echoed this, but also spoke about how quality companies may be completely unrecognisable in the future. As a shareholder of Tata Elxsi from the early 2000s, she watched it transform from visual effects and providing solutions to the film industry into what it has become today. With Reliance, the story changed from textiles to petrochemicals to the retail and communications giant it has become. She won’t sell any of her Birla group shares for the same reasons, whether it is Grasim’s potential ventures in the paint industry or ABCapital’s ambitions of being a bank. Perhaps we can’t fully account for these differences over large horizons, but only the biggest companies can afford the opportunity cost of reshaping what they do in a way that others cannot.

You mentioned that your portfolio could have the freedom to be based on high beta / exploratory stocks, you’ll see the large cap stalwarts missing from my portfolio for the same reasons. I want this portfolio to be about those companies that would be central to the Indian economy ten years from now.

For example, I’ve written about liking Hindustan Foods a lot, I genuinely think contract manufacturing will become very lucrative to many industries in the next five years, and their board of directors is filled with people that they’ve pinched from leading FMCG companies. Their management commentary on revenue targets and segment growth is as bullish as Laurus Labs’, and this looks to be the start of a very exciting story. My own key trigger is for them to bag either export orders or form relations with international companies, something they say is a part of their plans post FY22-23, but is too early to yet explore.

Please feel free to drop in on this thread, it’s always nice to hear from people outside my circle of family and friends!

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Cheers @Chins . I have been tracking Hindustan foods for a while and thought it was too expensive at rs. 800 lol. Fantastic company and I hope you do well with it but I’ve personally missed the bus there. With laurus I’ve got in early luckily and feel that market fervour has not even begun yet so there is a loooong way to go.
I agree with you… the day i start investing in large cap stalwarts is the day I just sell my whole portfolio and move it into mutual funds.
There is no better feeling than seeing a company you bet on move from a company that grows with debt, to growing with internal accruals, to growing with free cash flow with loads of cash to spare. Getting in at an early stage in their life cycle and cheering them on as they rise through re ratings through each of those stages and move from small to mid to large caps and finally sitting back and relaxing when they do become stalwarts that the whole country wants to own over the years is the reason I love investing. Good luck to both of us :slight_smile:

Edit: @12years … they mean the same thing. What I mean above is basically growing with internal accruals without cash to spare, followed by growing with internal accruals with loads of free cash to spare to distribute amongst shareholders while still maintaining SSGR. Dint want to clutter chins thread so just edited the answer here itself. Cheers


What is the diff between growing with accruals and growing with fcf

Congrats to your mother and your success story. Always good to hear from and about believers! A point that comes to mind in cases of real long term holding like 2 decades or more…I know of a family friend who held ONGC as an employee and bought more early on…he got it for around 10 rs if I am not wrong and sold close to 1200 decades later as he needed money to buy home…in between he got shares of Gail and petronet for free/rights as well…point is he was lucky that he needed money when ONGC was at its peak…second point is many people do not like ONGC at all today but this guy made a 100 bagger from it…
So in multidecadal holding, the biggest risk is the type of economy changing and the company not changing along with it…for eg. India was more of an infra capex economy 20 years back and more of a consumption today… although many pandits are singing harbinger to a big capex cycle coming again…
RIL transformed itself along with type of economy, ONGC coudnt…the market cap of ONGC used to lead RIL once…sad to see the huge difference today…


Minor updates as I wanted to write down my thoughts.

I’ve become interested in RPSG Ventures after studying the D2C space, and its prospects for growth over the next decade. It looks like one of those companies that one must be patient with as it takes time to incubate the businesses they’re involved in. That said, it has reserves greater than the market cap, trading at a third of the book value and currently testing resistance levels from Feb 2020.

I’m thinking of swapping out from Birlasoft, but it’s been consolidating in a very close range around its 52W high for a long time. If it breaks out from these levels, perhaps a rally would give me an incentive to exit, but there’s no rush.

On another note, I’ve bought an initial tranche of Security and Intelligence Services, and once again I’m very grateful to have a forum like VP where investors have written their thoughts on the business and concerns with the management over the years. There looks to be a huge addressable market in this space for organised players to tap into, and the managing director comes across well in the interviews I’ve watched so far.

There are a lot of similarities between the sizes of SIS and QuessCorp, another player in the workforce space (albeit in staffing), but on paper SIS looks to be the better run business:

SIS is the company with better return ratios, a great SSGR, and a sizeable war chest in the reserves. Yet, the stock price has been languishing and is currently close to the all time low:

Furthermore this surprises me because the stability in their margins over the years is a beautiful sight to behold:

Institutional holdings have increased significantly over the last three years, with FIIs holding 11.45% from 5.28% in 2018.

I’m going to spend more time on the recent earnings call and investor presentation and then find every single appearance the management has made. I’m happy for this to be the contrarian play in my portfolio once I understand the concerns VP investors have had two years ago, and whether they have changed. I also want to study both QuessCorp and the industry better.


You got good stocks in your portfolio and I like your idea of keeping the core portfolio separate from the micro caps. However what is the rationale behind adding Caplin Point as part of the core portfolio with high allocation % - there are lingering questions about their business model, accounting practices -etc. Almost nil institutional holding which is unusual for a pharma company. What makes this a high conviction bet?


Hi Krishna,

Thanks for the comments. Caplin Point has polarised opinions on it, and this comment from Donald Sir highlights what seniors thought after visiting the firm. Senior boarders almost never urge people to avoid a company, and if Caplin Point destroys wealth, this warning has been out there for years and I only have myself to blame.

My investment thesis is based on two key things:

  1. The company in 2021 is different from the 22Cr. bottomline company that Caplin Point was in 2013. I don’t want to reopen the debate that was had around the post that I’ve linked, but Caplin is now much larger, has higher margin products than they did eight years ago, hasn’t had a single regulatory blip, and is entering more traditional markets like the US, Canada, Australia. This means that the context surrounding the concerns has also changed. They are doing things within the pharma space that I’d like to be a part of, such as their Clinical Research wing, Amaris, and Caplin Steriles both of which have interesting people on the board of directors.
  1. I think this company is becoming more investor friendly over time, and from being headed by a first generation entrepreneur like Mr. Parthibhan to his son who’s Harvard educated, we should continue to see Caplin evolve as time progresses. That’s clearly their goal, and the story has legs until 2023 atleast. In the near future, I’m waiting to see the response that their pre-mixed line and other new ANDAs have, and what market share their products will have in the new geographies.

The key question isn’t to ask if Caplin is the best pharma company in the market right now, but rather whether it’s becoming better or worse over time, and I think it is the former. I don’t know why institutional holdings are low. Currently, only small cap index funds hold Caplin, but there are other companies that they don’t hold like Granules. I’ll write a longer update over the weekend when I have more time, and after listening to their earnings call that I’ve been meaning to.

Would love to hear your thoughts!



Yeah I had gone through the whole thread back in 2016-17 when the stock was in similar bull run. There were major red flags as highlighted by the senior members of the forum and I decided stay away from the stock. Those comments were from 2013 but I can see similar concerns raised and debated even in 2021 so its like the saying - the more things change the more they stay the same!

I don’t have any views on the stock as I am not following it now but in general I lack conviction to invest in such stocks so I will give it a miss. Purely my personal opinion. Thanks!

Thanks for your comments, I understand why people would make the decision to stay away. My own horizon for Caplin is atleast until 2023, at which point we’d see more of their warehouses in LatAm, their backward integration and the stores in the US. My plan then is to decide between Caplin and the Biocon Biologics IPO which is expected around the same timeline.

As far as losses go, I use the weekends to evaluate support and resistance lines to set up (trailing/graded) stoplosses in a few stocks, have a plan to release some of my tranches that were bought a little high, and look for prices for my SIP.

I try to constantly evaluate what’s missing in my portfolio, and as I learn more about various sectors, my convictions change. If we find ourselves in a situation like March last year (hopefully not soon), who knows, I may be able to get companies like Syngene, Hindustan Foods or Affle cheaper, and then I’d rethink the portfolio composition and allocations.

Until then, should the growth pan out and funds potentially become interested, there’s an opportunity.


I have a few weeks off, and due to the incessant rain, I’ve been indoors expanding my circle of competence. This week’s readings were on understanding NBFCs better, and dismantling every aspect of the EV future in India. Avendus has a brilliant deep dive on EVs which explains the interplay between policy, industry, and technology in every single part of an electric vehicle. I’ll write a longer post after I’ve studied every single company in the space; it’s still early days in this theme.

On the portfolio front, I’ve divided my cash position into 24 parts and my strategy is to SIP every month for the next two years. I pick up more of the stock that’s closest to the support line, but try to spread it out in a way that makes sense. Should there be an opportunity at really attractive valuations, I invest a much larger tranche, as seen in Jubilant Ingrevia. At the end of a year the allocations will align.

Some transactions from this quarter:

  • Picked up a tranche of CreditAccess Grameen at 600 levels, almost a 20% discount from my first entry. Sent AU Small Finance Bank to the family portfolio.

  • Started an SIP into IDFC First Bank.

  • Bought two tranches of SIS, trading at really attractive valuations and the chart looks like the formation of a cup/handle pattern from the first week of April (The rest of the chart is disgusting). Happy for this money to be locked in for a long time should things not work out.

  • Hindustan Foods being range bound for the last few months has been wonderful, allowing its 200DMA to catch up a little to current prices. Usually rallies just before results, I’m hoping to pick some more up.

  • Birlasoft broke out of its 52W high with huge volumes. There’s no reason to exit in a hurry, I’ll only replace if there’s a better company in the space. I’m yet to fully study the IT sector.

  • With Trent, the goal is to evaluate the business again once we have details about Nykaa’s reported IPO. That’s a company in the space that I’ve been eyeing for a long time, but can’t say anything without concrete details regarding valuations, etc.

With the smallcaps, I was wrong in my post from early May. After playing it defensive, I watched KMC Speciality and BCL Industries double. No regrets though :slight_smile:

I’ve cheated a little. RPSG Ventures should technically be in my main portfolio, but I’ve decided to follow my rule of tracking the smallcaps over an extended period of time before bringing them into the core portfolio. With Ugro, I was discussing the idea with a friend who works in a VC, and this coincided with the discussion here at Valuepickr.

  • Instead of allocating 10% to each company, I’ve decided to raise the allocations in both Ugro and RPSG to reflect conviction.

  • I’ve withdrawn my initial capital from Mangalam Organic, Digispice and GRM Overseas. It’s astounding that GRM still hasn’t crossed the 1000Cr. mark despite running up 24 times since March 2020 lows.

  • The goal with all of these companies (except for RPSG and Ugro) is to continue to take initial capital off the table, giving me a long tail of essentially free smallcaps. If I hadn’t sold KMC and BCL, there would be two more in this list, but lesson learnt.

Some company highlights this quarter:

Tata Power

I’m surprised that there isn’t a Tata Power thread on this forum, but I haven’t seen any mentions of people following the earnings calls, so I’ll post my own notes from this quarter. The simplest investment thesis to Tata Power is seen by looking at their revenue breakup. A few years ago, they decided to move away from coal power generation, and focus their strategy towards scaling up their renewables, transmission and distribution businesses and making them more effective. At the same time, they’re trying to bring down debt and turn the company around.

Concall Notes
  • Through acquisitions in Odissa, they’ve gone from 2.6million customers in FY20 to 12million customers in FY21 and have a target to triple the current revenues in Odissa by FY25.

  • Renewables grew from 88Cr. to 175Cr. this year. Focus on solar EPC, rooftops and pumps. Tata Power Solar revenues grew from 2144Cr. to 5119Cr. this year.

  • Solar EPC orderbook of 2294 Cr. in Q421, total orderbook of 8742 Cr.

  • Rooftop revenue grew to 300Cr, orderbook of 600Cr.

  • Solar roof digital campaign → 5Cr. impressions and 41,000 leads → 43 Cr. order value.

  • Solar pumps: 6500 pumps this quarter, 13000 pumps in FY21.

  • Capacity doubled for solar cell/module manufacturing in Bangalore.

  • Reduced debt by 7500Cr by divestment / fund raise. Still planning to get rid of coal mines in Indonesia, other countries.

  • Interest cost down to 7.4% from 8.3% last year.

  • Debt/Equity down to 1.4 from 2.0 last year.

  • EV charging points at all important railways in Mumbai. 175 charging stations this quarter. Total 456 chargers for 4W, 80 ultra high capacity bus chargers in Mumbai / Ahmedabad.

The utilities/distribution framework will become a pillar of the EV adoption in the country. Most transformers can’t handle the additional load that EV chargers (and home chargers) bring, and will need to be upgraded/separate transformers will have to be installed.

A discussion on transmission/utilities would be remiss without mentioning the Adani group, but the following articles convinced me of giving them a miss regardless of the returns.

Jubilant Ingrevia

I’ve written about my concerns regarding the Jubilant group’s approach to regulations in its thread. I have no doubts about the company’s ability to scale up over the years, but I’m going to have trouble sleeping at night knowing there’s a regulatory sword hanging over its head.

The option that makes the most sense to me is to slowly book profits in a way to take my initial capital off the table. This way the regulatory risks will only affect the profits, and I can then happily sit on the company for years. I’m still waiting for the earnings meeting and the annual report.


As a side note, I’ve created an imaginary wealth destruction portfolio, where one can (unscientifically) measure market fervor/froth by seeing how much they run up over time.

Suggestions welcome for the worst investments(or historic wealth destroyers) you can think of, that you would recommend absolutely everyone to avoid. :slight_smile:


Hi @Chins , Thanks for sharing this. i have a question related to tracking the support levels on Google finance.
Have you automated the 200 DMA in your google sheet ? If yes, then how did you do it ?

Hi @AlokMoghe.

I try to automate everything I can on Google finance.

The code for the 200DMA is:

=average(query(sort(GoogleFinance(“NSE:” & A13,“close”, today()-300, today()),1,0),“select Col2 limit 200”))

where I keep the NSE codes in my A column, in this case A13. An example with Infosys, replacing the A13 is:

=average(query(sort(GoogleFinance(“NSE:” & “INFY”,“close”, today()-300, today()),1,0),“select Col2 limit 200”))

Sometimes the NSE codes return an error, or you may be looking for a company listed on the BSE. In this case, you can just add the six digit BSE code directly. For GRM Overseas,

=average(query(sort(GoogleFinance(“531449”,“close”, today()-300, today()),1,0),“select Col2 limit 200”))

It’s based on this post at stack overflow. Please note that this calculates the simple moving average, while the support lines on are exponential moving averages.

Once you have the moving averages, you can use the current price to calculate how much higher / lower it is to the support line, and I use conditional formatting to make it easy to eyeball.

There’s a whole host of attributes that google finance automatically parses, including daily volumes, P/E multiples, etc. You can read more here:

Edit: Here are the daily volumes compared to the 50 day average for my portfolio:

If you’d like the full sheets template, I can send it to you via DM :slight_smile:


Since I’ve got a few messages, here’s the portfolio format on sheets. Have fun playing around with it. I’ll update some of the ratios that need to be entered manually at some point.

If the first sheet is too heavy, I usually hide most of the columns. The second sheet is a quick condensed view of the data. If you need to use it, the simplest way is to select all cells and copy. It’ll then allow you to paste it in your own sheet.

Most online portfolio trackers offer the same functionality. I like editing and formatting the data to my own preferences, hence the sheet.

Edit: The risk ratio you see is very primitive. It’s simply a backward looking ratio of 1 year returns / volatility, showing you how much risk you’ve taken on for the returns generated. The SSGR formula has been entered into Screener which then spits it out for my companies. It has its own caveats.


I wanted to highlight two pieces here on VP that really resonated with me this month.

These are wonderful posts on valuations, wealth creation through re-ratings, and conviction during periods of underperformance. It made me think of past exits due to headwinds, and understand the pitfalls in my portfolio better.

I hope the SIP method is clear from this. Even if the current price is far higher than the daily moving averages, the overall buy average will be very close to the support lines. The next tranches will be of Tata Power, Trent and CreditAccess Grameen towards the middle of the month.

Jubilant Ingrevia has been a really difficult stock to part with, but I used the run up today to withdraw my initial capital. I’m sure there will be a lot more value unlocking as the results, annual report and AGM shed light on the business, but now I’m happy to watch on without fear. Once I have clarity on the environmental clearances in 2022 and the effect of the NGT orders, perhaps I’ll add more then. Good ESG metrics are important to me, and a company that’s high on the wishlist at the moment is Vinati Organics.

I’ve put the Ingrevia allocation into GPIL which was down almost 5% yesterday. The wonderful thread here covers the investment thesis.

The most expensive holding in my portfolio is Hindustan Foods, but my initial tranches were bought when it was inline with its historic multiples, and reasonable compared to Varun Beverages. Navin Fluorine is expensive due to a tax rebate they got in March 2020, which got discarded from the TTM calculations after this quarter’s results. I regret not buying IDFC First closer to book value at the start of the year. This said, I like valuing a company by comparing the market cap by the opportunity size, and that offers me some comfort in Hindustan Foods but everyday I wish it were cheaper.

What I haven’t mentioned in this thread is how I’ve been splitting strategies with my family on sectors we like. My mom has been accumulating ITC, IOLCP, Galaxy Surfactants, Borosil Renewables and Vaibhav Global among others. Perhaps I’ll ask her to share her experience in the markets here on VP as some of her holdings are from the 1990s, and include some tragedies such as Opto Circuits and Photoquip. I’ve also subscribed to the Quantamental smallcase, and will invest after opening up an account with a new broker.

It’s annoying me that the wealth destruction portfolio is creating wealth. This looks like a smallcap market that will generate returns in the short term even if you invest blindly, and that’s making me uneasy.

To end May on a positive note, we’ve sold most of our GRM Overseas holdings. The investment thesis was purely an undervaluation play, and in six months it has gone up almost ten times from the first tranche. A share of the profits have gone towards much needed renovations at my mom’s house, and a part of it to covid relief and charity. The small remaining holdings will be kept for the bonus. :slight_smile:

At the same time, I’m baffled and see it as nothing but luck. I’d never have imagined six months ago that across all the holdings, this would be the company the market chose to reward.


@Chins Tata Power Solar receives EPC orders for Rs. 686 crore from NTPC to set up Solar PV projects.

it is consolidating in last 1 month. Hope to see next leg of rally.

Disc - Invested