So, I started tracking it recently. As of today, it is on upper circuit at 143. It has risen 43% in last 3 trading session. Could be a potential reversal.
Why I am tracking it ? - I recently concluded reading prasenjit Paul’s book where he as discussed about this as one of his multibaggers and reasons for the same. I guess his price point was somewhere in 70s when he bought it in 2018. It was written in 2022. This stock made a high of Rs. 500 in Sep 2022 and since then have been on a continuous decline and made a recent low at Rs. 100. The reason is declining fundamentals which is obvious from a high-level look. However, the interesting part is that neither Prasenjit nor the promotors sold a single share in these last 3 years. That tells me that these are probably temporary setbacks company might be facing and both of them expects a reversal. I tried finding more information on this but unfortunately, couldn’t find much as to why the fundamentals declined. On a high level, from some sources, I concluded that it was due to capex in expansion and competition from China.
What is the right price point - I feel this stock has already made the bottom of 100 and it might not go below that in expectation of a better Q4 results due to new capacity expansion showing results. However, I was cautious to not enter now and is waiting for Q4 results. If they deliver good Q4 results, I am taking my position then.
However, the question is, what if it rises another 40% until then ? Yes, that is a possibility, but I guess I am learning to be patient for the right time to enter and not jump suddenly.
The recent 40% rise is, in my opinion due to the sentiment that Trumps recent tarrifs impact China more than India so this would turn favorable to specialty chemical industry of India and thus Chemcrux will also benefit.
I am expecting that the stock should consolidate at these new levels until Q4 results and take a direction from there.
Happy to hear thoughts from others.