Ceinsys Tech-Engineering, Geospatial & IT solutions Company

I think negative has been fairly documented in the thread on Order book slowness, acquisition delay and Receivables etc, i saw certain important positive indicators during the last concall which are listed below

  1. Consolidated Level profitability

There are certain large contracts which are under negotiation also over there, and we expect to kind of give some kind of update on that in the Quarter 4. So, the investments which are happening and the standalone results are better than the consolidated. Your observation is right.
But I think what is the EBITDA negative is more of investment rather than expenditure.

So, if you look at this quarter also, we expensed out around Rs. 7-8 crores. And that is what has been happening in the last two-three quarters because we are substantially investing into the business development in the U.S. market. The result of this is what we are expecting, as we already clarified in the previous investor call, in the Quarter 4 of this year and Quarter 1 of the next year onwards, we should see a bigger pipeline.

  1. Order Book pipeline and Win rate probability

CA Garvit Goyal: So, out of that Rs. 700 Cr, Rs. 800 Cr, what is the success priority there? Like, what is the competitive intensity there?

Kaushik Khona: I think that will be all subject to the actual numbers. Abhayji, you want to comment on that?
Abhay Kimmatkar: Yes, but see, there are two parts of that. One is you bid for a L1 side, and there are a lot of competitions. Some are the technology projects where we have a niche kind of offerings and where we have an advantage over winning the tender. So, I can say out of the 700-800, we can win up to 70% to 80%. I cannot put a number to that, but that is the probability we can expect to have.

  1. Acquisition Revenue range

Darshil Jhaveri: So, what is the rough size of it? Like, for example, a Rs. 50 crores company or Rs. 20 crores
company? I don’t want an exact figure, but a rough range, okay, this is what we are looking at
because we have improved our margins and everything very well. So, will it be margin accretive,EPS accretive? Just any kind of color on that would be really good. This is what we are looking at. I know whatever closes, then that closes, but at least that is a filter for us.

CA Amita Saxena: Kaushikji, please, you can take it.

Kaushik Khona: See, as I said, I don’t want to speculate. And if you have seen our intentions, we have already mobilized $28 million, which is Rs. 235 crores. So, our target is not to look at Rs. 2, 5, 10 crores company, small companies. We are looking at companies which have a potential of either generating a revenue of Rs. 50, 100, 200 crores is what we are looking at.

So, let’s keep our fingers crossed. Let’s wait for some more time. We have waited enough, and I think in the next one or two months or maximum by the next one quarter, we should be able to give some kind of good news.

  1. US Sales & Marketing effort results

Nirvana Laha: Give some color on what these employees are exactly going to do for us?

Kaushik Khona: No. So, these employees are. Surejji, you are there?

Surej K. P.: So, just to answer your question, the focus is way beyond what VTS was doing beyond telecom.The idea is to take the capabilities that we have developed outside the U.S. into the U.S. market.
So, there is active engagement with customers across multiple domains which are a stronghold ,which is in water, in telecom, in utilities, also road transportation. So, it is broader. Obviously, the mobility business continues to grow from an engineering standpoint. So, these are all the areas that we are targeting to engaging and growing the businesses outside of India.

Nirvana Laha: Good to know that. Last question on this one is, you have mentioned that the costs will sort of start tapering from Q4 to Q1. So, does that mean that the revenues will start growing and they will start absorbing the costs? Or are you saying that the costs on an absolute basis will start
going up?

Kaushik Khona: No, I think what I expect is the revenue will be substantially improving, which will absorb the cost.

  1. AI/ML Benefits

This is my last question. Like, sir, what are the AI solutions we provide to our customers which
help them in reducing costs?

Kaushik Khona: So, I had already mentioned in my speech that the present AI/ML solutions we are enhancing in-house, where we are trying to improve efficiency and reduce the cost of people, and also increase the turnaround time. So, I think at present, we are not selling this to the customer.However, we have done a good amount of, I would say, POC even for the other customers, and we have been successful with the kind of accuracy more than 95% as required by the customers.
We have also filed two patents for the kind of process technology which we have developed on this AI/ML technology.
So, I think presently, we have been focusing on getting efficiency benefits within the project which we are handling. Some of the projects which we have also used, I would say, also a little bit application has also been made in the river linking project, in the DPMS project. Some of the
projects have benefited because of the AI initiatives which we have taken.

Abhay Kimmatkar: I will add into that. Geospatial technology is more of a remote sensing kind of application, which is completely relying on the AI side. We have been doing a lot of tooling all this while, but since the advent of AI, we have been able to do a lot of efficiency in data processing, which has contained the costs and benefited the customer.
There are two direct benefits. One is the timeline wherein the delivery was happening. So, we are drastically reduced by 30%. And then, of course, the productivity on the cost side. So, those two are the major benefits we have got, and we have passed it on to the customer. As we have been on the core geospatial and data side, we have been able to do this advancement in our delivery side.

Disc: Invested

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Any information on this order. Does it include Ceinsys as well

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“Ease of doing business” in India strikes again.

Source:
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/pm-modi-jal-jeevan-mission-centre-penalty-recovery-10385460/

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Ceinsystech operates in Maharashtra
Out of 129 cr - 126CR is from gujarat and rajasthan.

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It’s not about the penalties. Funds are not being released for JJM.

So far, 32 states and Union Territories have submitted updates, and 20 of them — including Assam, Jharkhand, Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and West Bengal — have reported cases of irregularities. Action has been initiated in 607 cases, involving 62 officials, 969 contractors and 153 third-party inspection agencies. The government said nine FIRs have been filed so far, leading to arrests of a former minister, 10 officials and eight contractors.
PM Modi has stressed in review meetings that transparency and accountability are non-negotiable pillars of the mission, and that functional household tap water, not merely infrastructure on paper, will determine future funding.

Src: Fix complaints about Jal Jeevan Mission first, funds will follow: PM to states - India Today

Panic is happening here. It’s not like Ceinsys and Genesys existence depends on Jal jeevan Mission only.

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Numerous contractors and firms have been implicated in irregularities and scams involving the Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM), with some facing arrest, blacklisting, and other punitive actions across India

. Most recently, focus has been on contractors operating in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.

Contractors and firms implicated in Rajasthan

Multiple individuals and their firms have been investigated and arrested by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) in Rajasthan. They are accused of using fake documents, securing tenders by bribing officials, and laundering the illicit money.

  • Padamchand Jain: The proprietor of Shree Shyam Tubewell Company, Jain was arrested by the ED in connection with the JJM scam. He is accused of bribing senior Public Health Engineering Department (PHED) officials to secure tenders and receive illegal protection.
  • Piyush Jain: The son of Padamchand Jain, he was also arrested by the ED. He is alleged to have been involved in large-scale illegal money transactions related to the scam.
  • Mahesh Mittal: The proprietor of Shree Ganpati Tubewell Company, Mittal was arrested by the ED in June 2024. He is accused of working with Padamchand Jain to secure JJM contracts using fake work experience certificates.
  • Sanjay Badaya: An alleged middleman in the scam, he was arrested by the ED in July 2024. The ED claims he facilitated bribes between contractors and former PHED Minister Mahesh Joshi.

Contractors penalized in Madhya Pradesh

In a recent move, Madhya Pradesh blacklisted hundreds of agencies and terminated contracts due to delays and poor work quality.

  • 280 agencies: The Public Health Engineering (PHE) Department blacklisted a total of 280 agencies for delays in implementing projects.
  • 22 contractors: In addition, the contracts of 22 contractors were terminated for persistent non-performance.
  • Unspecified contractor: One contractor was terminated and had a Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) case registered against them for submitting a fake bank guarantee.

Broader crackdown on contractors

The central government’s directive for a nationwide crackdown has led to many more contractors facing action across different states.

  • As of November 26, 2025, a total of 236 contractors have been blacklisted or debarred across India.
  • 116 contracts have been terminated, with penalties imposed on numerous other agencies.
  • The government has also focused on recovering penalties from erring agencies, with significant amounts identified for recovery in states like Gujarat and Rajasthan.
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Ceinsys is transitioning from a B2G play to a B2B play which market is discounting at the moment. Next trigger will be whatever is happening in US and that should shift the revenue mix heavily towards technology solutions and solve the receivables issue and improve the margins even further.

H1FY26 should end with 60:40 split.

Disclaimer: Invested & Biased.

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There is no name of Ceinsys till now… Majority of the companies are from Madhya Pradesh,Gujrat and Rajasthan only..

Still Govt may take extra care before releasing the funds to JJM scheme so there may be delay in receiving the funds from Govt.. Except this nothing seems to be against Ceinsys till now..

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Rightly said..there is no name of cenisy as well mostly there jjm order were from U.P and Maharashtra and fraud case were from other states Rajasthan n etc..because of fraud by some all are taking heating fund off jjm will release as management guided q3,q4 we can see some big orders n fund will received but average down doesn’t be good right now..wait for some more clarity end of the day depend upon each person mindset

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This is irony of stock market, at 2000 we had very few sellers in the company, after dropping to 930, we have very few buyers in the same company, what changed? PE dropped from above 50 to mere 18, does that mean it is cheap? This is problem when you deal with Govt projects, order book may cancel, project delays are obvious which stretch working capital, profits are booked however cash flows are stuck in form of receivables untill bribe is paid. Find Genesys business model and moat is far superior than Ceinsystech. Had entered in this last Dec at 1030-40 levels and exited average 1900 in very short period because PE was too high. Same with Genesys, entered around 650 and sold around 1030. Genesys again entered at 630 thinking its cheap but it has become more cheaper and lost 30% crom even there​:grinning_face::grinning_face:

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So a stock is cheap if it does not go down after you buy and is not cheap if it goes down further after you buy ?

Cheap and costly decisions are made for sustainable business models over a longer growth horizons and clear visibility of revenues not thematic stocks. In bear market valuations are done based on cash flows not profits. Definition of cheap in a bull market based on some futuristic growth and costly in bear market due to cash flow is different due to human psychology. Things looking cheap in a bull market may become costly in bear markets as fundamental change even after price drop but things are hidden in business model of company and moat. I will put this in infra sector as maximum dependency on govt capex. Genesys has a larger moat as its a product company.

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I think you are getting swayed by sentimental reasons rather than fundamental reasons. The facts of the business is as it was last year when you bought if not better(technology solutions portion of revenue has increased) .And its non gov business is improving .And whats wrong with gov exposure? They are not going to get any money anymore ??
Also, ceinsys has more promoter holding, better shareholder communication and execution track record than genesys(low promoter holding going lower) . As of now, genesys also gets most of its revenue ( and will continue to do so even if digital twinning takes off) from various gov bodies only .It has opened a new chapter with licensing contract with tata motors PV , but no data to extrapolate posible revenues . Do you have anything else that makes it a better bet than ceinsys?
Disc. Have both.Ceinsys more, Genesys less.

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In Q1FY26, management had mentioned that the target for new orders in FY26 is ₹800–900cr out of which ₹400cr would be from Jal Jeevan Mission. Given the recent development regarding JJM, half the visibility of order book is gone for the time being. Though the business mix is definitely improving, this will act as an overhang on the stock for the foreseeable future.

For me this is a good reminder to not pay up for order book businesses. It is possible that 1 year down the line, this might be a good valution entry point, if the business continues to diversify.

Disc:- Had a 1% postion which I exited at 20% loss to invest in other opportunities.

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Potential revenue from Tata motors is close to 500-600 cr, there are other OEM’s as well. Genesys has best quality 3D ADAS maps which is strong moat. Ceinsystech is no where close. I don’t buy companies which are based on order book untill available on deep discount that too for swing trade. Ceinsystech doesn’t qualify in my selection parameters. Genesys i am holding and will increase stake once price stabilize. No offence to anyone holding stock, views are personal.

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The management said in the last quarter “Even if JJM comes or not come, we will be closing what number we have envisaged. If at all JJM comes, then we will be surpassing the target numbers”

I feel like selling at this point makes no sense since almost all negative predictions have been priced in, i would rather hold for 1 or 2 more quarter and see how the story pans out.

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Please advise key differentiators for you choosing Genesy as your preferred pick as I from a broad view, I feel financial parameters’ of Ceinsys are better like PE,PEG,ROCE,ROE, Promoter Shareholding.

Any more insides into Genesys moat in 3D ADAS maps also will be helpful and its future revenue potential with margins

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Yes, that is correct. The management has reiterated this guidance in Q2FY26 concall as well.

They also mentioned that their success rate is 70-80%.

As per the PPT, they have won orders worth 148 crs since 1st April 2025.

Now, if the managment has to meet their guidance (with or without JJM) then they need to book around 490 crs worth of orders (70% of 700 crs, lower end of guidance) this fiscal, out of which they have received around 148 crs. So, they need another 342 crs worth of order in the remaining 4 months.

In Q1FY26, they also mentioned the following with respect to them expecting orders from JJL. At that point, they were expecting the audit to finish and order inflow to begin again but now this has changed.

Hopefully they are still able to meet this guidance.

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Ceinsystech is based on order book and valuation method is discounted cash flow, this fall is attributed to anticipated loss in 400 cr JJM orders hence stock is correcting to mean valuation which i am afraid is further lower from here as well. Genesys has much diversified moat and will attract investor attention. 3D ADAS mapping is mandatory for connected cars technology. Land digitization, twin Mapping, GIS for underground piping, smart city development will have mandatory twin mapping and AMC for better urben planning.

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