When companies start declaring 3-5-10 crore orders, it always seems to me they are trying to gain markets attention and push up the stock price.
JJM have restarted and the company was in my criteria so looked at it, pros and cons from my side and also running some valuation numbers:
Pros:
- Shift towards tech based solutions in geo spatial —> repeatable and higher margin revenue
- Cheap (just based on topline and margin), even after accounting for writeoffs and provisioning still upside.
- Jal Jeevan mission restarted again now and payments being disbursed (company is trying to diversify away from govt, contracts though)
Cons:
- frequent management changes
- 3 CFO’s in last 3 FY’s —> stable since 2024
- CEO designate left the company
- diversification away from govt. contracts taking longer than expected due to acquisition timelines being stretched ( might be good as company is taking time to find the right acq. target)
- company tries to ride the hype train:
- Add AI to the company ( AI is being used to process and clean the data though —> mentioned by the company)
- mentioned metaverse, gaming etc without much followup
- announced data center entry (for designing) and then dropped it
projections & valuations:
(estimated till FY 29 as JJM is till 2028, not much value on projections after it, can think later as company further diversifies)
- Fy26 3 qtrs done
- went conservative in topline
- assumed the cashflow situation will improve but still took heightened writeoffs and provisioning into equation.
Some key notes on Transcripts
Page 4 of 22: Improvement on EBITDA Margin: The improvement in EBITDA margin reflects the strength of our operating model and the maturity of execution capabilities. This quarter also marks a phase of scale consolidation for us, strengthening our delivery regime, deepening client relationships, and laying a solid foundation for the next phase of expansion. With a robust pipeline and sustained demand for AI-led engineering and digital solutions, we are well positioned to continue this momentum while maintaining a balanced approach to growth and profitability. In our efforts to build long-term strategic partnerships with few technology domain experts and those who can provide us a platform for expanding our services and geographies where we serve, we have entered into MOU with Tech Mahindra and Aetosky, which adds to the long list of strategic and OEM partnerships. We are working towards building more such strategic partnership in the coming times. We are also taking steps to set up our foothold in the markets of Dubai and Saudi Arabia
Page 6 of 22 : Inorganic Acquistion : The due diligence process is also almost over. There has been a slight delay from the compliance side because we are evaluating all the aspects. So I think we are not able to give you the answer right now. Hopefully, by quarter end – quarter 4 end, you will have a little more clarity about the acquisition targets, which we have been pursuing.
To understand the business model of the company:
Old business model : Data + Tech + Infra ( GIS + Govt Infra)
Existing business model: GIS + Infra + Mobility + ER&D
Future: GIS + Infra + Mobility + ER&D + Emerging Tech platform includes IoT, Products & Platform, manufacturing solutions & Data (support to existing business and help to margin expansion)
Understand via a simple example: Smart utility IoT suite: Monitor water, Powerlines, Pipelines & / or city assets in real time ——————Leakage detection, asset health & preventive maintenance————via ———————-edge sensors, SCADA links, cloud dashboard, etc.
The base problem of B2B and B2G business is Cash Flow and the working capital cycle:
Based on CFS of the FY2025: Cash Generating from Operations 14.46 Cr, (Increase in unbilled revenue Rs 70.71 Cr.) while EBITDA is 89.70 Cr ————-Good business model but poor CFO/EBITDA.
CFS.pdf (60.7 KB)
The Management spoke on the last concall about the improvement in the WC cycle, but still 160 days.
Good business, but we can also NOT IGNORE these two matrices before taking the final call on investment. Anyway, waiting for Q4 results and management commentary
management had told that the most collection and billing will be in Q4 on the last concall.
the UBR till last qtr was 250 cr it has jumped to 300 + cr rather than going down.
let me know if the interpretation that UBR would have come down is correct or not
The same pattern bogged down some good companies in Water recycling and Waste management space, which are primarily B2G companies too. The management, and of course the investors, have nothing much to do about UBR/receivables than hope.
The problem increases with the scope of work goes from macro to micro level: Union → State → Cities and municipalities.
Ceinsys still remains a good company with sound business thesis and dependable management IMO. The question is, how long will investors wait for all-round stable numbers?
Disclosure: Invested and still holding 
Jal Jeevan Mission funds were blocked for more than a year. Consequently, receivables ballooned for a lot of companies. Now, with the audit of the Mission completed & the Mission back on track, hopefully this issue gets mitigated in the coming quarters. To add to this, promoters are a BJP linked family. With two of the promoters being the wife and son of a reputable MLA. So I have less concern over the receivables ballooning beyond a point.
Any update about Q4Fy26 concall and current Order book? It seem’s like they haven’t released investor presentation also?
Hi All - Surprised that has been no conference call or investor presentation. This looks worrying.
Concall is arranged on 3rd June at noon. Please check stock exchange notification
Yea. I also ended up emailing the Company Secretary, but no revert. Hope they also upload the presentation.
7a90d540-74d9-4042-b0f5-034ead546025.pdf (1.0 MB)
~30 crore order. Mostly NVME drives supply. Am confused why ceinsys is supplying NVME drives. Can any explain?
NVMe is an enterprise storage technology used in servers, edge systems, and high-performance computing because it is much faster and lower-latency than older SATA-based storage.
What Ceinsys is likely doing
Ceinsys is acting as a systems/integration or supply partner in a larger tech deployment, not as a drive manufacturer. The same order package also includes AI-powered monitoring and geospatial imagery services, which fits a bundled enterprise solution. This is normal in hardware-led solution deals, where one company sources and delivers components from a wider network.
Most important point the Tsecond Customer for this deal is Defense tech company About Us | Tsecond which may open doors for other such work too in future.
I like T second as a client but what I don’t understand is out of 30 order , 27 cr is for supply of hardware. CEINSYS has nothing to with manufacturing of these type of hardware . This will be a low margin order as they will procure and than sell. But why they are going in this direction ? is it just to inflate the order book and boost the stock price.
Post no. 216 has clear explanation .They are not just buying and selling the hardware .System integration is a totally different beast .
