Campus Activewear - betting on the India Consumption Theme

Campus Activewear Ltd - The company manufactures and distributes a variety of footwear like Running Shoes, Walking Shoes, Casual Shoes, Floaters, Slippers, Flip Flops, and Sandals, available in multiple colors, and styles, and at affordable prices. !7% India Market share as of 2021. Mens Centric brand 88% sales came from men’s segment. 4.6% from women and 8% from kids

Management

Hari Krishan Agarwal Chairman and Managing Director

Nikhil Aggarwal Whole-Time Director and CEO

Archana Maini is the Company Secretary

Raman Chawla – CFO

Employees – 784

Competitors - Bata (Power), Liberty (Force10), Relaxo (Sparx) and Mirza International (Red Tape Athleisure and Bond Street)

Big Picture Narrative - Per Capita Income increase, need for different types of shoes based on occasions, fashion statement, the rise of women in the workforce, kids segment, people going for more casual shoes in day-to-day wear

Total SKU - 6388

Campus Average Selling Price 600/700

Metro Brands - 1200/1400

Raw Material - raw materials such as leather, rexine (registered trademark of an artificial leather-like fabric), inter-lining, PVC sole, rubber, net, cotton, etc. China and other Asia Pacific countries are the largest exporters of raw materials required for producing footwear. RM cost 55% as of 2021

Inventory - We usually keep two to four months of inventory of raw materials at our facilities. The ability to store raw materials at our facilities enables us to withstand disruptions in supply as well as volatility in the price of raw material. We plan our inventory levels based on existing inventory levels, inbound delivery timelines and expected order pipelines.57% of assets as of 2021

Receivable at 34 % of total assets as of 2021, they give 90 days credit to distributors.

Campus has more than 85% raw material sourcing from the domestic market, which provides it with significant supply chain efficiencies while maintaining quality standards through 100% in-house assembly

Being in Latest Fashion trends is extremely important for this Business-
We have adopted a fashion-forward approach to new product launches to ensure that we have a faster design conceptualization to product commercialization cycle. We are typically able to launch our products within 120 to 180 days from the date of product conceptualization…

New launches take 120-180 days from design to Retail. It allows them to do two season launches in a year. 48-member design team. Designing for a season begins nearly six to eight months prior to the upcoming season. The sketches are sent to heads of departments and key decision makers. Thereafter, our prototype team makes prototypes of our products using samples in various colors.

Debt/Equity 0.43% . Total debt 174 cr as of 2021

Profitability -

Campus cant convert its higher EBITDA Margin to PAT Margins as compared to Relaxo.

ROCE -

India Market Size & Growth Prospects (Athleisure) - India is mirroring the global trend with respect to sports and athleisure and outpaced the global growth rate of the segment. It is estimated to be ₹ 19,500 crore. It is estimated to be ₹ 19,500 crore (USD 2.6 billion) in FY 2020 and is expected to grow at a rate of approximately 16% by FY 2025, almost doubling in size.

Domestic Footwear Market - The domestic footwear retail market in India estimated at ₹ 72,000 crore in FY 2020 is projected to grow at a CAGR of ~8% to reach ₹ 1,05,000 crore by FY 2025. Footwear industry in India has grown at a CAGR of ~9% over FY2015 to FY20

Manufacturing Capabilities - Total 29 million pairs capacity. Haridwar Facility is responsible for manufacturing our uppers, Ganaur Facility is responsible for manufacturing 37.50% of the soles. Dehradun Facility, Baddi Facility and Campus AI Baddi Facility are responsible for assembling all of our products
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Outsourced Job Work - Our cost of materials consumed includes job work charges for the manufacturing process, it was 10.62% of the total revenue

Capacity Utilization -

Dehradun & Baddi are at an average CU of 75%, Im not sure if in the footwear industry factories operate at 100% CU, If that isn’t the case then they will need Capex soon. IF they don’t have enough internal accruals, they might have to raise debt or do QIP. The reason I am looking at these two units only because they do 100% assembly in house. A significant portion of Upper and Sole manufacturing is outsourced

Product Pricing -We sell footwear across the entry-level (MRP at or below ₹1,049), semi-premium (MRP between ₹1,050 and ₹ 1,499), and premium (MRP at or above ₹ 1,500).
Revenue contribution from the Premium category 41% in 2021. Average Selling Price 615 as on 2021. (ASP of 615 indicates a Mass market appeal)

Pricing Power - We do not have any specific retail policy and standards for “sales made through distributors”. We do not control the price at which the ultimate retailer sells our products.

IT Capabilities - These tools include systems for enterprise resource planning (ERP), distribution management system (DMS), field force management, point-of-sales (PoS), e-commerce order management (OMS) and a retailers’ engagement application

GST Tax Mismatch -

Campus Distribution Details -
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Trade Distribution – 75% - Volume sold – 81 %
Direct to Consumer Online- 21% - Volume sold – 16%
Direct to Consumer offline – 3.50 % - Volume sold – 2.5%
Internal Sales Force of 152 employees - they use Sales Force software for Distribution Management System
They also have a Retailers Engagement App

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We have over 425 distributors as on December 31, 2021. We are dependent on our trade distribution channel for the majority of our revenues from operations. We have 57 COCOs and 28 Franchisees as on the end of the period of December 31, 2021

Geography Concentration - 68% of the revenue comes from North India
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Business Seasonality - Historically, revenues in the third and fourth quarters have exceeded those in the first and second quarters. The mix of product sales varies considerably from time to time as a result of, among other things, changes in the season

Refund & Exchange - Trade distribution We have a return product policy for all our trade distribution customers. Our trade distribution customers can only return products in case there are any manufacturing defects. In such instance, the distributor will collect all defective products within a period of six to eight months from the date of purchase of goods and inform our sales representative. The distributor will thereafter cut / destroy all defective pairs in front of our sales representative to prevent any misuse. We will thereafter issue a credit note in the name of the distributor

Usually, apparel, shoes etc manufacturers have some amount of provisions for returns in the Balance Sheet, need to find out what is the annual provision percentage to sales. 2022 AR not out yet

Advertising spending is at 6/6.5% to total sales.

Risks -

They have to continuously come up with new designs and keep up with the latest trend in casual shoes. Nike, Adidas, Puma Under Armour have new design launches every season with a variety of color and different soles. The designs have to also appeal to the younger crowd there is a lot riding on the design team.

A good portion of Uppers & Soles manufacturing is outsourced, maintaining the quality and converting the new design ideas from desk to the store will be a key deliverable for them. Maybe in the long run they do everything in-house to mitigate the outsourcing risk. It’s a double-edged sword in my opinion. Page Industries maintained the quality by manufacturing in-house however there are players in that segment who outsource everything.

One can be a victim of their own success, looking at the growth and margins, other parties may enter the business, probably established players who have deep pockets and decades of industry experience. It’s a highly competitive industry.

Reebok & Fila are two examples that lost market share and reebok has been revamped now. Fila, I am not sure, but I haven’t seen many products in the market. Good brands with quality products however lost their charm, it can happen to any brand that is not up to date with the market trends.

i have a tracking position, and will be adding as the story develops. at the onset, i like the company and there is good growth in revenue and profits. it fits well in the consumption theme. the asp of “615” caters to a huge section of the population so long term growth story looks good. They will have to keep coming up with new designs to be relevant in the market. Adidas, Puma, Nike are constantly launching new designs. its a very competitive market. however at a lower price range, probably CAMPUS has an edge, time will tell. Waiting for their 2022 Annual Report

Sources - DRHP & Concalls

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Campus Activewear Q4FY23 earning call
Ambition to be India’s leading sports and athleisure footwear brand. FY23 sales of 1450 crore - 800 crore from retail, 650 cr D2C with market share.
Sold 23.5 million pairs with Average selling price (ASP) of 632.
Working capital 134 days in FY23 up from 98 FY22, management link this partially to higher front loading of inventory due to new BIS inventory norms expected july 2023.
K-shape recovery observed during post pandemic period between Tier-1 cities and Tier-2/3 urban/rural areas. This has exposed a portfolio gap company has on lower price points, plans to introduce more products in 699-999 range.
Company has 425-430 distributers now, which is a very decent base to get good growth over the next one or two years. Strategy is not to increase distributer number but to increase wallet share and sales at every touch point.
55% revenue from north and central india, 20% west, 15% from east and 10% from south.
Historically maintained 36-38% gross margin and 18-20% EBITDA margin, expect to maintain/improve this over long term.
Current capacity sufficient to service growth expectation for next 12-18 months. No Capex plans for FY24.
BIS norms coming this year will boost shift from unorganized to organized due to quality standardization across value chain.

Overall Company has suffered a bit on growth and margin front last year due to sluggish recovery in Tier-2/3 & rural markets, premium market remain strong. Company is taking measures to adress this with portfolio additions like challenger.

Disclaimer- Not invested, monitoring. This is not a stock recommendation. Please do your due diligence before investing.

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Valuation comparison between Campus and peer footwear companies

Company Sales EBITDA margin Mareket Cap/ Sales PE
Bata 3452 23% 5.86 62.7
Relaxo 2783 12% 8 144
Metro 2127 32% 12.2 71.7
Campus 1484 17% 6.55 83
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campus promtor holding is high and with aspirational buying on the rise, i feel it has better potential

Campus’ stock price has been correcting further from the last few days. Till mid July, it was consolidating in a range of 310-330 and not it seems to have shifted around the 300 mark.

While these short term stock price gyrations should not hinder our conviction on a business, what are the possible reasons it has been absolutely lackluster over the past few months? The ones I can think of are the following:

  1. The rural economy recovery has been slow and the Tier II/ III towns are facing the brunt of inflation. These 2 should form a major chunk of Campus’ revenue
  2. RM as % of revenue has kept higher, hence compressing EPS and making the PE look optically higher
  3. The Company maybe facing competition from the unorganised sector as they appear to emerge on the scene post the covid-19 turmoil, especially in the sub 800 range
  4. People moving towards premium brands and hence the Tier I/ II towns not contributing as much (IMHO).

What really like to know the views of experienced and keen trackers of stock market, especially with respect to if this story is still intact or was it just bull run wave.

Thank you,
A.

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Campus Q1FY24 Earning updates

Weak quarter from campus. Revenue of 353.8Cr, 4.8% growth YoY.
Trade distribution down by 5.5%, D2C online up by 10% and D2C offline up by 82%.
EBITDA and PAT margin stable at 18.8% and 8.9% respectively.
Witnessing green shoots of recovery in eastern UP and parts Bihar, Expect full blown recovery by festive season.

Comments from Earning call:
Nikhil Agarwal emphasizes their brand’s unique selling point (USP) of introducing the latest global fashion trends and designs to India promptly and affordably. They maintain a vast portfolio of 600 designs, including 300 new ones annually, highlighting their commitment to offering fashionable and technologically advanced products ahead of competitors.

Improved gross margin is attributed to favorable changes in channel and product mix, along with sourcing efficiencies. The sustainability of this margin improvement is linked to the company’s consistent growth trajectory, and there is potential to improve it further.

growth in D2C offline driven by franchise stores. Out of 255 stores 90-95 are company run stores rest franchise. Strategy to have 70:30 split in favor of franchise.

Nikhil anticipates a positive impact on domestic growth through the implementation of the BIS regulations starting January 2024. By focusing on premiumization within the price range of Rs. 1,000 to 3,000, the company aims to capitalize on the BIS-driven reduction of imports from China, Vietnam, and Indonesia, ensuring not only improved margins but also a rise in average selling prices (ASP) within the optimal price range.

The company’s historical growth trajectory, with a 3-year and 5-year CAGR of around 24% to 27%, has been maintained even in recent times. While some shifts in margin profiles have occurred, their priority in a slowdown scenario remains focused on pursuing growth aggressively while maintaining a respectable margin profile, as margins can be regained in stable macro conditions. Gaining market share and shelf space is emphasized as a crucial strategy, considering its lasting impact compared to recoverable margins, making slowdown periods seen as opportunities to excel.

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Chief Operating Officer of Campus, Piyush resigns.

Aur Bhaiyya trading bhi acchi kar lete the.
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Any inputs how important was the man for the company…designated as Senior personal ?

I do not see a red flag with the COO selling a few thousand shares at INR 100 a share profit! If I put myself in his shoes, even I won’t mind some cash at a profit. Maybe he needed it for some personal use or something.

But yes, a COO resigning can have some impact if he was the show runner (doubt he was here in Campus) or there is some bad news (likely maybe?).

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After piyush singh resignation… scanned annual report and notice that many SMP resigned… management or promoters need to address this…seems some kind of tense situation. in ambition box employees are happy about salary but culturewise the company is rated poor.

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Continuous selling & insider trades is not encouraging

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Q2 Results FY23-24
Very bad results.
Lesson learned: don’t ignore red flags (Insider Trading & COO resignation)

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For me one more lesson- Believing in narratives and stories instead of numbers!

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Analyst Meet Call Recording

management rescheduled concall to 8:00-9:00am pre market opening. Looks like it helped to sustain stock price. yet to go through concall.

I’m not an expert in understanding business but what I have understood from the concall is

  • This was the worst quarter, now all next quarters will be better than this.
  • Management is not bullish for the next quarters but we might see normal growth.
  • Some impact was due to the festive season being shifted to the next quarter.
  • Feel free to add if anything is missing or incorrect.

Something does not feel right as other footwear companies posted some positive results with some percentage of decline and not ~99% decline or ~0 profit.

Currently, the stock is at a PE of 76.7 & PB of 13.3, I don’t think it deserves this valuation for negligible growth.

Disc: Exited my entire holding on Friday, might take re-entry if it crashes a lot.

Note: This is not a buy/sell recommendation.

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Hi Ahmed.
I agrees with your decision to sell. But what made you buy in the first place?
Even at current price, it’s trading 70x 2023 profit.

Hi @praveen_potnuru
I started my investment journey in 2022 and I don’t do trading. I’m still learning basic stuff. I use campus shoes and the quality is good. All peers are trading nearly at the same valuation and Campus was trading at 52 weeks low. I thought 70 PE was normal for this industry. This PE might be normal only for earning growing stock but Campus is not growing clearly.

My average price was ~300. I thought that this quarter would be a good one, almost all other footwear company’s quarter is really good if compared to Campus. The moment I came to know about the red flags (COO resignation and Insider Trading), I was already down by 6-7%. I regret not selling at that point. In short, it was a mistake and learning for me.

I still believe in the company but something is not right at the moment in the company as numbers don’t lie. There is a high possibility that the next quarters won’t be good enough and we might see a lot of further correction in this stock so I simply exited with ~20% loss to save remaining capital :sweat_smile:

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Hi! I’m a beginner as well.
Just wanted to understand your thought process, if you have conviction in the company, why not downward average after it gets correction instead of selling at a loss (if it’s still under the max % allocation of the portfolio). Previously you mentioned, that the next quarters will be likely better and then the stock is likely to bounce at that point.
Another question, how long had you been holding the stock for.

Disc: Not invested