Good results From BSE Q2 NP Rs.345 Cr, H1 NP Rs.610Cr.
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Does anyone has a good understanding the recent FnO changes introduced by SEBI? Also how do we track the impact of these changes on the volumes of BSE/NSE?
If someone can help in identifying the volume changes and the website URLs for tracking, that will be great. Also how these should be used to intepret or co-relate to PnL of the exchanges, will be a good learning.
Disclaimer: I have tried earlier but have struggled in the past, maybe missing some important links.
The date of applicability of change is 20th Nov. We have to wait to see how it plays out.
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Still early days, but good to see some data on change in option volumes
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Q3 Update:
Derivatives: The average daily turnover hovered around 9000 Crore during the quarter irrespective of Bankex literally sidelined due to SEBI move to curb so called excessive trading in derivatives market. Additionally, the single stock derivatives has not really made any traction yet. The coming months will give a better picture on how Sensex as a product compete with Nifty in the derivatives market - early trends are certainly encouraging. While the average daily turnover has reduced, the open interest and the daily premium turnover has significantly grown after the new rules came into existence. Considering the reduction in charges etc during the quarter – I expect the revenue from the segment to largely be in line with what was reported during the previous quarter.
Star Mutual Fund: This is one segment where we don’t see any slow down. The number of orders processed are approximately 10% higher as compared to Q2 with the new orders remaining above 50 crore for each of the months- the revenue from the segment should be growing at similar pace.
Star Mutial Fund Data
Equity segment: The numbers from equity segment has been disappointing - BSE can keep pointing out multiple factors for this fall, but this is one area that the management needs to really work on - the oldest exchange in India should be having at least 10% market share.
The revenue from the segment should be lower by 20% or more as compared to last quarter reflecting the fall in turnover.
IPO Market: IPO market remained robust during the quarter with about 36 companies hitting the IPO market during the quarter. The revenue from the segment should largly in line with what was reported during the last quarter.
Overall, the numbers are expected to be in line with what was reported during Q2.
AJ
Remain invested - made partial exit during first week of December. Remain my largest holding.
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That mean there will not be QoQ growth?
Here is my attempt to put month wise Option Derivatives market share of BSE and NSE
Post the change in weekly expiry rules in Nov , from the initial data it seems BSE has take significant market share from NSE in Dec 24 and Jan 25
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Disc: Invested
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Good data points, thank you. Would it be possible to share links to the source of data for BSE & NSE turnover?
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Link for BSE Volume : https://www.bseindia.com/markets/keystatics/Keystat_turnover_deri.aspx
Link for NSE volume : https://www.nseindia.com/market-data/business-growth-fo-segment
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This is really helpful.
What do you think moves the revenue number more the premium turnover or total turnover?
My understanding is that premium turnover should be having direct correlation with revenues.
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Revenue number is proportional to premium turnover ; BSE charges Rs 3250 per 1 cr of premium turnover as of now for Sensex options
What I am not able to understand why is there so much disparity in premium turnover Market share and Total turnover market share vs NSE ? Can anyone pl explain this
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Many instituitions are now adding coverage on BSE. e.g. links added below.
Couple of thing that stands out and will get confirmed over the coming months/quarter is outlined in the reports:
- increased contract sizes shall not have a significant impact on BSE’s index option premium volumes as its average number of contracts traded/order is five
- “higher contract sizes to result in lower clearing charges as clearing charges are calculated on the number of contracts cleared, which is likely to reduce. Hence, clearing charges shall drop from Rs 2,013 per Rs 1 crore of premium turnover in FY24 to Rs 734 by FY26E, contributing to EBITDA margin expansion over FY24–27,” added Nuvama : so almost 2/3rd drop in clearing charges.
Nuvama has a much aggressive price target compared to Goldman.
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One of the assumptions i do not agree with nuvama’s report is that they have assumed only 14.9% of premium TO market share whereas in Dec itself was 16% and Jan is trending at 20%
| Month | BSE | BSE | BSE | BSE | BSE | BSE | NSE | NSE | NSE | NSE | NSE | NSE | BSE | BSE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | Total Contracts | Total Turnover | Premium Turnover | A/D Contract | A/D Total TO | A/D Premium TO | Total Contracts | Total Turnover | Premium Turnover | A/D Contract | A/D Total TO | A/D Premium TO | Trading Days | Market Share ( Total Turnover ) | Market Share ( Premium Turnover ) |
| Jan-25 | 1,26,69,94,015 | 15,19,69,023.77 | 1,45,288 | 9,74,61,078 | 1,16,89,925 | 11,176 | 1,55,91,91,104 | 24,71,19,992 | 5,78,840 | 11,99,37,777 | 1,90,09,230 | 44,526 | 13 | 38% | 20% |
| Dec-24 | 2,24,21,49,929 | 18,12,20,915 | 1,88,010 | 10,67,69,044 | 86,29,567 | 8,953 | 6,44,33,35,785 | 42,57,54,313 | 9,60,116 | 30,68,25,514 | 2,02,74,015 | 45,720 | 21 | 30% | 16% |
| Nov-24 | 2,49,01,73,665 | 20,30,65,650 | 1,56,168 | 13,10,61,772 | 1,06,87,666 | 8,219 | 9,59,57,44,290 | 62,44,85,163 | 10,31,502 | 50,50,39,173 | 3,28,67,640 | 54,290 | 19 | 25% | 13% |
| Oct-24 | 3,19,85,22,760 | 26,42,62,479 | 1,98,844 | 14,53,87,398 | 1,20,11,931 | 9,038 | 12,73,70,58,672 | 86,01,58,771 | 13,67,433 | 57,89,57,212 | 3,90,98,126 | 62,156 | 22 | 24% | 13% |
| Sep-24 | 3,54,46,40,191 | 30,14,79,904 | 2,00,575 | 16,87,92,390 | 1,43,56,186 | 9,551 | 11,83,33,60,241 | 80,97,48,227 | 11,36,673 | 56,34,93,345 | 3,85,59,439 | 54,127 | 21 | 27% | 15% |
| Aug-24 | 3,16,92,01,397 | 26,03,09,228 | 1,60,011 | 15,09,14,352 | 1,23,95,678 | 7,620 | 11,78,61,11,607 | 77,68,08,850 | 12,18,678 | 56,12,43,410 | 3,69,90,898 | 58,032 | 21 | 25% | 12% |
| Jul-24 | 3,05,03,73,448 | 25,42,61,877 | 1,64,435 | 13,86,53,339 | 1,15,57,358 | 7,474 | 11,24,00,01,254 | 82,14,87,305 | 13,12,196 | 51,09,09,148 | 3,73,40,332 | 59,645 | 22 | 24% | 11% |
| Jun-24 | 2,58,88,33,408 | 20,63,75,711 | 1,60,615 | 13,62,54,390 | 1,08,61,880 | 8,453 | 10,13,37,79,313 | 72,26,15,028 | 14,86,308 | 53,33,56,806 | 3,80,32,370 | 78,227 | 19 | 22% | 10% |
| May-24 | 2,89,49,27,177 | 21,97,42,194 | 1,58,861 | 13,15,87,599 | 99,88,282 | 7,221 | 10,64,64,95,090 | 71,53,56,509 | 12,84,788 | 48,39,31,595 | 3,25,16,205 | 58,399 | 22 | 23% | 11% |
| Apr-24 | 2,22,43,42,823 | 16,94,98,635 | 1,17,387 | 11,12,17,141 | 84,74,932 | 5,869 | 8,33,77,35,024 | 70,72,37,364 | 10,84,602 | 41,68,86,751 | 3,53,61,868 | 54,230 | 20 | 19% | 10% |
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