Bluejet healthcare - Boutique CDMO

Could you clarify this if you can?
The tax liability in the profit and loss account is broken down as
Current tax liability 177
Deferred 8

Wouldn’t the classification in the profit and loss account for 114crore be for deferred tax liability

I think it depends on when the September quarter tax liability is payable as the tax for September is roughly 117
If September tax liability was paid before the date of September balance sheet than the entire liability in the balance is accrued for goodwill tax

However if the September taxes are not paid, then there probably is still a shortage of provisions

I do understand management guidelines that the demand from taxes are provisioned but I can’t get the figures to tie up

I can understand management response

while the tax notice is determined as a less than 50% chance of materialising, even if it does materialise, it’s a one off cost. If stock prices are a sum of all future earnings, I think a one off cost is usually ignored by investors

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There seems to be full blown panic following this announcement but this could actually be an opportunity. Have to wait for the details.

https://x.com/CNBCTV18Live/status/1908009393461014987

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China has restricted supply for gadolinium ( contrast used in MRI). Any foreseeable impact on this?
Not invested but tracking

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Esperion at Needham conference has talked in detail about the company’s business. Company seems to be very confident about growth in US, Europe and Japan.
The company also mentioned that 50 % of its manufacturing is in US. And its API is being sourced from India and France. When asked about tariffs, the company mentioned that they already have a US supplier for API whom they could pivot to incase of a severe tariff problem. I have no idea what the capacity is for the US supplier. However, there is still 50 % capacity outside US. The company seems to very positive about Germany, UK and Japan sales. This may help bluejet incase of a bad tariff scenario.
https://ca.investing.com/news/transcripts/esperion-at-needham-conference-strategic-growth-and-expansion-93CH-3943681

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With a 125 % tariff on China and 90 day pause on reciprocal tariffs, company’s share of saccharin exports should go back to where it was. This also would normally mean the tariffs on drugs will also be postponed atleast for a while

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https://x.com/itsTarH/status/1909896260267733224
Recent Interview of Esperion.

https://in.investing.com/news/transcripts/esperion-at-needham-conference-strategic-growth-and-expansion-93CH-4761808

Is it just for US market that they have 50% API sourcing from US itself or this is for whole US + Europe market?

As European market is double size of US market. Daichi serves this market. API sourcing is possibly from either Fareva or Neuland. Any one who can help on this side of supply chain?

Positive outlook on Drug with new combinations and newer geographies like Japan, Canada, Australia. Any assessment on how big can be the Japan market and supplier details ?

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Novartis’s inclisiran (leqvio) seems to be a direct competition of Nexlizet and Nexletol.

A quick study of the comparison between these three drugs using AI and advantages/ disadvantages are given above.

inclisiran (leqvio) clearly seems to have an edge when it comes to dosage frequency and effectiveness, at least as per AI.

@phreakv6 your views on this?

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You could have also asked AI what it costs.

PCSK9 inhibitors are generally very expensive and so are either not covered by insurance or are put behind utilisation management (you need to try, statins/BA/EZE etc before you get access to PCSK9). The AHA guidelines as well support BA/EZE which is why PCSK9 volumes are very, very low. UK NHS data says only ~3000 prescriptions are written for Inclisiran (Leqvio) per month vs 45k for BA/BA+EZE. Same is likely the case in US as well. It is not a legit competition for BA.

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Thanks a lot. Yes I did check the price and it was exorbitant but I thought that with lower dosage and probable insurance coverage, it could fall.

Thanks again for the clarification.

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Export Data for the quarter
https://x.com/JoshiEien/status/1914259365550571755

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Disclosure - I have sold shares of Blue Jet in the last 30 days, this is not a buy/sell recommendation, I am not a SEBI registered analyst. Please do your own due diligence.

The share price of Esperion (innovator of BA) was falling, and I was trying to figure out why. It looks like there is a competitive drug developed by New Amsterdam Pharma by the name of Obicetrapib. Some of the Phase 3 trials for this drug are finished and results are very good - 35-40% lowering of LDL-C as monotherapy and 50% LDL-C lowering in combination with ezetimibe.

NewAmsterdam Corporate Deck

One can track various trials here - Learn About Obicetrapib From NewAmsterdam Pharma

It is an oral drug with dosage of 10mg vs 180mg for BA. Following slide captures the delta -

They ideally should have included BA + Ezetimibe combination as well.

The two interesting points on above slide are -

a) MACE benefits - MACE stands for Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events. It includes things like cardiovascular death, heart attacks etc. MACE benefit of 21% in layman language means that the drug lowers risk of CVD death/heart attack by 21%.

b) The second one is Lp(a) lowering. Lp(a) is another lipoprotein similar to LDC (bad cholesterol). Lp(a) was not a target of this drug but it ended up lowering it by 45-50% and that also has additional MACE benefits. It is an evolving target in developing cardiovascular drugs.

Above slide contains one more interesting statement -

Obicetrapib looks like a superior drug to me and frankly it looks like PCSK9 market killer, forget BA.

Now following video has some discussion on NDA filings and safety etc.

24th Annual Needham Virtual Healthcare Conference

Key Points

  • H2 CY25 - Europe Filing - Launch a year later
  • H1 CY26 - US Filing - Launch a year later
  • Have taken care of all issues with previous CETP drugs, drug is super safe.
  • Lp(a) lowering and diabetic reduction are differentiating features. If patient is pre-diabetic, Obi has an edge as it reduces diabetes risk. If patient has high CVD risk, Lp(a) lowering provides additional MACE benefits - it means Obi wins.
  • Company has 825mn$+ cash, 500mn$ raised in Dec.
  • Fully geared and well-funded for the launch and on track with plans.

This kind of led me to believe that even through near term looks very promising for Blue Jet, 2-3 year out picture is quite uncertain. There is terminal value risk and starting valuations are high for my liking. Even if one assumes 400cr PAT in FY26, the stock is trading at 30x.

There are few additional points which are specific to Blue Jet -

  • There are two suppliers of BA API - Neuland and Fareva. Blue Jet supplies intermediate to Fareva. 18-24 months out, BA growth might slow down, and new capacity of Neuland is expected to come online somewhere in H2 FY26.

  • In this year, Dai-ichi is supposed to get its own manufacturing supply chain up. Current price assumes that Blue Jet will get a share of Dai-Ichi as well (for context, Dai-Ichi sales are significantly larger than Esperion sales as of date). But probability of Dai-Ichi choosing Neuland to be primary partner with larger share is non-zero, at least in my mind.

  • @phreakv6 and @Chins has done a lot of work in converting current supplies to number of patients. It looks like current capacity and quarterly supply can cater to 3x the patients at current run rate (something like - current run rate is 6.71L patients between Esperion + Dai-Ichi, current capacity is 18L). Although BA is growing significantly, but characterizing current phase as inventory build up is not entirely incorrect.

  • The promoter owns 86% publicly and need to bring down the stake to 75%. Either there will be market selling or there will be follow on fund raising. My expectation is that once prospective investors learn about Obi, they will try to negotiate down the QIP price.

  • The company does not have a pipeline of CDMO molecules as of today. If company is intent on expanding CDMO business and goes for acquisition - P&L/Balance sheet can take hit for 4-6 quarters (improving margin of acquired company, additional depreciation/amortization due to goodwill and other things, hiring of scientific talent leading to higher manpower costs) etc.

I may be completely wrong, and company can prove me wrong and grow exponentially to justify starting valuations. Risk-Reward from my vantage point does not point to fat pitch.

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Just my two cents,

Asked GPT for their comparable price range per patient,

Tldr; the price of obi quite higher than the BA, so the replacement of the drug shouldn’t happen in the pace which you might expect

Generated by AI

Obicetrapib is an exciting LDL-C lowering agent—at 10 mg daily, it achieves ~45–51% LDL-C reduction, outperforming both Bempedoic Acid (BA) 180 mg (~15–18%) and BA + Ezetimibe (~36–38%). However, per-patient economics remain a major obstacle to rapid adoption.

Key takeaway: While Obicetrapib may be clinically superior, its cost per 1% LDL-C reduction is not yet competitive. For large-scale use—particularly in value-sensitive systems like the NHS (UK) or public insurers in the EU—this matters.

Even if commercial pricing improves post-approval, formulary access, HTA assessments, and real-world cardiovascular outcome data will all influence its uptake.

Conclusion: Obicetrapib has clear therapeutic potential, but BA and BA+Ezetimibe will likely retain a strong role in lipid management until Obicetrapib demonstrates either a cost-effective pricing model or major long-term outcome benefits.

Another factor to consider is prescription behavior and clinical inertia, which are often shaped by existing guidelines and real-world usage.

Bempedoic Acid (BA) has already been incorporated into treatment frameworks like those by NICE in the UK, where it’s recommended for patients who are statin-intolerant or require additional LDL-C reduction. Its uptake is not just based on trial data, but on practical success in real-world settings, especially within public health systems.

Unless Obicetrapib gains similar guideline endorsement, demonstrates long-term cardiovascular benefits, and clears HTA hurdles, it’s unlikely to displace BA quickly—regardless of superior LDL-C reduction. Physicians tend to stick with what’s already proven, reimbursed, and familiar.

So while Obicetrapib is promising, prescription patterns won’t shift overnight without structural and clinical reinforcement.

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The LDL-lowering drug landscape is advancing rapidly.
Multiple vaccines are in the clinical phase.

https://ir.vaxxinity.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vaxxinitys-cholesterol-vaccine-candidate-successfully-lowers-ldl // Verve 102 | Verve Therapeutics

However, lengthy launch timelines, marketing challenges for smaller firms, and delays in insurance reimbursement will provide Bempedoic Acid sufficient period to scale up.

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Believe Neuland is into API and Bluejet is into intermediate ( high margin business), Lengthy timelines and till launch as we all know anything can happen which can further skew timelines. Coming to bluejet, if they indeed report 400 cr. PAT along with expected visibility of bumper next few qtrs., optionality is they are also working on additional products, possibility of re-rating remains. Too far out is the thesis if one has plans to hold it for much longer timeframe, bluejet may fit a PEAD strategy.

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I have never seen something from near (export data), far (patent cliff/competition), mid (secondary supplier, inventory buildup) - everything discounted on a hourly/daily/weekly basis by the stock price (some stuff like gadolinium exports control by China even discounted twice or thrice), to the net effect that the price is now down 25% from the top made after great Q3 earnings.

As an aside, I am seeing something similar in Ceinsys as well where the JJM news has been discounted three times already in its price - even though JJM itself probably makes < 20% of its order book (the river linking, dpms, cidco, and other technology solutions and geospatial stuff make up the rest) and the company has had stellar cash flows and even confirmed good 9mo cash flows.

This is perhaps what a perfectly efficient market looks like - extremely volatile to the point of being absolutely inefficient.

All these opportunities and risks are true. The question is where does BJ deserve to trade given everything we know? Will it trade at 600 levels when it posts a annual PAT of 400 Cr which seems very much like a possibility at this point that everyone seems to agree on?

Let me post some counters

  1. Though Neuland capacity is coming online in 3-6 months time, it is unclear how the demand will shift between the two and how quickly Neuland can scale. Also, we are ignoring all the new markets that are opening when we talk about inventory buildup (Japan, Canada, Australia, Israel, S.E Asia)
  2. Obi will take time to scale up. To put it in perspective, BA was approved in Feb '20 and it is yet to reach 1M patients after 5 years. Now BA is picking up steam and is set to scale up based on the momentum it has built in the last 9 months. By the time Obi gets to 1M patients, it is likely to be 2030 - it is not easy to get physicians to prescribe a new drug without AHA guidelines, insurance coverage, MRs and direct marketing to consumer - all of which takes time and money (And I am assuming cost will be comparable, considering its a small molecule)
  3. ESPR is planning to get the triple combo approved soon which will be a real competitor to Obi since it can achieve a near 50% LDL-C reduction. This could be a positive surprise as well and can even extend the patent to 2036.

As of now though, market wants to believe only the worst can happen here. I am not certain if that’s the only outcome.

Disc: Invested

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Efficacy of obicetrapib looks better compared to bempoedic acid. But as you mentioned they will submit for approval with EMEA in H2 FY25. The approval may take some time. Esperion after its approval some year back is still working with Insurances to get preauthorization in US.

Esperion is trying to maximise its reach now.


As per Esperion, long term safety of Obicetrapib is not established yet. Being a competitor, no idea how much value can be attached to those statements in investor presentation.
However, the company plans to launch a triple combo in 2027 with 60 to 70 % LDL - C reduction as mentioned by @phreakv6

There is not much excitement in New Amsterdam share prices either as it is down almost 28 % YTD.

The next 2 years will be very critical for Esperion. I would track the prescription growth closely for Esperion. I agree that the new molecule is a threat in the long term, But by then, Bempoedic acid should have grown strongly and the triple combo should negate that risk to a certain extend as well.
Discl: Invested and biased
Q4 2024 Earnings Presentation esperion.pdf (775.6 KB)

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Two things to also track in obi is the pricing and insurance coverage. These will be key drivers for penetrating the markets.

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Also, it is important to remember that physiologically, there are often quite unexpected outcomes or a small range of side effects which limit the use of the drug in larger population which becomes evident only during larger trials or initial cohorts after approval. There’s been a previous group of CETP inhibitors like Torcetrapib, Dalcetrapib which could not achieve large scale use either due to some unexpected mortality in trials, or reduced efficacy in clinical end points. There’s a reason why in most of our medicine, we are using the same drugs since ages - simply because cause-effect is not as evident initially and trials are only a starting point.

Markets swing wildly in just 1-2 quarters making bluejet sometimes a sure shot multibagger and sometimes a definite dud while the truth will always be somewhere in between.

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Esperion Recent Concall Summary

  • First quarter 2025 script growth increased 2% sequentially compared with fourth quarter 2024, reflecting a flat lipid lowering market that was impacted by seasonal headwinds due to changes in Medicare Part D and higher out-of-pocket costs as patients need to meet their annual insurance deductibles. Prescription growth of only 2% QoQ vs revenue growth of 10% QoQ. YoY growth strong at 40%

  • Early Q2 trends are encouraging with prescription volume currently tracking approximately 8% higher than Q1 with expectations for continued growth, driven by increased prescribing behavior and reduced co-pays.

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Thanks Ajay…


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