You are right. I shouldn’t call them competitors!! Both should do well together.
And growth in core brand and new brands has been an issue. QSRs too are facing the same!!!
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Stock is now trading at it’s all time lows and trading below 1.5 x Sales. Does current valuation gives comfort to start accumulating? I do see good traction in their premium chains - Toscano and Salt in Bangalore at least. Do we expect core business turn-around and sales growth to come in from next year?
My concern with the business lies in its fickle customer base. BBQ restaurants are not everyday dining options. With regular restaurants, people expect consistency, predictability, and convenience. As long as they can keep the experience and taste consistent they build a loyal, repeatable customer base. In contrast, BBQ is often reserved for special occasions, where customers seek novelty and are in the mood to experiment. As a result, frequent visits diminish BBQ’s “special” factor, leading customers to explore other new and trendy spots. They will have plenty of choices, there is always a new trendy restaurant (even in Tier-2,3 cities). And they face virtually no switching cost in doing so. This problem hits BBQ harder because of its format. Regular restaurants have a mix of regular and occasional diners. As long as there is a healthy balance between both you are safe. BBQ’s all-you-can-eat format makes it very difficult to make it a regular eat-out spot. Making it extra hard to build a sticky repeat customer base. As you are a restaurant you have a limited set of new people you can acquire to keep up with this high churn. This churn triggers a vicious cycle—declining appeal reduces specialness, driving even more customers away.
This makes me skeptical about BBQ’s long-term growth prospects. Would love to hear counterarguments to this perspective!
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Additional point which I can put is - (may be relevant more in tie-2 and below cities)
I see too steep competition for BBQ. (price wise)
I live in Surat and I see many restaurants selling unlimited menu lunch/dinner at 200-400 Rs. Premium would be 400 Rs which includes bbq grill as well.
I gone there few times - I see very high traffic there. Sometimes on festives/weekends I have to wait for 30 min to 1 hr in good place.
So, I see price point seems the pain.
Somebody who wants to spend 800-900 Rs per pax will rather go in good/premium alha cart restaurant for better quality + service + environment.
I am not sure If i am right or not - would love to hear some opinion on this.
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I don’t believe people stick to just one dining option—some prefer à la carte, others go for buffets, and many switch between both based on mood and occasion. Not only do they change what they eat, but also where they eat. When it comes to non-vegetarian buffets, Barbeque Nation stands out as the best option in my view—both for its food quality and customer experience (though I might be projecting my personal preference here).
Surat is a unique food market. The unorganized sector thrives here—I’ve seen long lines at small shops and even a woman selling Mendu Vada on a bicycle drawing huge crowds. The people here are true food lovers, and the food itself is exceptional. Some even travel to Surat just to eat a specific dish from their favorite shop—something you don’t see as often elsewhere.
Barbeque Nation’s appeal lies in its variety, unlimited food, and excellent customer experience. Customer ratings are mostly positive and, more importantly, genuine. The entire dining-out sector is struggling right now, but when the middle class regains spending power, I believe things will improve. Compared to competitors, Barbeque Nation is relatively cheaper.
That said, it’s hard to stay optimistic after the stock’s sharp correction.
But my real question is—₹400 for unlimited non-veg?
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I have been to multiple local BBQ type restaurants in tier 1 and 2 cities and never felt “Oh, this one is better than barbeque nation”. I am a vegetarian, so Absolute Barbeque’s fans please keep that in mind 
The same old menu becomes very boring and that’s what limits the frequency of my visits at least.
My last visit to barbeque nation was a delight because of special Rajasthani menu. I feel they don’t promote such special menu days enough (we happened to go there without knowing about this special menu).
Ala carte restaurants easily cost 400 to 600 Rs per head if you want to have some cold drinks and desserts too. Everytime I feel it’s a total rip off compared to barbeque nation.
Also I think the people who will want to celebrate an occasion will definitely prefer barbeque nation than ala carte restaurants. And such number of people should only continue to rise with rising income levels.
And anyway they continue to increase the number of ala carte premium restaurants, so there’s that.
Invested recently and hence biased. Earlier had started to invest from 750 levels but could get out fully with some profit in a pull back at around 620 (bought more heavily at 500 odd). Had exited due to continuous losses (6 out of 7 quarters!) but now the price looks attractive.
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^ Intresting analysis
But my real question is—₹400 for unlimited non-veg?
I think - I missed to mention this point. i.e. whatever info./opinion I shared is for veg. option - as I am pure veg.
It seems that non-veg. option at Barbqeue might be more value.
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Just my 2 cents here. Correct if wrong or If I am missing something…
This chain started in 2006. All I could see is they rarely make profit in a given year. Even though everybody claims of good experience, taste etc etc how do these all matter if at the end of the day , all the service that you give does not translate to the profits? It would be at the max labelled charity . right? 
Also it’s been 18 years since they started so definitely one cant say that we need to be patient for the business to show its potential. This also speaks volumes about management’s ability to run a profitable venture.
They have been expanding aggressively and the count has reached to 220 + restaurants but the point is - if you throw more and more cash on a business that hardly makes profits then all you are going to get is magnified loss in proportion to the expansion. What is the point of all expansion when you can’t generate good enough returns?
Also I feel they are trying to do too many things at once. This sounds desperate tactics and certainly nobody can expect to be good at every new thing they start. Considering that debt is already sky high, if something fails this is only going to add to pain.
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How much debt they are carrying ?
One should look at cash flows not P&L profits for businesses with heavy depreciation like hospitals, QSRs. They are funding new stores from internal cashflows without taking debt. P&L profits come late in such business models where upfront depreciation is heavy. At this stage, what matters is SSSG for them to turnaround.
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It has very high lease liabilities. If you’re counting lease liabilities as debt, it’s important to understand the distinction. Lease liabilities come from lease agreements, not borrowed money. They’re recorded under Ind AS 116(accounting standard), but they’re different from loans because they’re tied to using an asset, not direct financing. While they do represent financial obligations, they often have more flexibility than traditional debt. Treating them the same can misrepresent a company’s actual leverage. So, although you may call it high financial liability, it is not a Loan.
Out of full transparency, my own confidence in this stock is shaking with this downfall. In my opinion, - current consumer climate, and high depreciation of newly opened stores are responsible for these numbers. I still believe, it will change.
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YES Thats what I meant…They are having almost nil debt and Its Negative working capital cycle business…
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Just sit outside as one doesn’t know extent of the fall. Fundamentally nothing more bad has been happening with the business and the theme is just out of favour due to poor SSSGs which is due to several reasons. Better to wait for some trigger and probably miss 20-30% move upwards than jumping right now in stage 4 fall with substantial position.
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In q2 they were having around -2 SSSG which is actually better than other QSR and valuations looks juicy but it have been juicy for a while now…and q3 seasonally is a good quarter and the management has said the same in concall maybe sip can be a way in these type of stock.
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