Bajaj Finance Limited

Dear investors,

what are your thoughts on the below guidance by the company …

**

our long-term guidance in general is between 7 to 8 million customers in a year in the last two quarters we fundamentally hit a 4 million kind of number so we are well in track to normalizing new customer acquisition in the last two quarters to pre-COVID levels

**

Present Franchise = 4.86 cr

Estimated growth per year = .7 to .8 cr

Considering lower guidance new customer in next 10 years = .7 * 10 → 7 cr
would be Total Franchise @2031 is 4.86 cr + 7cr = 11.86 cr

Aprrox bankable population 100 cr (140-40cr children+ reiterated person ) in India

so company is expecting to have 12-15% of the present population as its franchise

  1. would this be possible
  2. if not what would be franchise target in 10 years in your estimates …

Regards,
Rama

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Mention of Bajaj Finance and how they are leveraging Data for lending applications. This is from someone who works for BFSI IT and the talk is part of the IIT Madras industry-academia collaboration.

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At outset let me disclose I have in the past gained a lot due to my exposure to Bajaj Finance through Maharashtra Scooters. However of late I am beginning to doubt the analytics prowess that they claim to possess. I generally like to use the products of companies I invest in so transferred my home loan to Bajaj Housing Finance. It was a Home Loan cum Overdraft facility which allows me to pay them whenever I have excess cash and withdraw money when I need it. I have almost paid the entire loan amount but have the OD account open so that just in case the market throws up opportunities like it did in March 2020 I have access to low cost funds (at 8%). Now I have access to funds (say this amount is 7X) at 8% however Bajaj Finance keeps calling me at least 3 times a day trying to sell a personal loan for X amount at 11% interest. Now why would a person having access to an amount of 7X at 8% will require a personal loan for X at 11%. Is this what their analytics is telling them? Waste so much time and energy on a person who is certain not to take a personal loan from them

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Hi…read this with so much interest. I have a similar story and that too through Maharashtra Scooters. So I tried to get an EMI card a year ago. Now it is stuck because they want a fees of 375 or something which my office person has refused ! It is amazing that their system cannot check my credit score or standing and are willing to let go of a reasonable customer for 400 bucks ! I wonder about their AI too…

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One explanation can be due to possible outsourced cross selling and the call centre agency not having access to the analytical data.

I’ve seen this happen with Citibank. They used to call me selling credit card while I already had one from them.

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I was promised 5 different kinds of discount coupons and a smart card within 30 days of my sanction of loan on Sony TV, which never came after following up for six months.

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It is all part of the process. I have built cross sell models - so will try to share from that experience. The way the model will work is, it will try to find if some one had let’s say OD which other product are they most likely to buy. Now, not you but there would be a segment of population which actually buys a personal loan. Analytics is not going to Preempt that X will go for it Y won’t, it will give the segment of customer who are more likely to buy.

Within a segment level if we target everyone, the overall impact would, i.e. finding those who will buy will be much higher ( e.g. out of 100 people, 10 will buy i.e. 10% hit rate) vs overall PF level ( e.g. out of 1000, 20 will buy 2% hit rate), So you are getting 50% of the total customer who will buy your product via focusing on 10% of total population. Thats huge cost/time savings. These are made up numbers and I am not sure what is it for BajajFin. But this is how it works.

This is how cross sell / Upsell usually work.

As for calling 3 times in a day that’s more a sale’s person and bad customer service by Bajaj Fin and not fault of the model.

Hope this helps.

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The point is a segment with significant undrawn housing loan OD balances is unlikely to go for a personal loan. If that is not a segment that is used as an input to the model then it is not a good model. If the model indeed shows customers with significant undrawn housing loan OD balances are taking more personal loans then I am missing something. Anyway output from model should be used to improve sales efficiency sales time is limited and wasting time on a segment with a miniscule or zero conversion rate is not the best use of the time of sales people.

there is no connection between the two. personal loans are offered via DSAs who go by credit/payment history, etc. I get multiple calls daily because I have bought consumer durables via Bajaj Finance. I have fixed deposits with the company apart from my share holding.

we should focus on sustainability of growth, which seems to be on track despite the pandemic.

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Very interesting thoughts by Gautam Chuggani of Bernstein.

Paraphrasing his thoughts on Bajaj Finance.

From 16.52 onwards- “They are the largest BNPL player in the offline space. There are not so big in the online space. It’s like a bespoke credit product - when you walk into a store, you want to buy a washing machine, they’ll offer you a 6 month or a 12 month loan. They wouldn’t be as technologically integrated as some of these new age BNPL players are. So for them to move from that model, now that the consumer behaviour is shifting from offline to online, people will also buy the washing machine online and someone will come to install it. So in this offline to online shift, how do you capture those cases? Banks don’t have that issue because banks have credit cards which can be used online. Bajaj not being a bank has to do co branded credit card partnerships with banks. So this whole shift that Bajaj is doing is that now I’ll be a significant player in the online space also. So let me take my users, let me take my merchants and put them on a platform ecosystem with payments and e-store and all those things and give my users an opportunity to spend on my market place- via my users which I have acquired and going to Amazon and Flipkart and buying their stuff. So Bajaj wants to retain their customers, sell to their customers and observe their customers data. We have seen this in other emerging markets like Brazil and Russia”

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With due respect to this analyst, Bernstein(and this guy in particular) have been bearish on Bajaj finance; during the pandemic last year, infact they gave a target of 1000 to 1200( pardon me, do not remember exact figure).
Now, my counter argument against the statement made above:

  1. Why can’t Bajaj finance find ways to move from offline channels to online? why will it be different in online? They have been doing online EMI payments on various e-commerce platforms.
  2. What is the overall market pie of online channels for selling consumer durables? barring metro cities, do people buy long term white goods from amazon or flikart? I doubt so. Even in metros, I see the likes of Vijay sales, Kohinoor in Mumbai or Pai,Girias etc in Bangalore or Croma,Reliance digital India wide are quite competitive in matching price with online portals. If I find a similar price or a bit higher in an offline store, I would anyway buy an item from there, because they have a physical presence- a sense of belonging.
  3. Bajaj finance has been way ahead in adopting change and thats why it commands a super premium: health spend cards is one of the examples.
  4. Who knows they get a banking license very soon and put to rest this entire argument :slight_smile:
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Charting The Recovery Roadmap | Sanjiv Bajaj, Bajaj Finserv | Reboot India - YouTube

As a Bajaj Finance / Bajaj Finserv shareholder, one must watch this Video…specially from 18:00 min onwards.

Mr Bajaj clearly lays out his digital plans going fwd. To be honest, they do sound superb.

Roll out of these digital initiatives and the customer response to these should settle this debate.

Disc : invested in Bajaj Finserv, Biased

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I think Mr Chuggani has presented compelling reason for Bajaj Finance undertaking their digital transformation. While we can all agree that Bajaj is the leader in offline store consumer financing, the Company seems to be building something big comprising of an eco-system of apps including

  1. E-Store
  2. Wallet (Bajaj Pay) and related payments infrastructure.
  3. Insurance marketplace (For Bajaj Finance- this would be distribution)
  4. Investments marketplace (For Bajaj Finance- this would be distribution)
  5. Bajaj Financial Securities - Mobile Trading App

Relevant Q4 Concall transcript:

“The Bajaj Pay for consumers which is our payment infrastructure with BBPS services gone live”

"The three marketplace we have which is our e-store, insurance and investment market place are in advance stages of development at this point in time. The first phase of estore has gone live in February, we are now 25,000 SKUs on it for consumer electronics business, 40,000 retailers have been onboarded and the final capabilities of e-store will go live between July and August 2021. The insurance and investments marketplace will go live between July and August as well. The onboarding app of Bajaj Financial Security has gone live and the trading app will go live on 31st of May. 12 adjunct partner app are live and overall, 28 apps will go live as the premium financial services goes live. Quickly on customer experience I had outlined that we are clear that if we have to be a moment of truth company we will need significant transformation in customer engagement and experience, we think engagement comes from service so there it is just to give you texture 33% of the overall app ecosystem is dedicated to service just at a frame level so clearly we think it will lead to what is really the core reason why customers will engage more and will do more business"

  1. Estore - Bajaj Finserve Markets has already gone live and can be viewed at - https://www.bajajfinservmarkets.in/

I was surprised to see that sellers were offering certain products at rates cheaper than Amazon. For eg:

  1. Wallet has been there for some time now but one added benefit available to Bajaj versus competitors like Google pay, Amazon pay etc is that since it is has an NBFC license, it can allow customers to draw into wallet from EMI card

  1. and 4) Cross selling online through Bajaj Finserv markets app - One can already see Products of most AMCs (I haven’t checked insurance since one has to enter personal details)

  2. Trading App - I dont have an account with Bajaj but would love to hear feedback from anyone who has started using it.

Another very relevant concall transcript of Mr Rajeev Jain with an intriguing example in Q4 call was-

"How you fundamentally see phase I app as integral phase I app, merchant I app are integral to what we call the omni channel infrastructure is integral to the overall design it is important for and that is why we are saying an omni channel framework where customer will be able to transition in a frictionless manner between offline and online and vice versa so I think that is something for you to remember now let us just take an example for a moment so that it becomes clear point to sale you would have an e-store you are on e-store at home you look for a retailer in your vicinity you identified product you do not buy it you go to let us say add to cart and you left it we realize that appliance is a high involvement
category we will fundamentally flow that lead to the store that you have chosen and the person either to the retailer based on our arrangement or to the point of fair person that we have who based on a point when do they speak to you and assess to you and help you probably at the store and do the transaction that is the one example of omni channel the other example of omni channel we may pre-approve you. You have downloaded the premium financial services you do add to cart but are not able to go ahead because you need some assistance and we need something from you that leads based on a allocation methodology will flow to a particular person in the field who would assess you and help
you go through the transaction. We are very clear that on the other hand it may be an insurance product or an investment product that you maybe want to buy in three clicks it maybe a broking account that you will be able to if you are a KRA customer. As KRA customer you will be able to open in three clicks so it will defer product-by-product and nature of the product and the nature of the transaction so the ride when you look at it would be as it emerges between August and September as the experience there is a customer that is really where the imagination would become more clearer so we are all excited about launching this."

On customer acquisition through the new ecosystem:

"We are not building as a new customer acquisition at a design level as I said in two panels before we continue to originate customers at point of sale that does not mean that this will not originate new customers avail we see EMI card origination has now become a reasonably large standalone engine digital engine for us we are now originating anywhere between 60,000 to 40,000, 45,000 paid customers and 60,000 to 70,000 approved customers on a month-on-month basis, we think as this ecosystem will become large it is very much possible that number will significantly expand but leave that aside our focus is on originated the point of sale and acquire and cross sell is really been our strategy and that is really what this panel and platform is intended to serve. We have enough customers we are very clear that we will be a sometime in the near future we will be 100 million customers company given the distribution and the product portfolio that we bring to the table and the geographic presence that we bring to the table.

We will continue to originate customers, our origination frame is not changing, it (new eco system) may bring additional customers at no cost… We don’t need more customers, we need greater engagement and we need greater share of the wallet

In my opinion, with the roll out of the new ecosystem of apps, the aim seems to be to not just get higher share in existing business (B2B lending / EMI card based lending), but to get higher margin - lower risk business such as Trading, Distribution.

So far, Bajaj Finance have been one of the best in execution - be it in on the spot customer acquisition, popularising BNPL product for the mass affluent, cross sell of other lending based products and industry leading recovery metrics. If the new digital ecosystem platform implementation are similarly executed in line with the promise, the overall business and image of the company itself can be transformed from a lending business doing cross sell into an integrated consumer products company offering a host of products like online stores, wallets, broking etc.

Disc- Invested from lower levels and biased

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96850464-5db8-4e88-94e6-62675a63c601.pdf (395.1 KB)
Update by bajaj finance in view of second wave of covid

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Size comparison of Bajaj Finance vs other big financial institutions , question : is this valuation justified?

image

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Investor PPT:

June Quarterly Result:

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A simple Equation
BFAL Virtually =
[ Indiamart (BFAL has 1L merchants) + Paytm + Policy Bazaar + Manapurram + Angel + Affle + Aavas] + [ 50Mn Full KYC customer Franchise] + [0-5yrs +ALM] + [ 56% Skin in the Game] + [ Deposits ~ 21% of Borrowings (77% retail - 69% tenure > 3 Yrs): CASA] + [Fee Revenues ~ 1.6% AUM] + [ Still 1.6% of Indian Credit with 3000 locations presence + 1L PoS presence] + [Honest/Integral/Risk Averse/Agile Mgmt.] - [Short Term Hiccups at Structural level] = !Valuations but = Value that could be created over next 5-10 years.

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https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/ce3a93dd-7dac-4859-9464-e9b1adc9d1f6.pdf

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