Ashiana Housing - Banking on Tier II and III towns!

Very good set of nos from Ashiana, with presales growing to 485 cr. due to successful launch of Ashiana Amarah project (sold 243 cr. of inventory at launch). Delivery schedule should keep improving in the next few years leading to better reported numbers going forward. Concall notes below.

FY23Q3 concall

  • FY23 Launches: Ashiana Advik (senior living in Bhiwadi), Ashiana Amarah (Gurgaon; sold out at launch), last phase of Ashiana Umang (Jaipur), last phase of Ashiana Dwarka (Jodhpur)
  • FY23 launches: Had planned 5 greenfield project. 3 were done so far and 2 will be launched in Q4FY23 (Ekansh in Jaipur, Prakriti in Jamshedpur; 7 lakh sq.ft launches). Plan to have 1mn sq.ft launch in Q4 (7 lakh greenfield + 3 lakh phase extensions)
  • FY24 launches: Planned 5 greenfield launches (2 in Jaipur, 2 senior living in Chennai, 1 senior living in Pune) (10-15 lakh sq.ft) + 10-15 lakh sq.ft in existing projects (total around 3mn planned launches in FY24)
  • 20-25 lakh sq. ft construction target in FY24
  • Have received RERA approval for Phase II in Ashiana Amarah, plan to launch it soon
  • Some signs of correction are seen in land prices. Plotting market in Gurgaon has slowed down
  • Higher realizations are due to Ashiana Amarah project
  • Ashiana Advik was launched at 7-8% higher prices compared to Nirmay (last senior living project)
  • Deliveries Q4: Ashiana Sehar (have received OC). In Ashiana Aditya, have applied for OC and might slip if they don’t get OC in time
  • Gross profit margin: In older projects, it’s at 27-28%. 4% selling costs in good projects (like in Jamshedpur). Generally selling costs varies between 2-8%. Margins should improve in 2-3 years once current projects start getting delivered
  • Senior living: Contributes 10-20% of sales volume (hoping to get 150 cr. area booked in FY23). Want to grow it to 300-400 cr. over next 2-3 years. These projects have 3-5% higher gross margins and similar selling costs as existing projects
  • FY24 deliveries: Blended gross margins will be around 27% and reported ROEs will be high single digit
  • In Ashiana Prakriti project (Jamshedpur), share of revenue is same as 73.61% (error in presentation)

Disclosure: Invested (position size here, no transactions in last-30 days)