Dabbled in markets for some time in 2021 when I started earning, but then exited since I found the valuations to be very high. At that time I had no fundamental knowledge of macroeconomics or stocks, and was just doing Technical analysis. Also I got absorbed by work and personal stuff.
Started investing again in August 2023, and since then there has been a heavy churn in my portfolio due to the below reasons:
Kept learning more and more and my view changed.
Middle east conflict
12 Sep and 25-27 Oct Crash which instilled fear in me
Some early mistakes and lessons
Exited winners early, and held on to losers. New Rule is you sell the first day when conviction changes, or keep on holding it.
Do not be afraid to re-enter a stock at a higher price once you booked profit earlier. Ex: PFC, Coal India, NTPC
Have proper tools at your disposal to analyze stocks, news or events.
Enter if fundamentals or market perception changes, do not worry if the stock price has already moved up a lot in the last week. It does not matter. Same policy for exit.
Do not overdiversify. 2 stocks per sector should be good enough.
New Portfolio
Long term themes are: EV, Chemicals, IT, Renewable Energy, EMS
Medium Term themes: Real Estate, Infrastructure, AgroChemicals
All the rest of the stocks are for short term, and I will exit when I find new opportunity (regardless of booking profit or loss)
Company
Thesis
Aarti Industries
- Chemicals Sector in India is a long term Play. - Earnings have bottomed out and Q2 FY24 was great - Company has been a consistent compounder since 2014 - Huge capex underway in the next 5 years
KEI & APAR
- Proxy to Railways and Power, also Data centers - EPS growth matching the growth in share price - Ok Valuations as compared to other stocks in the theme
HBL Power
- Renewable Energy theme for storage of batteries - Kavach scheme, hence a railway proxy - Q2FY24 profit 3x YoY, matching share price
PI Industries
- Consistent compounder over the last decade - Agrochemicals sector rising in India - Government will keep supporting this sector
Kaynes Tech
- Sector tailwinds. - Avalon looks good in terms of valution though, might switch there if export order start coming in
Shakti Pumps
- Solar Pumps and KUSUM Scheme
SDBL
- Good growth of brand in last 5 years - Huge planned capex - Promoter increasing their stakes since 2 years
Sonata Software
- Huge revenue forecast given by management - Best Generative AI Play in India, I am also invested in MSFT for the same reason - This could be a more of an emotional investment
CDSL
- They hold stocks in demat form. Private companies req to digitalize their shares. - Stock market growth in India
Tata Elxsi
- EV design Play. - KPIT Tech looks better as a company and I might rotate my PF to it. - However, Elxi looks undervalued
Anuh Pharma
- Rising after some consolidation. Huge earnings growth. - SME Pharma Play, check out thread on VP about what it does
Praj Industries
- One of the best companies to play the Ethanol blending theme - Builds Ethanol manufacturing Plant
Sona BLW Precision
- Another EV Play - OEM Strike is over. Expected new orders and production. - US exports should open up
Weightages
Average weight of 5-10% in each company.
Next Plans
I am looking to book profits in short term holdings, and add that money to long term themes which I have pointed out.
As you can see from the no. of shares, my PF size is quite small. Not planning to add any more money into equities this year since it has crossed my risk appetite in case of a major correction.
Researching some good names in Pharma, especially Biosimilars. However, I will try to time that entry once the market agrees.
I will also observe how the above stocks perform during short term market corrections. As an example, I have found Gravitas, KPIT Tech, KEI, Apar to keep performing regardless of market. These are the kind of names I want to associate myself with.
@Ashar_Mann It is my view that you should not display the number of shares to anyone. This gives others a peek into your finances. That is not necessary for anyone to know. Your weight is sufficient for conviction.
As said by a very senior and very respected member of the forum, donāt make members click and see a sheet to know about things, if you are seeking views from them. You can post your rationale instead of a sheet.
You have given the context of your beginning and the current philosophy, for someone who can post this, posting the rationale is also the same.
I guess I was not clear. If we want members to provide with their views/opinions about our stocks, then we should post our rationale in the thread, so that they know about our rationale and reply. We should not make them click a link or a sheet to see our rationale.
Something like this.
Or even this.
This is a trivial matter, so I have nothing to add.
This is your PF, and as such, except for the rationale which helps members know about your views, so that they can give their views, anti thesis I donāt think is necessary per se, unless, of course, if you have found reasons for things going wrong, which can be presented along with your thesis.
This thread may very well work like a journal to your journey, and if you update your activity as per your views, it helps you and might help others too. Work of members who are not active for years is as fresh and relevant as todayās news.
Removed:
Praveg: Did really well due to Lakshdweep movement. Booked profits
JWL: Insignificant returns, mostly due to company being in ASM.
Praj: Company is clearly in downtrend, will revisit after 1-2Qtr of earnings.
SDBL: Booked for small gains.
Replacements:
Sula Vineyards: Replacement to SDBL
EIH: Replacement to Praveg
Titagarh: Replacement to JWL.
New additions [b/w Dec-January]
Ganesh Housing & Anant Raj for Real estate
Aarti Industries & PCBL: Chemicals
Concord Biotech: Pharma
Adani Ports: Cargo handling, airports.
IREDA: Renewable Energy, Finance & PSU (Check the VP thread)
Long term SIP started in few safe stocks like: L&T, VBL, Narayana Hrudalaya
Hi, once the stock corrects to P/E b/w 60-65, my returns expectation from that point would be the same CAGR at which they grow their earnings.
Note that stock can correct both my decreasing price, or staying flat and increasing earnings.
I have high churn in my portfolio (Separate core & Momentum). Based on Sectoral tailwinds, I rotate sectors, and I also switch between stocks of the same type based on Corp governance issue, or Expected earnings.
Ex: I switched from Som Distelleries to Sula Vineyards since there was short term downtrend due to uncertainity of IT raid.
Hence I am difficulty calculating my Portfolio returns, performance as compared to Nifty, CAGR etc. Also I have two brokers separate, for momentum + Core PF, that makes even more difficult to get feedback how I am doing in markets.
I plan to just take the āRealized Profitsā & āUnrealized profitsā separately and divide it by the Average Capital I kept in my brokerage account over a tax year? This will give me two data points on an yearly basis.
For the first year:
Average capital: 10 Lakhs
Realized Annual Rate of Return: (1 Lakh / 10 Lakhs) * 100% = 10%
Unrealized Annual Rate of Return: (2 Lakhs / 10 Lakhs) * 100% = 20%
For the second year:
Average capital: 15 Lakhs
Realized Annual Rate of Return: (2 Lakhs / 15 Lakhs) * 100% ā 13.33%
Unrealized Annual Rate of Return: (2 Lakhs / 15 Lakhs) * 100% ā 13.33%
Calculate Total return percentage
(Realized Profit + Unrealized Profit) / Average Capital
6L / ((10+15)/2) -> 48%
CAGR
CAGR = ((Final Value / Initial Value) ^ (1 / Number of Years)) - 1
(1 + 0.48) ^ (1 / 2) - 1 ā 22.47%.
You are not taking into account entry and exit of stocks. Just start capital and end capital.
XIRR is date wise and amount wise returns ,
In market , there are some ways to calculate XIRR, but most of them are suspicious or wrong.
Mprofit, it gives readymade XIRR , but below 50 lakhs capital , but we cant be sure, what exactly they are doing and whether its correct or wrong.
Valueresearch, same as Mprofit.
zerodha providing individual stocks xirr, and using that we could use weighted average of all stocks to arrive portfolio xirr, but there is a big flaw, they are providing xirr from 2017 onwards and once you sell a stock and if after some time again by that same stock, then their xirr is not as per latest entry, but from first time of purchase, so it gives distorted xirr.
@sahil_vi had provided one method assuming a string and variable and then using xirr function of excel, but zerodha provides only 1 year trade data, so only that specific year xirr can be calculated but not for total invested period.
Thanks for sharing the alternatives, I"ll look into Mprofit and Valueresearch, and see if they can take multiple brokers.
I am completely fine by not having entry and exit of stocks, as it does not matter for me. If a stock I was holding for 8 months, was flat, and finally in next 4 months it doubled, I am only concerned that in the tax year, I made double return on the stock. Is their a problem with this? Let us say I held a stock for 3 months in 1st year end, and 3 months in second year end. What use if getting 6M return for the stock and then booking profit? For my cash flow&profits (I consider myself as a company), only year needs to be taken into account. Is their a problem with this approach.
