Brief Introduction:
Dabbled in markets for some time in 2021 when I started earning, but then exited since I found the valuations to be very high. At that time I had no fundamental knowledge of macroeconomics or stocks, and was just doing Technical analysis. Also I got absorbed by work and personal stuff.
Started investing again in August 2023, and since then there has been a heavy churn in my portfolio due to the below reasons:
- Kept learning more and more and my view changed.
- Middle east conflict
- 12 Sep and 25-27 Oct Crash which instilled fear in me
Some early mistakes and lessons
- Exited winners early, and held on to losers. New Rule is you sell the first day when conviction changes, or keep on holding it.
- Do not be afraid to re-enter a stock at a higher price once you booked profit earlier. Ex: PFC, Coal India, NTPC
- Have proper tools at your disposal to analyze stocks, news or events.
- Enter if fundamentals or market perception changes, do not worry if the stock price has already moved up a lot in the last week. It does not matter. Same policy for exit.
- Do not overdiversify. 2 stocks per sector should be good enough.
New Portfolio
Long term themes are: EV, Chemicals, IT, Renewable Energy, EMS
Medium Term themes: Real Estate, Infrastructure, AgroChemicals
All the rest of the stocks are for short term, and I will exit when I find new opportunity (regardless of booking profit or loss)
| Company | Thesis |
|---|---|
| Aarti Industries | - Chemicals Sector in India is a long term Play. - Earnings have bottomed out and Q2 FY24 was great - Company has been a consistent compounder since 2014 - Huge capex underway in the next 5 years |
| KEI & APAR | - Proxy to Railways and Power, also Data centers - EPS growth matching the growth in share price - Ok Valuations as compared to other stocks in the theme |
| HBL Power | - Renewable Energy theme for storage of batteries - Kavach scheme, hence a railway proxy - Q2FY24 profit 3x YoY, matching share price |
| PI Industries | - Consistent compounder over the last decade - Agrochemicals sector rising in India - Government will keep supporting this sector |
| Kaynes Tech | - Sector tailwinds. - Avalon looks good in terms of valution though, might switch there if export order start coming in |
| Shakti Pumps | - Solar Pumps and KUSUM Scheme |
| SDBL | - Good growth of brand in last 5 years - Huge planned capex - Promoter increasing their stakes since 2 years |
| Sonata Software | - Huge revenue forecast given by management - Best Generative AI Play in India, I am also invested in MSFT for the same reason - This could be a more of an emotional investment |
| CDSL | - They hold stocks in demat form. Private companies req to digitalize their shares. - Stock market growth in India |
| Tata Elxsi | - EV design Play. - KPIT Tech looks better as a company and I might rotate my PF to it. - However, Elxi looks undervalued |
| Anuh Pharma | - Rising after some consolidation. Huge earnings growth. - SME Pharma Play, check out thread on VP about what it does |
| Praj Industries | - One of the best companies to play the Ethanol blending theme - Builds Ethanol manufacturing Plant |
| Sona BLW Precision | - Another EV Play - OEM Strike is over. Expected new orders and production. - US exports should open up |
Weightages
Average weight of 5-10% in each company.
Next Plans
- I am looking to book profits in short term holdings, and add that money to long term themes which I have pointed out.
- As you can see from the no. of shares, my PF size is quite small. Not planning to add any more money into equities this year since it has crossed my risk appetite in case of a major correction.
- Researching some good names in Pharma, especially Biosimilars. However, I will try to time that entry once the market agrees.
- I will also observe how the above stocks perform during short term market corrections. As an example, I have found Gravitas, KPIT Tech, KEI, Apar to keep performing regardless of market. These are the kind of names I want to associate myself with.