Don’t think you’re reading this correct, stake was still 59.76 as of 30 June 2021.
Majority selling only in this quarter (59.76% - 58.83% = 0.93% just in this QTD) - roughly 200 crores worth of shares. I think almost all personal needs of a person should be met with that kind of money, let’s see if he continues the selling.
Hey, yes, I am saying the same thing that major selling in this quarter which is 0.83 till now.
All previous quarters was 0.09.
So total → 0.92 = 0.83 [ this quarter ] + 0.09 [ previous quarters ]
The total sales in the last month or so has been appr 2% as per latest BSE filing. Thats a good Rs 400 Crs and not sure why so much money will be required in personal capacity.
Will be interesting to see the real reasons. I have written to the legal team, waiting for a response.
Hi Hamir
Did you recieve any response?, as sale in open market continues.
Thank you Hamir, did you hear anything?
The selling is continuing unabated and in large volumes which is why the stock has been under tremendous pressure. Just added up the value of the stocks sold from 27 Aug 2021 onwards, and comes out to be 4048518931 (~405 crores).
Not yet, have been following up and sent 2 reminders already but no response.
Why promoter would not sell?
They have around 75% holding and they may be diversifying their asset or they may be using cash for personal use.
As per peter lynch,promoter selling is not much significant for investor.
Dis…invested at lower level
I am not sure if the CS team in obligated to answer this. This is a matter pertaining to shareholder. This act of selling had nothing to do with the company and not in companys control.
Any shareholder can do anything with his shared without informing or taking approval of the company.
Subdued results. Some clues may emerge from conference call scheduled for tomorrow.
Gravity eventually affects the margin profile of businesses that have limited pricing power.
The long term EBITDA margin profile of Alkyl Amines has been in the range of 20-21%, the period starting Q3 FY20 up to Q1 FY22 has been abnormal on the margin front which has boosted PAT to very high levels. While visibility of volume growth should not be too much of a challenge, the valuation in such businesses is very susceptible to near term earnings trajectory. If the next two quarters EBITDA margin comes into closer to the long term range of 20-21%, at CMP the business trades at a forward multiple of > 60.
Watch the revenue growth between 2012-14 and then between 2015-17, it looks like a tale of two different businesses. While I have no idea (or no means to estimate) what the revenue growth and margin profile of the next few years will look like, it always makes sense to do projections at long term averages rather than short term trends. When one does not do this, investors end up buying the business when the market gives peak multiple at peak margins. Once the margin profile comes off the PAT and valuation multiple drops too.
Will be interesting to track how this story does over the next few years.
Disclosure: Not invested
Concall highlights Q2FY22
*Expanded capacity of Acetonitrile is coming on stream in few days. (From 12000MT to 30000MT)
*Expansion of Aliphatic Amines is underway with 350Cr Capex and expected to be completed by End 2022
*Acetonitrile demand is there and they have comfortable market share due to their process purity.
Acetic Acid is imported and none of their RMs are imported from China.
Cost increases will be passed on with 2 qtrs lag and difficult to pass 100%.
Exports are reduced in Q2 due to Logistics and shipping issues. Freight costs have up from Rs 2000 to Rs 8000.
(Balaji Amines concall: Due to volatile Freight trends , They are now quoting at FOB rates and Freights are billed as additonal.)
Volume compression happened due to some of their customers have supply disruption of their other RM imports from China consequent to which their production volume have come down affecting our volume. Now things are stabilised.
*EBIDTA margin of 28% is at peak level with soft RM prices. 22% is normalised EBIDTA margin.
My Impression: Very few institutions have participated (Ambit Capital, HDFC Securities, Elara Capital and few others) …Management was defensive through out the concall umlike the previous concalls. Things are expected to be better from FY 23 onwards.
ALKYLAMINE Stock | Alkyl Amines Chemicals Ltd Q2 FY22 Earnings Concall - YouTube
Discl: Pruned my holding from 15% few qtrs back to 1.5% during April and May 21 . Will like to add more once RM trends are beneficial and also due to management pedigree.
Decline of 53% quarter on quarter in profit with sharp increase in input cost. Poor set of results continuing.
289fb6c4-c0fc-458d-b8d5-518ae1f82697.pdf (2.7 MB)
Let’s see what happens to the Valuations now. Given the fear that I had back then of Peak Margins+Peak Valuations coming to forth post these results.
Tracking out of intellectual curiosity to improve the selling framework
Does anyone has access to the recent Ambit report on Alkyl Amines?
hi there…I was reading your previous posts. Your earlier predictions of High margin at high valuations…and margin reverting to long term average of 20% is coming true…But from valuation stand point, this stock had gone beyond PE of 65…and now around PE of 54…so how does it appear to you from the next 4-5 years standpoint? is there a scope of compounding at good rate?
Disc.: I am invested in this stock, hence biased.
Results are out - doesn’t look good. Was expecting margins to drop but they dropped 50 % !!! YOY 17.5% vs 34.9. Guess I am going to wait for another quarter before building a position in this.
You mean, if next quarter, margins increase, then you will start accumulating? But what if margins decline further or margins remain static but Valuations get costlier?
Yes, that’s the plan. This was one of the steepest declines in margins (even as compared to other major chemical players) so it is a worrying sign. If margins continue to fall next quarter as well, I don’t see how it can get more expensive. Add to it, its Feb results weren’t great either. Also, in my opinion, given the amazing rally in chemicals over the last 2 years, every bad result hereon will be punished severely and it will be all the more difficult to maintain rich valuations. Hence, my waiting game.
I am confused. You mean, if margins are deteriorating and performance is going down…and with that valuations are also going down…at that time you will buy into it? thats what you are saying? But i dont get the point in investing in such a company, where things are moving southwards, just because it has got cheaper. Kindly tell me that I m reading you wrong.
