Hi Hemant / Hitesh,
From technical point of view, do you think this will go around 450 anytime soon?
Thanks
there seems to be buying panic.
heard from my broker that there was auction early on at 2.30-2.45 pm at around 620-629 on both exchanges.
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Hi Hitesh bhai,
What exactly does that mean? Does it implies there is some upside left for Ajanta even at CMP, at least it short term?
I will have some money to buy stocks (salaried people as you see), but not thinking of adding Ajanta because of this crazy run-up (I actually donāt like stock moving so fast, and prefer adding it in the consolidating or slowing rising stage). I have no doubt about Ajanta breaking higher grounds in long term (beating sensex by a good margin say within 1-2 years).
By the way ābuying panicā is a new word for me :).
-Subash
there
** panic.heard **
exchanges.
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As usual, guys with full time job of forecasting future stock price have started giving higher and higher target for Ajanta. This time its Nirmal bang with a target price of 669, to be heat on summers of 69 (The last one is my addition 
).
today there was auction in bse and nse of total qty of 80K, some people action at bse passed at 648. I think today spurt was of action sale covering
Nirmal Bang guys project EPS of 46 for fy 13 and 55 for fy 14. I think these are conservative looking at the 9 months figures.
What looks aggresive is giving targets based on fy 14 projections.
subash, buying panic is when people go mad to buy a stock at any price just as there is selling panic when people are mad at selling at any price ā recent examples of selling panics in arshiya and HDIL.
Coming to buying for salaried guys, I think once this sharp spike ups are done with there will be calm and range bound moves and that is when one should think about buying.
Hitesh, Arshiya is NOT panic selling. In fact I am surprised that it stopped falling today.
I am sitting tight with this one, why sell when the long term outlook is intact, also nobody knows who is buying on the other side, is it just a retail frenzy or some institution, my initial takes are it is an institution. Ayush and Donaldās views invitedā¦
The logic behind selling a % of holding of Ajanta at CMP is 2-3 fold.
1). Agreed the long term outlook of Ajanta is intact. But in short run, the price has moved way fast than the earning. So my logic is that itās price shall fall to a lower price than CMP after some time. So why not sell part of it, and have the money to buy more quantity of the same in future.
2). The second part is severely low delivery % hovering around 6-8% for last couple of days. This implies the stock is artificially inflated by trader. The final result of such low delivery % is pretty much always fall in price by 10-20% from the top. (see recent cases of La Opala, Atul auto, and so on). So my reasoning is why not sell at higher price and buy back the same at a lower price.
3). If institutional buyers are buying than the delivery % should be 70-80%, not 7-8%.
Recent reading of Howard Mark letter reinforce that valuation is the key to investment. Awesome investment at very high valuation can give very bad return, but buying assets below their underlying value virtually assures success.
Someone bought 500k shares just before the quarterly numbers I suspect someone very big name probably RJ. My guess
You need to have high conviction to hold on to this at this price. Do you feel PE expansion to 15 for this smaller pharma player?? Low delivery %age is worrying.
Hi,
My reasons for not selling and sitting tight on this one are following:
1.Agreed that the rise in price is fast, but isnāt it always the case with midcaps with earnings surprise, stock prices run away, its the same on a disappointment.
2). As i am holding it from a long time why should i be worried about a 10-20% price fluctuation until and unless i have a valid reason to sell a stock.
3). Most important reason is, if i sell Ajanta, where will i put the money, i am not in the camp to sell it now and wait for declines, till the company is doing fine, i would like to take the pain of a 10-15-20% decline, as i know you guys will be waiting to buy it again :).
4). Lastly to my knowledge this pharma company has the best numbers in last few qtrs with respect to the whole pharma pack.
I am sitting tight with this one, why sell when the long term outlook is intact, also nobody knows who is buying on the other side, is it just a retail frenzy or some institution, my initial takes are it is an institution. Ayush and Donaldās views invitedā¦
Look at the brighter side of things. See how much you made in such a short span of time. Any other stock can match this kind of returns??
and nothing goes up for ever. This too shall correct in due course of time. Important thing is to have the conviction to buy if it falls sharply because when stocks correct there will always be reasons and doubts regarding one thing or other and that is when one needs the courage to buy.
Why feel cheated? enjoy the returns generated. take ur wife/kids for a celebratory dinner.:ā)
Sure hitesh bhai.
This one is for you.
Your conviction made me to look deeper and build my conviction to take a 10% position.
One can currently buy Cera between 370-400 with the money received from sale of Ajanta, and wait for some time when one can again re-enter Ajanta at lower levels. See my analysis on Cera elsewhere.
In addition to all these points, there must be some technical positives which makes you hold this one. Nice to hear fundamental aspects of a stock from the technical expert.
Since it was first discussed around Rs 200 levels ( split adjusted Rs 100 levels ) in January 2011, by Hitesh Bhai, we have had a 6.5 bagger in less than 3 years.
Amazing & awesome. Thanks to Hitesh bhai, for another of his great multibagger ideas.
Hitesh Bhaiā¦as usual awesome pick,
perhaps many a dreams would turn real for manyā¦ for your being around.
@ Manish Vacchani - loved your quote on Manish Madnani (one of our technical experts who keeps mostly silent, speaking up on Ajanta Fundamentals, could not hold himself back:). Makes me feel good about Ajanta.
@Manish Madnani - Thanks. I agree with most of your points. Some additional re-inforcements from my thinking.
The case not to SELL Ajanta( Infact I love to keep adding):
1). This is one of those rare stocks in ValuePickr Portfolio, where Business Value keeps racing ahead of Price. There are reasons for that. We got to recognise and respect that.
2). Who would not love such a stock. I do, and so do you all. But Operators love it even more;) for the reason cited above. Making money in Ajanta (in short quick bursts) is like easy money. Markets and knowing Operators will take advantage of that. And so are some of You. Good for that:)
3). Having said that, we have a duty toreconfirm the first premise every quarter(since there is so much infatuation) - that business fundamentals are sustainable, indeed on solid visibility, and try and establish the reasons for business outperformance. Should there be underperformance (read falling short of expectations), Operators may love to ride it the other way too?
4). Does that make Ajanta a riskier stock to own, versus another of similar fundamentals? In theory yes, its not a buy-and-forget stock, yes.
But in my books the Odds are ON for this stocks Business value (to keep) exceeding Price for the immediate next 2-3 years. Canāt say the same for current outlook (in equal measure that is), of most others stocks in ValuePickr Portfolio, not Astral, not Mayur? Mayurās case was like this in 2010 - Hitesh??
Give us some time. We will revert back on the sustainability of current improved fundamentals, and hopefully some reasons why?
-Donald
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-Donald
I am huge admirer of Manish Madnaniās technicals. He regularly posts his technical analysis on TED as Jaishrikrishna. Somehow he is less active on this forum - probably afraid of some technical skeptics over here(just joking - Subhash donāt take it seriously). Hope he participate more often for our benefits.