AGI Greenpac- on the cusp of growth?

I have been adding on dips.
Don’t know the status of HNG acquisition.
Portfolio is down by 15%
Looks like catching a falling Knife.
I don’t see this HNG drama settling soon.
Does anyone think there is a chance that it might not go in AGI’s favor?

According to my gut feeling, This also means that, If not AGI’s plan is not adopted mmediately, HNG will continue to die slow death.
The recent fire in HNG’s Nashik factory points towards that. Their furnaces are old and haven’t undergone maintenance.

This means AGI will gain market share either way.
I feel that, if unfortunately AGI’s plan is shelved then HNG may go for rebid or liquidation, which means several years of further delay.
Sad state of affairs.

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As investor, I am thinking is 770 good price for standalone business. Assuming HNG acquisition doesn’t go through, Even with current AGIs capacities if they are able to grow 15% with 15 to 18% margin, at current EV/EBIDTA below 10 i am wondering if it’s time to add more.

Btw, march is seasonally strong quarter, somebody shared on X that Soda Ash prices have come down.

Any thoughts here

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On a contrary note, there will be a capacity shortage if HNG is not acquired, will make prices higher, HNG running is crucial, after fire incidence, value offered looks high for HNG. SBI may have to take a higher cut if deals with ARC, my gut feel is this shake up is transient as it happens always in some form when a great business is available and investors want to accumulate. Have picked it at below 200 levels and will keep it as even if HNG is not acquired than more new capacities will be added.

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The banks had already approved the plan by AGI. So it’s fair to assume that all banks to whom HNG owe money are comfortable with the plan proposed by AGI and HNG has no option but to say yes I suppose.
Then Does anybody know what’s causing the delay in acquisition? is it the past litigations with HNG company or something else?

Disc: Invested

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The HNG acquisition by AGI is challenged by the Kenyan company - international sugar, who were number 2 in the bidding round of HNG. They quoted much less than AGI.
Their plea is on flimsy ground that CCI approval was given to AGI post facto.
They first filed their appeal in NCLT and subsequently in NCLAT - which they lost.

Now they have appealed in Supreme court in October.
SC is yet to hear.
My only point here is these delays on flimsy grounds defeat the very purpose of IBC wherein despite losing bids losers keep filing petitions to scuttle the process. In the end HNG, it’s employees and other stakeholders are big time losers.

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1.What is the typical realisations per tonne of glass manufacturing?
2.How many Bear Bottles can be carved out on a per tonne glass-Can the Revenue be increased if they manufacture >1Liter bottles or Bigger Bottles?

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Bro, did this tentative case hearing heard on 22 Jan?


check sci website with this diary entry. 2nd feb is the tentative date for now.

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Average realization is around INR 37000 to 38000 per tone. EBITDA is around INR 10000 per tone. For speciality glass average realization per tone is 1.7 to 1.8 times more than normal product segment. For AGI , Speciality Glass division capacity of 154 mtpd is running at 65% to 70% utilization.

For second question I dont have any straight forward answer. Smaller pacakge used in Cosmetic and Perfumery(C&P) has better realization. Speciality Glass also used in bevrage packaging also has better realization.

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Looks like this SC case is not tilted in favour of AGI . And many be market is skeptical about HNG acquisition plan.

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sci case status

The basic tenet of IBC is to minimize the haircut of creditors. Once COC has approved the plan there should be lightening speed in the implementation of the plan to save the bankrupt company and its stakeholders.
On broad basis, it appears that the CCI approval condition for a bankrupt company is a joke. For a bankrupt company best suitors will come from the same industry only. They have the understanding of the economics and ecosystem and best geared to turnaround the sick company!
AGI has quoted maximum price. The loser (international sugar) is playing the delay tactics.

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And banks cannot keep NPAs in their books for years and years…and how can someone prevent banks from selling their NPA loans to ARCs?
Infact banks will be doing injustice to their shareholders if they continue to keep rotten NPAs in their books.
If AGI’s plan is not approved by SC (after due bidding and AGI quoting maximum and their plan approved by COC. Further L2 bidder’s appeal quashed by NCLT and NCLAT) it will be sad day and HNG may die slow death.

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Date moved to 9 Feb. Taarik pe Taarik!

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Same SC bench heard jet airways case (link below).
These foreign bidders only interested in puting spanner in IBC resolution.
Same thing happened in amtek auto resolution when Britain based Liberty group just backed out after all clearances destroying the company and stakeholders (including employees).

I hope same is not repeated here .

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Beer Season on the way - 1 more reason to enjoy the beer season now. :stuck_out_tongue:

HNG is hogging the limelight. But earnings will remain the trigger most of the times.

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Any update on court roceedings? Friday wad supposed to be the latest hearing

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Again Postponed to 22 feb

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How can we track the court proceedings, can you please share the source to track it ?