I would again urge you Donald to go through Q3FY19 concall. I think concalls are treasure trove in case of better understanding of Aegis.
Important point to note is that domestic LPG capacities of Reliance and even Essar (as said in the Kotak conference today) are getting discontinued as LPG prices have fallen from USD 1200 to around USD 400 as US has become LPG surplus. In fact, Reliance had decided to move to propane in FY19 itself. Also, please note that Kandla Gorakhpur pipeline will only come after 3 - 4 years, might infact get delayed (BTW, Uran Chakan pipeline got delayed by 4 years due to some rehabilitation issue of a village). Jamnagar Loni pipeline (3.5 million tonne) which is already connected to Kandla will play a role in evacuation. Furthermore, Mundra - Kandla pipeline is being constructed by Adani themselves and will further cost Rs.350 crore (650 crore cost plus 350 crore pipeline cost). Snippet from Q3FY19 concall:
Another point on the penetration part of LPG is that 97% penetration is achieved by accounting that first cylinder is given free to all households under the UJWALA scheme. However, subsequent off take from the new connections is a big issue. In the conference today, management highlighted that in many of the new connections, average consumption of cylinders is just 1.3 per year as compared to 7 for matured connections in urban areas. Furthermore, these 7 cylinder consumption for matured connections can also move to 12 per annum.
Coming to IOC expansion at Kandla, the earlier terminal is almost a 30 year old and management said that work for expansion is yet to start. However, it will come in over the next few year for sure. BPCL Haldia terminal is becoming operational and in Haldia, HPCL is the anchor customer. Management expects volume at Haldia terminal to remain flat at 1.5 million tonne during FY22 as BPCL volumes shift from Aegis terminal to their own terminal. Kandla 4 million tonne utilisation will happen over the next 4 - 5 year atleast. Aegis management will also announce one more terminal in south pretty soon.