AA - Abhishek's Attic (place to store stuff to clear my head)!

Should you invest at all time highs?

Look at the chart below. The markets are making an all time high. Does it make sense to invest now?



Well. well. Look again at the same chart below.



The first chart was from 2017-18. The markets had had a great run earlier till 2014-15. It went sideways the following two years and then started moving up again. This is pretty much what has happened now. Markets made a Covid rally high around Oct 2021 and then went sideways for two years till about Oct 2023. The rally has resumed since October 2023.

The markets will never go up or down linearly. There will be volatility, sometimes extreme volatility. As investors we need to behave rationally and with discipline acknowledging that we are playing a long game.

In the next few years, the markets will be substantially higher than where it is today. So, the question is do you keep waiting on the sidelines or do you dive in?

As Charlie Munger used to say in the Berkshire meetings… “I have nothing more to add.”

36 Likes

Reflections of 5 years of full time investing

In 2019, I finally decided to call it quits on my nearly two-decade-long IT career and take up investing full-time. Having spent the entire duration also as an amateur investor, I had long passed the point where working for the month-end salary made sense for me. The lure of owning my own time was the biggest attraction.

But life as a full-time investor is pretty difficult, especially for long term investors. There is nothing to do on a daily basis. In fact, sometimes the urge to do something, anything, drives one to mistakes.

Two things drove me to start my research service.

Firstly, I have a multitude of interests, which if you are a regular reader of my blog, you would already be aware of. I was afraid if I did not create a regimen of work for myself, I would get derailed and fill up my time reading the whole day.

Secondly, by my association with ValuePickr and having spoken at multiple conferences and colleges over the years I had the opportunity to interact with tens of thousands of investors. I always felt that if some help could be provided to investors who are beginning their equity journey today then it would be truly rewarding. Donald Francis (@Donald), the founder of ValuePickr, actually, over the years had drilled the idea of giving back to the investor community into my head.

The Beginning

I started on 15th April 2019. The day happened to be Poila Baisakh, the Bengali New Year’s Day. Even if there were 50 subscribers, I would consider my venture successful. I think it crossed that mark in the first couple of days. I was, and to date, continue to remain amazed.

Strategy Diversification

I started with only the long-term strategy because that is what I was good at. Next came Quantamental (quant based) and Hitpicks (technofunda). This was a result of delving into the world of technical analysis and quantitative methods and also the understanding that markets work beyond a single factor (value/growth/momentum etc). A mix of strategies tends to work better over time than any single strategy. A mix of strategies will not yield the best result of all strategies but will have a better equity curve.

The last change, till now, I made in my investing journey is to start concentrating. Quiver, the smallcase, was a result of an experiment using all that I know - fundamental, technical and quant with a concentrated portfolio.

PMS

The next leg came when many subscribers started requesting me to start a PMS. I was always wary of doing something which required a lot of operational overhead. In the PMS, I have only two funds, Shree Lakshmi and Shree Vriddhi, loosely modelled on long term and quant-based strategies.

Biggest Learnings

The main learnings over the last few years:

  • Multi-strategy is better than single-strategy.
  • Stop getting over-influenced by overseas market gurus. They performed in a different economic and market context. What may have worked then may not work here and now.
  • Quant overlay on both fundamental analysis is better from a performance and risk-reward perspective
  • Managing drawdowns well can help investors persist with a strategy better through its ups and downs.
  • Investors look for higher returns when the going is good and lower drawdowns when the market is falling. One cannot have the cake and eat it too!!
  • Most investors are clueless about their investing goals. When asked they say things like, “Maximise wealth creation”, “Retirement needs” etc. Most have never worked on the numbers and have a vague notion of their needs.
  • Psychology beats everything else
  • Everyone is learning and making mistakes. Don’t follow anyone blindly. Do what makes sense to you.
  • Test all your assumptions. Don’t take opinions at face value. If you don’t have data, try to read as much as possible on the topic and across divergent opinions. Form your own conclusions.
  • Keep an open mind. Be ready to change your opinions when the data changes.
  • Capital is sacred. Don’t lose it. Making less money than the index or your friend is okay. Losing your capital is not.

Disclosure:

  • Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks.
  • I am a full-time investor and run a PMS and a research service, so take my words with a bucket of salt.
  • Never invest in stocks/funds which you do not understand.
65 Likes

Sir, any reading material on controlling drawdowns? I am running a Sharpe based Momentum strategy on Nifty 500 universe. Just started couple of months back.

Sitting out based on 200 dma means a lot of trades, might got stuck in whipsaws. Would love to explore more, please point to any resources. Thank you.

Actually very difficult to comment on any strategy without knowing the details. Using a single dma, that too a 200 dma may not be a very good idea. Of course a lot would depend on the time frame for your strategy. But in general 200 dma is far too long for meaningful exits for a momentum portfolio. If you are picking momentum stocks, it can get 50-100% above the 200dma and if you are waiting till that point to exit, it means in a bad market you will give back most or all of your gains or worst case even make losses.

I can’t think of any immediate book which deals with this topic but you should definitely try out other mechanisms of trend identification.

7 Likes

Q&A - How to start investing with limited capital?

Yesterday, someone posed this question to me - “How can I start my investing journey right now I have limited capital mainly from saving my job and borrowing from my parents but I want to pursue investing going forward but the thing is that my style of investing is majorly long term where I will not have anything to do most days apart from reading plus capital will be a major concern?”

The question here can be broken down into two parts:

  1. How to start investing with limited capital and
  2. What to do daily so that I can improve my skill as an investor?

Most people start with limited capital unless of course, they have an inheritance or family portfolio to start with. And in a way, I think it is better to start with a small portfolio because it ensures that the early mistakes don’t cost us a lot.

The main focus at the beginning of your investing journey should be as follows:

  • to try and understand your own mindset - what kind of stocks and businesses you prefer
  • how you react to adversities and triumph (that is when a stock you hold goes down drastically or goes up a lot)
  • how much effort and time you are willing to put in and
  • how much actual skill you have in the art and science of investing

You also need to focus on earning from your primary occupation and saving as much as possible. There are no shortcuts to this.

Please remember that investing can make one very rich. Thus it is not easy or else everyone around would be rich, but that is not the case, right? It requires a lot of skill, luck, perseverance and effort. You can only become successful if you truly enjoy the pursuit and the journey and not get fixated on the destination.

37 Likes

Learning This Week: Drones

Many years back I started to write a weekly compilation of articles I found interesting. The main idea was to ensure I was disciplined enough to read enough across various domains to be able to compile the article every week. Over time I realised that I had benefitted immensely from it as it subconsciously helped me connect the dots in many areas.

After some thought last evening, I have decided to do something similar again. From now on, I intend to publish briefly my learnings on that topic every week. The idea is to keep exploring and learning new things. Topics will include business, industries, specific products or services, trends, macroeconomics, psychology, economic or financial history, etc.

I hope you enjoy this new series as much as I do.


What are drones?

Drones, also known as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), are s mall or medium-sized objects that can be flown remotely and do not need a human pilot to be in it during flight. They are equipped with GPS, radar control, infrared, and high-resolution cameras, and can be powered by an electric, jet, or combustion motor.


The 4 Best Drones for Photos and Video of 2024 | Reviews by Wirecutter|476x317.11538461538464

What are the different types of drones?

India primarily manufactures the following types of drones:

Multi-rotors : These are the most common type, with 3, 4, 6, or 8 rotors providing lift and manoeuvrability. They are used for various applications like aerial photography, surveying, mapping, agriculture, and deliveries.

Fixed-wing : These drones have a more conventional aeroplane design with wings and a propeller. They are ideal for long-range missions and surveillance due to their fuel efficiency.

Hybrid : Combining elements of multi-rotors and fixed-wing designs, these offer advantages like vertical takeoff and landing with extended flight times.

Where are drones being used?

Drones are increasingly being used in many fields:

  • Infrastructure: Surveying, monitoring construction sites, and inspecting bridges and pipelines. For example, Madhya Pradesh Power Transmission Company Limited (MPPTCL) has deployed drones to monitor 10,000 high-voltage towers.
  • Retail: Inventory management, warehouse monitoring, and last-mile delivery. Some companies like Amazon have been experimenting with drone-based deliveries in the US. In India, some startups like Bengaluru-based Redwing Labs have launched an experimental trial using drones to deliver superior healthcare services to rural and tribal communities in Arunachal Pradesh.
  • Agriculture: Crop monitoring, precision agriculture, and pest control.
  • Security: Surveillance, disaster management and border patrol.
  • Film and Television: Aerial cinematography and capturing breathtaking shots.
  • Recreational: Drones for photography and exploration by hobbyists.

What is the market size and potential?

The market size of drones in India was Rs 29 billion in 2020 and is projected to expand further by 2030.

According to the EY-FICCI report, the drone industry has the potential to boost India’s manufacturing capabilities to approximately US$ 23 billion by 2030.

The government announced a PLI scheme for drones in 2021 for about 120crs.

By the end of March 2024, there were nearly 21,000 drones registered in India. During the same period, DGCA has about 10,000 certified drone pilots in the country.

The biggest demand for drones will come from the defence establishment. India is expected to spend $16.8 billion between 2023-33 for military UAVs as per GlobalData and the Indian Armed Forces are expected to spend another $17.7 billion in EW (Electronic Warfare) systems.

Who are some of the main players?

There are 57 registered drone manufacturers in India. The prominent companies, not all listed, in this ecosystem are:

  • Garuda Aerospace
  • Idea forge
  • Thanos Technologies
  • Paras Aerospace
  • Info-edge (Skylark Drones)
  • Axiscades
  • Astra Microwave
  • Rattanindia
  • Dynamatic

Summary

Drones, UAVs or RPAs (Remote Piloted Aircraft) are increasingly finding many applications. We have seen it used heavily in warfare and surveillance and in taking breathtaking camera shots. The use is going to increase manifold with more complex drones becoming available over time.

16 Likes

Sir whether there is any Indian producer of defence grade drones

Sir You Forgot Idea Forge the Market leader ?
Even Solar Industries is also in this although not sure about their sales

1 Like

Corrected. Actually there are a number of players doing this and I put the bigger ones. Somehow I missed Idea forge from this list. Thanks for pointing it out.

2 Likes

PLI benefits

The list of shortlisted drone manufacturers is as follows:

  1. Aarav Unmanned Systems, Bengaluru, Karnataka
  2. Asteria Aerospace, Bengaluru, Karnataka
  3. Dhaksha Unmanned Systems, Chennai, Tamil Nadu
  4. EndureAir Systems, Noida, Uttar Pradesh
  5. Garuda Aerospace, Chennai, Tamil Nadu
  6. Ideaforge Technology, Mumbai, Maharashtra
  7. IoTechWorld Avigation, Gurugram, Haryana
  8. Omnipresent Robot Technologies, Gurugram, Haryana
  9. Raphe Mphibr, Noida, Uttar Pradesh
  10. Roter Precision Instruments, Roorkee, Uttarakhand
  11. Sagar Defence Engineering,Pune, Maharashtra
  12. Throttle Aerospace Systems, Bengaluru, Karnataka

The list of shortlisted drone component manufacturers is as follows:

  1. Absolute Composites, Bengaluru, Karnataka
  2. Adani-Elbit Advanced Systems India, Hyderabad, Telangana
  3. Adroitec Information Systems, New Delhi
  4. Alpha Design Technologies, Bengaluru, Karnataka
  5. Dynamake Engineering, Hyderabad, Telangana
  6. Imaginarium Rapid,Mumbai, Maharashtra
  7. SASMOS HET Technologies, Bengaluru, Karnataka
  8. Servocontrols Aerospace India, Belagavi, Karnataka
  9. Valdel Advanced Technologies, Bengaluru, Karnataka
  10. ZMotion Autonomous Systems, Bengaluru, Karnataka
  11. Zuppa Geo Navigation Technologies, Chennai, Tamil Nadu
6 Likes

What is RMBS?

RMBS stands for Residential Mortgage Based Securities . Whenever a person takes a mortgage (any loan with real estate as collateral) and the lender gives money upfront in return for the promise of getting back the loaned amount along with interest over time. The lender can turn around and sell a group of such loan assets (future cashflows) to a third party, usually an investment firm. The lender benefits because his risk is minimized or completely removed as the investment firm has to deal with the consequences of any potential default.

Investors who end up taking on risk get rewarded if people keep paying their mortgages (principal + interest). The moral hazard is that banks, without doing thorough research on borrowers, keep giving out loans and sell them to investment firms who have to thus bear losses due to the negligence of banks. This is exactly what happened during the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.

History of Securitisation in India

The accelerating trend of the securitization market at the beginning of this century faced a major threat due to the subprime crisis. The ABS (Asset Backed Securities) volume dipped by 60%. On the other hand, the CDO (Collateralized Debt Obligation) market was at an all-time high, thus increasing its share in the Indian market to 70%.

Post the subprime crisis in the US, RBI issued a revised guideline to overcome the loopholes in the market. These guidelines were very rigid concerning the originators and SPVs. As a result of these factors, the Indian Securitisation market which reached a high by 2008 dwindled by March 2014.

RMBS in India

In a strategic move to propel the housing finance sector, RMBS Development Company Limited (RDCL) has been established by the National Housing Bank (NHB) in consultation with RBI. RDCL is expected to start operations in FY25.

National Housing Bank with 39% and LIC with 10% have the largest holding in RDCL. HDFC Bank , ICICI Bank and Bajaj Finance have acquired a 7% stake each in RDCL.

Tata Housing, Hero Housing, Shriram Housing and Grihum Housing Finance also own a part of RDCL. Others who have a stake in RDCL are IIFL Securities and Aditya Birla Housing Finance.

As per ICRA’s estimate, the share of RMBS would be modest, at less than 15% of the overall Rs. 1 trillion market in FY2024 (i.e. mortgage-backed securitisation (MBS) and asset-backed securitisation (ABS) combined, where securitisation is done through the issuance of PTCs).

The collaboration of RDCL has pledged ₹500 crore to revitalise the RMBS market.

CMBS in India

In 2014, DLF launched India’s first Commercial Mortgage Based Security (CMBS) by securitizing the lease rentals on two malls in Vasant Kunj in Delhi, DLF Emporio and DLF Promenade. DLF had said that it would receive Rs. 800 cr. for 7.5 years, where interest is paid through rents received from property tenants.

CDO, CLO and CMO in India

ICICI Bank launched India’s first multi-tranched CDO in 2002 called the Indian Corporate Collateralized Debt Obligation Fund. This fund offered investors a fixed-income product with a higher return than a corporate bond.

Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have also been issued in India, primarily by NBFCs. CLOs can help improve risk participation in the industry and boost credit growth for lower-rated entities.

Collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) are usually issued as Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduits (REMICs). REMICs are structures that issue multiclass mortgage-backed securities with tax and accounting benefits for investors and issuers. The terms “CMO” and “REMIC” are often used interchangeably.

Summary

In the RMBS space, volumes have improved to ~Rs 10,000 crore in 9M FY2024 against ~Rs 6,000 crore in FY2023. The formation of RDCL could help in widening the investor base as they have traditionally been wary of investing in these securities due to its long tenure, prepayment risks, interest rate risks and absence of a secondary market. The other major advantage of RMBS is it not only provides a distinct funding profile to HFCs but also unlocks additional capital from diverse investor groups including Insurance companies, retirement funds, etc. The presence of an entity such as RDCL would reduce some of the investor apprehensions and most likely kickstart a growth story in the MBS market.

11 Likes

EV Value Chain



|662x355.19269102990035

Fig 1: The entire value chain of the EV industry along with their EBITDA margins

1. Cell manufacturing, Battery Management System and battery packaging

The first segment in the value chain is Cell manufacturing, Battery Management Systems and battery packaging. This segment has an EBITDA margin of 15-20%. A battery cell is the basic unit of a battery. A battery pack is an assembly of multiple battery cells. These battery packs are the energy storage system of an EV. BMS or battery management system is the brain of the battery which maintains the health and performance of a battery.

Examples of companies in this segment are LOHUM Cleantech, Battrixx in Cell Manufacturing and Cyient in BMS. The traditional battery giants Exide and Amara Raja have both announced their entry in this segment.

This segment also contains battery chemical producers like Gujarat Fluorochem, Ami Organics, Neogen Chemicals, Tata Chemicals etc.


Battery Management System in Electric Vehicles|323x301.9964850615114

2. Electrical systems, Mechatronics and Thermal Management

The second segment is Electrical systems, Mechatronics and Thermal Management of EV components. Here, some businesses specialize in manufacturing various parts that make up an electric vehicle and this includes everything from motors to inverters which contribute to the overall performance and efficiency of the EV. This segment has a 7-10% EBITDA margin. Some examples are Tata AutoComp, Sona Comstar, ElectraEV and Schaeffler.

3. Software and Telematics

The third segment is software and telematics which has an EBITDA margin of 15-20%. Just like your phone has sophisticated software even EVs are run by software. The electronic control units in EVs manage the battery, control the motor and user interface. This software is crucial for the efficient and safe operation of vehicles and this means as we move towards EVs and as more and more cars get connected to the internet, we will see a huge surge in in-car applications.

Tata Technologies, KPIT Tech, Cyient, ElectraEV etc are companies in this segment.


Electric Vehicle Telematics Preview the Highly Anticipated Soul EV - Photos - Kia America Newsroom

4. OEMs

The fourth segment is that of new age OEMs or original equipment manufacturers and they have an EBITDA of 8-10%. In this segment, you have companies like Tata Motors, Ather Energy, Ola, Atul Auto, Bajaj Auto, Kinetic Auto, Hero Motors etc which produce, design engineer and assemble EVs.

5. Charging Ecosystem

The fifth segment is for the charging ecosystem which has an EBITDA margin of 8- 10%. Tata Power and ABB are a major player in this segment.


carandbike.com|386x267.2307692307692

6. Mobility-as-a-service

The sixth segment has companies in the mobility as a service segment with an EBITDA of 7 to 10%. It includes companies like Zip Electric, Bluesmart and ULU.

24 Likes

Famous Quant Investors

Jim Simons, who passed away recently, is known as the “Quant King” and one of the greatest investors of all time. He founded Renaissance Technologies, one of the most successful quant funds in the world, which uses mathematical models and algorithms to trade in various markets.

The Man Who Solved the Market is a biography of the great man.

Edward Thorp is a mathematician, professor and author who is widely regarded as the father of card counting and the first quant investor. He developed a system to beat the casinos at blackjack and later applied his mathematical skills to the financial markets. He ran two hedge funds, Princeton Newport Partners and Edward O. Thorp & Associates , that achieved stellar returns with low risk.

A Man for All Markets is a brilliant book about Ed Thorp.

Ed Thorp is one of the best minds of our era and anyone who wants to learn more on how to think better should read and hear more about him. Here is a brilliant interview that he did with Tim Ferriss.

David Shaw , or D.E. Shaw, is another pioneer of quantitative investing. He founded D.E. Shaw & Co. , a hedge fund that employs sophisticated computer programs and artificial intelligence to exploit market inefficiencies.

You can read more about him at The D. E. Shaw Group

Cliff Asness is the founder and managing principal of AQR Capital Management , one of the largest quant funds in the world. He is known for his research on factors, such as value, momentum, quality and size, that explain stock returns.

Cliff writes regularly at https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives. He is also very active on Twitter - @CliffordAsness

Andrew Ang is the head of factor investing strategies at BlackRock , the world’s largest asset manager. He is an expert on factor investing and risk management, and has written several books and papers on these topics.

You can read more about him and his writing at https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/biographies/andrew-ang

Ray Dalio is the founder and co-chairman of Bridgewater Associates , the world’s largest hedge fund. He is known for his macroeconomic views and his principles-based approach to life and investing. He uses a combination of human judgment and computer models to design his portfolios.

He wrote a very interesting book titled Principles. Ray is also active on Twitter @RayDalio

John Overdeck and David Siegel are the co-founders of Two Sigma Investments , another leading quant fund that uses advanced technology and data science to trade in various markets. They have backgrounds in mathematics, computer science and engineering.

More details can be found at https://www.twosigma.com/

Jean-Philippe Bouchaud and Marc Potters are the chairman and chief investment officer, respectively, of Capital Fund Management (CFM) , a French quant fund that uses statistical physics and machine learning to trade in global markets. They are also prolific authors and researchers in quantitative finance.

Read more about CFM at Our thinking - CFM

These are some of the most famous quant investors but many others have contributed to the field and achieved remarkable results.

Knowing about the luminaries of a field helps us understand how a field has evolved and what new happenings are taking place.

23 Likes