■ Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd is nearing its all-time high record.
● If the price breaks above the strong resistance zone of 2977 to 3014, further upward movement is likely.
weekly
Daily
Disclaimer: No Positions, This is not a recommendation to buy or sell and shared purely for educational purpose.
HBL Power chart update.
Daily chart attached shows a breakout from a triangular consolidation that took place between 376 to 612 from Dec 2023 to July 2024.
Post this breakout, stock went on to hit a fresh ATH of 724.
Stock again went into corrective phase and went down and tested the 10 WEMA at around 590-600, which also happened to be the region of previous ATH of 612.
Going forward I have tried to plot a rising channel to see if the stock price follows this channel. We saw some similar channeled moves in Shaily, Wockhardt etc and examples of such channeled moves were posted by @dhruvpatel
Disc: invested. not a recommendation to buy/sell.
Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Ltd. CMP-753
Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC is set up as a joint venture between Aditya Birla Capital Ltd and Sun Life AMC and is among the top ten AMC’s in India. The IPO came in October 2021 at 712 Rs, after the same markets went sideways and stock price went into a correction mode. For 3 years the stock has consolidated and created a rounding bottom in form of a cup and a handle pattern. Also the stock price has recently (in August) moved above the IPO listing high price of 723 Rs and is consolidating . On Friday Sep 20, 2024 there was a huge volume spurt with high delivery percentage.
Fundamentally the business is asset light and doing well along with the sector (one can check the recent quarterly performance which is easily available). Capital market plays are doing well due to sector tail wind and recently NSE launched a new thematic index called the Nifty Capital Markets Index, which will attract inflows to capital market plays.
Below is the weekly and daily chart for reference.
Disclosure : Invested.(not a stock recommendation, anyone contemplating investing needs to do their own due diligence).
Vesuvius India: Breakout from flag-like consolidation. Expected target price of ~7400. Technical View:
Fundamental View: Ongoing and overall promised capex for new product lines shall sustain the earnings momentum - commissioned Mould Flux plant in June End. Expect AlSi as well as Basic Monolithic plant commissioning by Nov 2024. Core and large customers (Tata steel and JSW steel) are expanding capacity. For instance: Tata Steel commissions 5MTPA steel capacity.
Risks: Per steel industry news, cheaper imports from China remains a threat for India’s steel manufacturing sector. Slowdown in the Steel Industry will impact the business. Customer Concentration.
Disc: Hold a position basis evolving fundamentals and price action.
Company : VA Tech Wabag Ltd
Disclosure : Taken position (Please go through concalls and earnings to develop conviction)
Company: Suzlon (Turn around story for wind energy)
On Daily Chart currently:
Disclaimer : I have position in this stock so I am biased. Please go through concalls, result and presentation to develop conviction.
MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA LTD is nearing its all-time high record.
Weekly
Daily
Disclaimer: No Positions, This is not a recommendation to buy or sell and shared purely for educational purpose.
DLF cmp 900. weekly line chart. After rally from 530 in Oct 2023 to 930 in March 2024, stock underwent a 6 month long tight consolidation in form of triangle/pennant and broke out last week. Potential target of 1200 if pattern plays out which also will be challenging its previous ATH of 1225 posted in 2008.
disc: invested as a technical bet with appropriate stop loss. (not a recommendation. anyone contemplating investment should do their own diligence and follow proper stop losses)
HBL cmp 640. The daily chart attached shows multiple patterns within a single chart.
For someone wanting to observe charts for patterns within patterns happening within a short time frame, this is a great example to learn stuff. ( disc; I am invested, and this is not a recommenndation but put up to show examples of multiple patterns within a single chart window. )
Dear @hitesh2710 Sir,
How do you see HCC in technical perspective now after a month with recent corrections.
The stock is at 200 EMA after going below 50, 100 and 150 EMA levels. It went below ~42 levels which was another support, below 45 levels and now it is sitting at EMA and another small possible support levels at 40.
Do you consider this as failed technical setup?
Daily - HCC
Weekly - HCC
Thank you
The technical pqttern formed in HCC seems to have failed as of now. The stock price along with the small-midcap carnage has been hit hard.
Hi @hitesh2710,
Request your insight on how to handle pattern fail due to change in the overall market sentiment in general.
If someone enters in any stock based on the technicals and due to market sentiments, there is sudden drop in the stock price without giving a chance to an individual for exit, how should we deal with such situations? Is it possible that pattern has failed due to change in the market sentimenet than anything related to stock and stock may bouce back?
I would like add my 2 cents before our doctor sir comes and guides us.
From what I have experienced, there will be effect on the stocks if there is a strong correction across indices. Almost all stocks fall, to varying degrees. Some will be spared, owning to fundamental reasons, support levels, intrinsic value zones, areas of interest, demand etc. And these kind of falls are more pronounced in mid cap and small cap stocks.
And depending on the reasons for the fall, the severity of the fall, the consensus of the participants, the reversal could happen sooner than later, and the reversal can happen to the extent of the fall, like we have been seeing in the current market. So a wide stop loss can help, but as it is hard for me to guess what can happen after such a fall, so I prefer getting out and come back later.
If we are taking a trade based purely on technicals alone, better to have a stop loss, if we don’t know about the company. If we know about the company, or volatility is common in the stock, we can have a wide stop loss, I think ATR will help here. One can look at the volume too.
Losses always happen with pure technicals, however strong the charts may look, it is past and the next trading session could undo the past, particularly with stocks trading at ATHs. A 15% from ATH from investing standpoint is common, but a quick 15% loss might not be the same to all traders. And, If we are in a bull market, there will be new opportunities. I say this purely from a technical stand point, about price not value.
On another note, the position sizing cannot be big purely based on technicals unless experienced. And if the position sizing is big combined with fundamentals, we can look at a wider stop loss, and if the trade is taken for a few months, there is a chance of price not hitting the stop loss and the fall will be recovered.
As with FA, TA feels like a journey too. Feels like nothing much has changed when charts are looked at, but the lessons, experiences, and profits/losses happen. Fascinating, nevertheless.
I am in an early stage of learning, so I am all over the place, and there are gaps in my knowledge, wrong interpretations and inferences. Sharing for my own clarity and as it is relevant to what was asked.
Most of the answers related to your query have been very aptly answered by @ChaitanyaC in his post.
We are currently in the phase where a lot of breakouts are failing and though stocks are not collapsing, the expected outcomes of pattern breakouts are not coming through. This can be looked at as a sort of warning where its time to look at the structure of overall markets and see how things are panning out.
If overall markets remain lacklustre, very few bullish patterns will play out. Stocks will go sideways, or correct and not make the expected quick comebacks.
In this kind of markets its better to wait on sidelines for market momentum to return, or be very choosy in the stock selection process. Hoping for a stock to bounce back after a pattern has failed is hope investing. Techno funda investors often fall prey to this problem because in the absence of technicals playing out, they tend to fall back on fundamentals, taking solace in the fact that fundamentals are good and stock will not fall further. But there are no fixed rules for these situations.
And following strict stop losses will spare a lot of pain. Its better to exit a stock at say a 7% loss than see a drawdown of nearly 15-20% which can effortlessly come about in an overall weak market.
One of the most underrated companies which has been a big wealth creator over past few years has been TI India. Just saw the chart and its amazing to the see the importance of 10 month moving average acting as regular support since a long time. (doesn’t mean it will continue to act as support, but overall it is a very interesting chart and simple to follow based on stop loss rules made on one’s own comfort levels) disc: no positions, not a recommendation. Shared only because it looks very interesting based on simple parameter of following 10 Month EMA…
Sir, just a small query.
Is it 10 month SMA / EMA?
Thanks in advance
dr.vikas
10 Month EMA… (exponential moving avg)… last 3 words of the post clearly mention that. 
TT LIMITED CMP 145 weekly charts ( Sector : Textile )
Cup & Handle Life High Breakout, Stop loss 115 : Expected 250 +
130 levels is Multiple Resistance on closing basis Since 2018
Yesterday On 30 Oct saw Life high Daily Volumes since listing
could also be Highest Weekly Volumes
Last week Announced Turnaround Results + Preferential Issue
