Mylab launches covid tests at home.
https://mylabdiscoverysolutions.com/first-made-in-india-covid-19-tests-kit-by-mylab/
Available at ecommerce platforms. Test results in 15 min
Disc: not invested, pardon me if some one has already shared this news.
Thank you
Yeah, just realized, thanks for pointing it out. That limits the export upside to volume growth mostly and at max 2-3x margin expansion (still significant)
I attaching Co-Diagnostic info here i m using screen shots and attaching link of source also. A lot of info regarding international market for COVID and pricing of Test and other recent developments of new rapid PCR point-of-care and at-home testing platform. Also by looking at revenue we can calculate how much Kilpest will get if they can Export to World.
For 10 million test means 1 core test their revenue is 540+ crore so per test price is in Rupees 500+ range.
Look at Margin 77.7% but thatâs not all when i looked at FY21 Q1 results margins were 83.7%
Also look at second quarter expectaion 
For bettter understanding of Covid
test market internationally one can look at Earnings call transcript of Co-Diagnostic. Management remains positive for sales and profit going forward.
Co-Diagnostics, Inc. (CODX) CEO Dwight Egan on Q1 2021 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
Hi all, Iâve only started reading this thread yesterday and am thoroughly impressed with the quality of research in the past week or so. Kudos to all.
I feel that the only potential bottleneck to Kilpest growing sustainably even post Covid may be from the threat of larger companies getting into the molecular diagnostics space, given the excellent unit economic of the business even without Covid. I recently read that even Reliance is getting into diagnostic kits for Covid. I think they are likely to branch out into the space inas big way after covid. Even the Tatas have recently incorporated a business by the name of Tata Medical Diagnostics and they are doing CRISPR based testing. There is already talk on this thread of a threat from the diagnostic companies backward integrating into kits as well.
So the question I am hoping to get an answer to is that while Kilpest does have best in class tech today, is the intellectual property hard enough to replicate by large disruptors who are willing to throw money at the problem? I donât have any knowledge of biotechnology and so am not able to answert this myself.
How big are these threats in reality, and how should we factor them into our earnings expectations?
Found something related to testing RTPCR
Mass Spectrometry
Attaching the snap as file seems too big to upload here
Thanks a lot Sahil for putting lots of effort and write a nice thread in twitter.
I talked to a microbiologist (https://twitter.com/drsaranshmittal) working at a Tertiary Government Hospital in Jodhpur to try and understand RT-PCR and covid kits better. Before we understand his experiences, we need to understand how RT-PCR works, here is a summary:
The first thing we need to understand about RT-PCR reaction or in general most of molecular diagnostics is that it works by identifying genes present in the sample we have. DNA is just a double helix physical manifestation of a complementary strands of sequences of genes. The (DNA) genes themselves are a sequence of base-pairs (A-T and G-C are base pairs). The way RT-PCR is a generic genetic material detection platform. First the designer of the test decides which genees to identify. This is the first value added/R&D heavy step. One can choose to identify many genes which are specific to the virus. Each would provide differing levels and types of difficulty in its identification (the process we will discuss in subsequent part of the post). I did cover this part briefly in previous posts. One can identify Covid-19 virus with 3 types of genes: RDRP, N-gene, E-gene. But these are only the most popular ones. A kit designer can choose to do R&D and identity other genes which might provide higher specificity or ease of detection. Once a gene for identification is chosen, scientist needs to decide which specific sequence of base-pairs in that gene will be identified using their test. As an example, the N-gene in SARS-COV-2 is of length 419. Scientists need to figure out which specific subsequence of this 419-length sequence will their test detect. As a toy-example, suppose the single helix of the RNA is:
Gene: A-T-G-G-G-C-A-A-C-G-T-T-A-A-G-A-T-T-C-G-G-A-T-T-A-C-G
And the target sequence is:
Gene: A-T-G-G-G-C-A-A-C-G-T-T-A-A-G-A-T-T-C-G-G-A-T-T-A-C-G
Then, the scientist needs to design what are called probes which attach to the left and right side of the target and help âidentify the targetâ.
Example Probes (in italics):
Gene: A-T-G-G-G- C-A-A-C-G -T-T-A-A-G-A-T-T- C-G-G-A-T- T-A-C-G
This design of target sequence in the gene and the subsequence probes constitutes the second open ended R&D problem which the scientists must solve. The probes cannot be too long, otherwise, they bind with the target RNA helix even if there are mismatches or errors. The probes cannot be too short otherwise they are not specific enough.
Another critical part of PCR reactions is is target concept of cycles. In each cycle, we double the concentration of the target RNA gene by initiating a replication process. The primer molecule is used to detect the beginning of the gene and used to initiate the replication process. This is the third critical part of the design process. The design of the primer molecule.
Here is a blow-by-blow account of how RT-PCR happens:
Here is a summary of the knowledge i gained from saransh about his experiences:
Disc: Invested and biased
Solid set of numbers from Kilpest, along expected lines. Key highlights for me:
disc. Invested & biased
Where did you get this number from? Can you please highlight because on the consolidated balance sheet I see only 58.8cr in investments.
Very promising non-covid19 segment growth too on slicing up the nos. incase we want to value the co. purely on this segmental growth-
3BB nos. from the investor presentation/financials
3BB Sales for Q4Fy20 = ~4.3cr
3BB Sales for Q4Fy21 = ~15.8cr
sales for covid tests = ~9cr (using test sales disclosures for jan-feb and approximating for march)
sales non covid dx = ~7cr
Sales growth (non-covid approx) = 76% yoy
3BB Q4Fy21 NPM = ~44% (7.1cr PAT from 15.8cr sales)
Q4Fy21 PAT (3BB non-covid) = ~3.08cr
Q4Fy20 PAT (3BB) = ~2.15cr
Non-covid PAT growth = ~44% yoy
Co. has also said exports, exports and non-covid business were impacted due to covid so this is likely going to be a low base for next year for their other diagnostics
I added financial assets + investments + cash + other bank balances on the consol BS. First two are probably liquid funds and last is probably fixed deposit.
Another thing Which I find very concerning is the provisions on the consolidated balance sheet. These were 2cr in mar-20, 31cr in sep-20 and 38cr in mar-21. These are very large numbers. If anyone has visibility into why co has created such huge provisions in both sep 20 and mar-21 balance sheet please let this forum know.
Disc: invested
These numbers appears to be provision for taxes and are in line with the tax payable on profits. So, shouldnât be a concern in my view.
Sorry, but arenât they already paying taxes every quarter? Why do they need to create provisions for this then? The tax rate for each quarter also seems to be consistently around 25-26% which is the applicable rate for companies now. I am a bit confused why the provisions in mar-21 balance sheet after paying all the income taxes in each quarter.
The taxes paid every quarter by the company are considered as advance tax as per the Income tax laws and are shown under the head current assets (you would notice a similar increase in other current assets in companies balance sheet which stands at 43.5 Cr as on 31st March 2021). Further, as the actual tax liability for the year is finalised while filing the return of income tax which is generally due by 31st October of next financial year, therefore, as per accounting norms the tax liability of the year is reflected as provision for taxes in the balance sheet.
when u defer paying taxes and create provision for them, are u still allowed to deduct from cash flow?
and EPS as per my calculations for FY is 133 when u exclude non controling interest.
company should rectify it.
having said all this, I am not much concerned about mistakes in p&l or bs till management is honest. I found similar mistakes in cash flow of RACL geartech and was too much focused on mistakes that couldnât accumulate it in desired quantity at 70 and then missed it.
if we consider 2 cr sales in march, non covid sales come around 5 cr and not 7 crâŚ
its decent growth on yoy basis but considerable degrowth on qoq basis.
Yoy growth should be considered for the proper comparison and so i am neglecting qoq degrowth as covid is behind in such uneven nosâŚ
One thing to note is company is postponing NGS launch from last three to four quarters and gives reason of covid in every qtrâŚ
So I have concluded from past experience that management is quite honest but not that aggressive and unable to grow in multiple direction at a same time. Their might me multiple reason behind it but it should be keep in mind for future growth calculation.
Did someone notice revenue numbers are not matching.
And also we do not know that if the other product revenue are related to COVID testing only. Like with kit u need Extraction kit etc and i dont think this extraction kit is included in 80 Rupees kit.
Also company , in its investor presentation did not mentioned about longterm contract and product pipeline.
Disc: Holding and looking to increase allocation at lower level if available
Under Consolidated Cash Flow
From Investment activities
"Acquisition of Investment " is close to 68 Cr
Could not get more details on This. Can someone help ?
Imv liquid funds, debt funds and such like.
