My queries 
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Can the Govt. cap the pricing seeing at Rs. 400 rs a kit their is very high profits ?
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What about other kit makers include GoI owned ones in the long run
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Is it a short term opportunity to capitalize on ?
Rapid Antigen Test is now increasingly used by various cities like delhi,ahmedabad because of low cost and instant result eventhough it has less sensitivity.
However,RT PCR has its own value and nowonwards its usage rate may remain stable if not increasing
With total 188 indian and foreign companies approved by ICMR as on 05.08.2020 as RT-PCR kit producers, https://www.icmr.gov.in/pdf/covid/kits/RT_PCR_Tests_Kits_Evaluation_Summ_05082020.pdf
do we feel KILPEST can repeat the show in coming quarters, i feel it may prove only one qtr show. Investment in Kilpest share at 500 around may be risky.
Pls share your view.
Rgds.-Sajan
Disc.- I missed the opportunity, not holding any share.
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Correction: 188 were tested, 91 were approved as Satisfactory by ICMR.
Kilpest has made investment to actually manufacture lakhs of kits per day. We know it is not a shady operator and is the listed player we can invest in.
It is the only Indian manufacturer to get USFDA approval.
By the time the Covid wave subsides, expectation is the supernormal profits come down to 3x the previous normal levels,with strong growth projected.
Disc: Added today, but with the safety of averaging up from 300 levels.
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-720000 tests per day(may be including rapid antigen test)
-Same trend of testing will continue for atleast 6 weeks
Spike in cases due to high daily tests, trend may continue for 45 days: Govt
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/spike-in-cases-due-to-high-daily-tests-trend-may-continue-for-45-days-govt/articleshow/77453845.cms
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https://timesofindia.onelink.me/efRt/installtoi
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Kilpest doing analyst meets
https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/edf2c753-d2eb-4616-b912-d104006eeadc.pdf
Delhi has now reported increased admission .
As per this article,rapid antigen has more sensitivity than rt pcr.BUT TIS IS NOT POSSIBLE because rt pcr does amplification of dna and so produces more viral testing material.But rapid antigen test does not amplify antigen material so test sample is always lower than rt pcr.So antigen test has less sensitivity
I think,govt is mismanaging by antigen test.
Due to low sensitivity,antigen test mismanage covid patients .
For every Covid-19 positive case, Delhi government to test 20 others
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/for-every-positive-case-delhi-government-to-test-20-others/articleshow/77515516.cms
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Read the ICMR guidelines for testing. Those who are negative on the Rapid Antigen Test and are symptomatic or otherwise suspected to have been exposed to the virus should undergo the RTPCR test. I believe this is what the Delhi govt is following.
Elsewhere, I read that RTPCR also has the problem of approx 20% false negatives, even though it is probably among the best tests we have, or is possible.
What i have observed is that DII invest in such listed co which are listed on NSE ,so first the co should apply to NSE to get them listed.
There are many companies like Shivalik Rasayan and Shivalik Bimetal, which are listed on BSE but not NSE, and have DII investments.
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Daily testing 8 lacks and target is 10 lakhs test per day
Testing up 10-fold but positivity rate seen stable at 8%
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/testing-up-10-fold-but-positivity-rate-seen-stable-at-8/articleshow/77603149.cms
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There are two hypotheses:
Hypothesis 1. ICMR guidelines are not sufficient to adequate contain the virus. ICMR guidelines asks to test with RT-PCR only those negative on the antigen test who are symptomatic or suspected to be exposed.
Hypothesis 2. ICMR guidelines are not being followed in Delhi, resulting in higher infection rate.
The article “Just 27% of tests conducted via RT-PCR in Delhi” insinuates that ICMR guidelines are not being followed in Delhi (hypothesis 2) but makes no attempt at proving that it is indeed the case.
Some questions to ponder upon:
- What is the proof that 27% RT-PCR tests is too low? As I understand, earlier Delhi used to have more RT-PCR tests, so the actual percentage of RT-PCR tests in the recent months would be lower than 27%.
- What is the corresponding percentage in other states? Is there any counter-example that shows higher RT-PCR percent led to reduced infection rate?
- What is the proof that ICMR guidelines of testing all symptomatic patients is not being followed in Delhi? No discussion on this in the article.
- Is the increase of cases by 20% from 3K to 3.6K enough evidence to conclude that this is a result of poor testing (hypothesis 2)?
These days many articles are written with an ulterior motive in order to mislead people in a certain direction.
I have no thoughts on Hypothesis 1 that “ICMR guidelines are not sufficient” given that most likely even those guidelines are not being followed in general in several states, as Dr Velumani of Thyrocare says:
Above is the latest guidelines for COVID testing by various means of testing. Some of the excerpts i m attaching for further discussion and interpretation in our capacity:
This itself gives us a lot of info on how testing is done.
Only Symptomatic are undergoing RT PCR and their asymptomatic close contacts.
If we look at the total cases, 80% are asymptomatic means ( we will take current situation like 1 million tests per day) rest 2 Lac test would be done with RT PCR and pool testing wont be helpful in these 2 lac cases so we can assume 2 lac RT PCR test per day only.
The catch is 80% test will be done with other means so lets say 65% cases would be positive with antigen as it has very high specificity with moderate sensitivity and remaining 35% who may have COVID but are Asymptomatic cases so these would be left further to spread infection and create herd immunity 
.
so on the conservative basis we can say out of total testing only 20 to 25% test would be RT PCR.
What we can see that the price is high for RT PCR testing but it is a flawed statement to be made. A PCR machine can do 90 test in one batch of 4-5 hrs and is automated but where as antigen test is like pregnancy test to be read in between 15 to 30 minutes, can be seen with naked eye…but the risk of sample collection is same for the worker he has to be in PPE and antigen test results would be fed manually to report. We can say sample collection and doing testing is same as RT PCR but the problem may be about transportation of samples from collection points to lab for PCR but for Antigen a simple make shift room would be sufficient.
I m hearing from relatives that cases have spread to the remotest part of the country and i wont be surprised if cases wont be reported and even tested. In the end India will have herd immunity due to systems failure and some due to immunity boosting steps by general public and with as the time passes we will more unknown as known like how to treat a day 1 -2-3-4-5-6 infected patients.
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I think, u r misinterpreting guidelines
As per guideline
“However, wherever available, it is advised to use
real time RT-PCR as the frontline test for diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2.”
So if there is no facillity for RT PCR then only antigen test is recommanded and above mentioned criteria are applicable.
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Yes as u said it right, it is only a guideline and they are free to interpret and use it according to their finance, understanding or whatever it may be or else why would there be so difference in Testing combination for all the states its like PCR is available to the remotest of the Tamilnadu but not available to Delhites ???
Finally it comes down to the administrator.
Now kilpest which is pure play Diagnostic kits and accessories is trading cheap with comparison to Titan biotech and Ambalal Sarabhai comparable peers with respect to product profiles.
any updates from the Investor conference call? I do not find it in exchange filing by company.
Good interview with Girik Capital founders Charandeep Singh and Varun Daga. They’ve been ranked the best performing PMS fund over the last 10 years and together own slightly over 12% of Kilpest in their personal capacity currently. They recently sold part of their holdings to Seven Canyons.
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This article seems to be exclusively for BQ BLUE subscribers. Cannot access.