Kilpest has been continuously touching lower circuit for few days after touching all time high.
One thing I noticed is that most of the time there are either only buyers or only sellers in this counter.
Is this normal ?
RT-PCR processing machines now arrive many months after ordering
Roughly the cost of RT-PCR kit is Rs 400 from the Bengal article.
Disc: invested
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Important points:
Across the country, Reverse Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) tests, considered by experts and authorities as the “gold-standard” for tests, remain the preferred method of testing accounting for nearly 60% of samples tested in the 15-day period between August 2 and August 15, according to an HT analysis.
The downside is that the process, from sample collection to results, for these can generally take 24-48 hours and needs dedicated machines. Add the logistical delays and tests could take three to four days. In the US, in some states, they were taking 8-12 days.
According to ICMR’s June 14 “Advisory on Use of Rapid Antigen Detection Test for Covid-19”, the sensitivity (or the ability to detect true positives) of antigen tests ranged from 50.6% to 84%. This means that as many as half of the “negatives” given by antigen tests may be incorrect. This is why US’s drug regulator FDA says that antigen tests “cannot definitively rule out active coronavirus infection. Antigen tests are more likely to miss an active coronavirus infection”.
“In an ideal situation, all antigen-negative results would be rechecked with RT-PCR tests. But if that is the ideal situation, most samples would go back for RT-PCR tests. Then why are we using antigen tests to begin with?” Rath asked.
ICMR’s guidelines says symptomatic people whose antigen tests turn up negative should be tested using RT-PCR, but it isn’t clear if that is happening.
But there’s a bigger problem: many of those infected are asymptomatic.
Opinion:
Use of cheaper tests can lead to more costs overall, eventually, as more cases rise.
Hopefully, better informed and less cheap govts. realize this fact.
Time will tell the truth, as records keep breaking everyday.
(of course, we can always find free and ready excuse in saying there was no other way)
Disc: invested
RT-PCR, although is the gold standard in Covid testing, also has the problem of false negatives, as high as 20-50% depending on the disease lifecycle at the time of testing.
False positives are also possible. Therefore, testing without reason (e.g., asymptomatic cases without suspected exposure) is not advisable.
More arguments in favor of antigen testing (in Delhi):
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“RT-PCR tests require skilled personnel, specific labs, and is a time-consuming process, as machines can only take 200 samples at a time and the results come in 4-6 hours. For rapid antigen tests you don’t need skilled personnel or labs and results come in 30 minutes,” said Dr Sanjay Rai, professor of community medicine at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences.
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“Delhi has already ramped up testing and one-fourth of the population has already been infected, so the focus should move from number of cases to comorbidities and hospital admissions,” Rai said.
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“The risk of transmission is more from symptomatic patients as the viral load is much higher in them. In contrast, the viral load is much lower in asymptomatic patients. So you have to use your resources carefully,” said Dr D. Prabhakaran of the Public Health Foundation of India.
From the first point, RT-PCR seems to have higher importance when infection rate is low, or where higher accuracy is preferred such as in the private sector.
The government has written to educational institutes to provide machines available in their research laboratories to augment RT-PCR (real-time polymerase chain reaction) testing facilities at district levels. The move, authorities believe, would help boost local level covid-19 testing capacity and help perform around 20% or more than 60,000 RT-PCR tests additionally per day through these deployments.
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Even if vaccine come, and the virus stays for say few years, is there any opportunity in testing other patients? What I understood, presently, the hospitals are testing COVID for all kinds of patients. Could you please discuss the opportunity of the testing kit except COVID.
Usually they were selling for dengue, chikungunya etc. bit seasonal. I have been a patient and their testing using the antigen technique is a problem, you have to get tested at the right time. RT-PCR can be used for almost any disease, because it looks for matching the cell DNA of the infecting organism/disease.
It is hence 100% nearly accurate if done properly, applications may include cancerous mutation detection etc. PCR first grows the sample taken many times, so is very sensitive.
Basically it is a matching technique and can be used to match with any pattern (of DNA/RNA of cells), COVID is only one.
Disc: invested, my understanding can be flawed
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Vikas ji can we have some light on valuation front from ur side with known or some conservative numbers for atleast Q2 and Q3.
I m bit weak on valuation.
Disc: Holding
Hi Ravish
I see calculations on this thread about the topline revenues at least and the estimate I think is roughly 60 Cr per month, if they are selling domestically, this calculation I have double-checked and is good!
This assumes conservatively, only domestic sales and what is already pre-announced, so does not make any assumptions about peak capacity utilization or any capacity increases or any export orders.
So per quarter it makes sense with the heavy ramping up of testing all over India, to extrapolate this, for this quarter and the next too, since the peak infection rate may be by mid next month.
So per quarter revenues of 180+ Cr, margins about 30% minimum, so 55 Cr roughly PBT, exclusively from RT-PCR kits.
Disc: not a recommendation, please do your own due diligence before buying
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How do you calculate all RT-PCR test done or being done use test kit supplied by Kilpest?
Vikas ji I want to know at what valuation u would be a buyer here? At what value we should look to add it? With all the cash in hand with look at future earnings with Non COVID biz( I bought this biz for this , covid came in between).
Hi Ravish,
Good choice, congrats! Given 3BBB de-merger will unlock some value, and being cash rich will help in the long run, as I have stated before, my rough estimate of the biz matches the deal which Varun Daga made with 7 Canyons, or little above that, to enjoy some margin of safety.
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It seems that making diagnostic kits are very dynamic. You have to hop from new kit to upgraded one. If the company constantly keep on investing in R & D future of the company might be bright.
Yes under ‘Emergency Use Authorization | FDA’.
Valuation is becoming juicy day by day but as i have lower cost of acquisition i m not buying right now may be below 250Cr Mcap this will be a multibaggar. Lakh rupaye ka sawal ye hai ki what will they do with the cash(i m hoping around 100Cr) from COVID kits. This single question’s answer will tell us that the promoters are hungry for more or not?
Do they want to go to next level or are happy with this limited success in sun-rising sector of multi billion dollars?
This will answer are they minority shareholder friendly or not?
This will answer the pedigree of the Managment.
This will answer about The Vision of this company.
This will answer my search of 10-20baggar in mid to long term.
This will answer the capabilities of the Workforce.
This will answer my doubts about this company though i have been holding this company from long but could not build big position because of doubts.
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As per this article(for delhi),
=No fix ratio of Rapid antigen test to RT pcr
=For symptomatic pts,They r doing Rt pcr
For asymptomatic pts,rapid antigen test
Delhi ramps up tests after recent Covid rise
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/delhi-ramps-up-tests-after-recent-covid-rise/articleshow/77813431.cms
Download the TOI app now:
https://timesofindia.onelink.me/efRt/installtoi
Ravish ji, these are good questions. You have been following the company for quite some time, so can we expect your predictions/answers too?
It seems certain that Covid vaccine will be widely available in 2021. Reading the article, it seems that a medicine for treatment may become available if not the vaccine. In case an effective treatment is available, the demand for testing will tremendously increase since testing would then change the course of treatment.
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My take on this stock is: All the way from starting to till now Management has surprised me …and I think they will surprise again. Let’s see what happens fingers crossed 
because I think they have got enough ammunition for future.
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As per bse announcement
We have sold 4,22,000 COVID-19 RT-PCR Tests in the month of August with an average
price realisation of Rs. 325/- per test.
I think revenue in aug@13.71 cr
PAT around @ 5.2 cr
This is including prev order of govt or not including?