Yogesh's blue chip 10 Portfolio


(A. King) #245

When you use 200 for 200 DMA - does google use work days or calendar days?

My understanding is it simply subtracts 200 days. Will it make sense to adjust 200 to 240-250 days range?


(PavanM) #246

Please have a look at the formula; it obtains values of the past 320 odd days and selects 200 of those.

=average(query(sort(GoogleFinance(“NSE:” & $A3,“close”, H$2-320, H$2),1,0),“select Col2 limit 200”))


(sarthak kumar) #247

Dear Yogesh Ji,

If i want to invest in pharma sector funds now, what could be some indicators to get a good entry point (which might show that pharma is near or has undergone a turn-around).

Thanks


(Vshah198510) #248

Hi Yogesh,
The SME results are out for Worth peripherals and Shanti Overseas.
I would appreciate if you can throw some light on these results
.
There is a one time deferred tax liability of approx 5.90 cr in case of worth.
Results look good but this tax has skewed the results.
Can u elaborate on this one?

Thanks.


(A. King) #249

Friends,
Even though not related to Indian market, you may find this article useful -


(pradip) #250

Hi Yogesh,

Needed a quick suggestion -
From where can I download for Banks and NBFCs (for free :slight_smile: ). Apparently screener does not have lot of relevant metrics (NIM, Cost of Funds, Yield etc.)


(ramanhp) #251

Any views on VASA and One Point One Solutions Ltd. Available almost at the IPO offer price.


(phreak) #252

Indicator is now at 20 for Smallcaps.

Just 20% of stocks above 200 DMA and 10 of the 20 stocks above 200 DMA are barely above and could go under in just a day or two if the carnage continues getting it down to 10%. The worst exodus might be over though but got to be watchful.


(Akash Padhiyar) #253

@Yogesh_s
I liked the way you are screening the stocks…but in your portfolio I have missed the stocks like piramal enterprises which has given 30% cagr for several years and still compounding…
My question is have you found any red flag in Piramal or something is missing in your screening method or have you just missed it?
Not posting details of Piramal ent as thread is already available on VP


(Yogesh Sane) #254

This is just a diffusion indicator used to identify turning points in market cycle. I deploy cash to buy stocks in my watchlist but look at the Nifty100 index because it is diversified and consists of most liquid stocks so it is appropriate for such an indicator.

To a good extent I look at the numbers and ignore the noise.I think it will be difficult for a large bank to fudge the numbers for so long especially when it is being scrutinized by multiple auditors including RBI. If bank is disbursing loans at a higher rate every year, it must be able to do so because it is able to recover the old ones right? RBI also conducted not just one but 2 asset quality reviews followed by risk based assessment and Yes has reported divergences. I will take it as a worst case scenario and it does not look so bad.

If you can find such indicator please let me know as well. :slight_smile: When investors begin to ignore the bad news and drive stocks higher even on a hint of good news, that’s an indicator for me that all bad news is priced in although it can be a false start initially.

RBI has some data (http://dbie.rbi.org.in/DBIE/dbie.rbi?site=statistics) but otherwise, you will have to compile this information yourself for individual banks.

No idea on VASA but @kaustubhkale may be able to help on this one. Haven’t tracked One Point One since IPO. My IPO notes are here.

Good call. But indicator for smallcaps is not so reliable as the Nifty100 indicator. Even that can trigger a false buy early in a bear market and a false sell early in a bull market. So I will be very selective in buying at this time.

I did miss Piramal few years ago as my screener is not designed for companies that are undergoing some restructuring. This is more suitable to stable and growing companies that are not changing tracks too many times. Haven’t spent lot of time looking at Piramal though so no red flags.


(Pavas) #255

I tried to backtest this indicator on CNX500. Worked well for last few years. However Pre 2005…most of the time it showed 90%+ figures but market continued to perform. Similarly in 2008-2009 it didnt give any meaningful indication and same case with 2014 upswing. I think it works in medium to low volatility environment. Would like to know your findings for the same.