While reading through the excellent forum on Terminal Value and also the automobile disruption/automation disruption
Some other good reading below
It struck me that we can generalize this to a wider segment and bring together points lost in company specific threads. We can try and identify business models which will CEASE to exit. For example
*When was the last time you purchased a greeting card or gift instead of sending the person a Whatsapp/Email/Gift Voucher Wish? What does this bode for Archies Limited with 5yr sales CAGR 0.7% and profit degrowth? While it is trying to pivot into Indian ethnic stores etc, the jury is open
*When you want a service provider, have you used Urbanclap/Housejoy or referred Just Dial? Why do analysts not believe in its growth.
*How many of us have used a discount broker like Zerodha rather than full service broker like ICICI/HDFC/Kotak? What does this portend for the business models of listed brokerage firms like Motilal Oswal if they do not diversify in future
*There is talk of robots replacing back office functions and automation/IT era replacing low skilled jobs. What does this portend for low skilled/commoditized providers such as *Teamlease
*The recently launched UPI allows inexpensive P2P payments at just 25paise/txn. What does this portend for the business models of PAYTM’s listed holding company One97
*AirBnB and OYO are disrupting the leisure travel segment with ‘on demand’ housing at many segments. Many other websites also offer alternative experiences(like Travel Triangle). What does this bode for the timeshare industry such as Mahindra Holidays & Country Club. Will it disrupt them with people becoming less willing to lockin high amounts and be tied to a vacation instead of ‘On Demand’
*Abroad, people are ‘cutting the cord’ and downgrading their cable plans to instead watch internet. While the Indian scenario is presently different with broadband being expensive and streaming being costly being non zero rated, things could change if Jio like plans allow realistic use of Netflix/Jio Movies. While content providers will escape while earning from the new ‘pipe’, what could happen to broadcasters/DTH players like Dish TV Do note unlike cable broadband players who can bundle broadband and cable, this option is not open to pure play DTH players
Please note I am not referring to industries hit by demographic trends/electronic trends like writing instruments(Linc/Camlin) which may see slow growth but whose necessity is not under question/doubt.
Comments welcome and hopefully we can build on this topic. If there are examples from other threads, please LINK to the comment on that thread so that stuff is not reproduced. Also, please let us refer a listed Indian company in our answer so that this becomes more immediately actionable intelligence.