ValuePickr Kolkata

Hi Abhishek,

In terms of agenda, found this post in Valuepickr Delhi thread very useful.

On a personal note, right now I am reading/forming an approach on % equity allocation in portfolio based on whether markets are overvalued or undervalued. Right now as per NIFTY PE indicator, markets are just slightly below grossly overvalued. Given that I am grappling with following questions:

  1. How do I handle the additional cash flow available on a monthly basis for investments? It does not appear to be prudent to invest all of that at current valuations even if the identfied scrips are trading at reasonable valuations.

  2. If some portion has to be set aside for maintaining cash levels, what % is appropriate and how does that change with market valuation levels?

  3. If I am not investing in index stocks, does it really matter if market is overvalued? What is the degree of correlation of index with the kind of scrips that I typically invest in based on my investment philosphy? If the correlation is low should I even worry about all this % allocation of fresh inflows into equity?

  4. At some level its best to exit the market lock, stock and barrel. Think 2000, 2008. There were enough indicators and every time after such madness, the pendulum swings to the other extreme. How do I formulate a process around such indicators to take the bias out of decision making and save myself for serious drawdowns even though I may miss the euphoric last moment gains?

May be a good topic to discuss either in this meeting or the subsequent ones depending on what is prioritized. Would be interesting to share and hear views from others.

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