Hi Hitesh,
Thanks for your comments. Globus expansion effects would be takin effect by Q4 and i was taking a contra bet. Lets see if i gets lucky… Please let me know if your tracking JBF. thanks.
Globus has hit the upper circuits- up by more than 19 %- today
this is something like commentators’ curse. the moment u write something off, it tends to rear up its ugly head.
Hitesh ji,
Did you buy any new stock after selling off Ajanta Pharma?
unichem labs and jubilant life. one pharma to another.
Jubilant life it seems came with poor nos.CRAMS player after setting up all infrastructure it seems dont have pricing power.
Hitesh ji,
Ajanta was the only stock i made money on since past one year thanks to you and another friend of mine.
However iconcur with what vivek has stated, also urge you to have a look at natco pharma but more as a short term trading bet.
CRAMS players never have pricing power. Its the nature of their business.
in crams one looks at capacities and process expertise.
Its all about volumes game.
One cant apply the same yardstick of moats, pricing power, etc to the whole universe of stocks. kabhi kabhi chasma badalna padta hai.
What jubilant has in its favor is its an underpriced bet due to the problems of debt and forex etc.
Hi Hitesh,
Few questions to you as below. Any response to these is greatly appreciated.
1.What could be the trigger point for the Jubilant life sciences in near term.
2). Do you see any scope for the company to reduce its forex issues and debt in next 1-2 years and clean up its balance sheet issues the way how Wockhardt has done.
3). Can you provide a small analysis on the company on what PE and EV/EBITDTA levels it can command on cleaning up its balance sheet at-least to some extent if not completely. can itcomamnd 16-18 PE…??
4). Historically at what PE’s it has traded and which are its PEERS in comparing the PE and EBIDTA multiples.
2). What is the company’s future in Generics segment as i believe only that segment has got the ability to have some pricing power.
3). Any chance for EBIDTA margins to touch 25% in next 3 years???
Eagerly waiting for your response…
regards,
Sandeep.
sandeep,
we have a thread on jubilant life sciences where most of what I know and feel about the company has been put up.
regards
hitesh.
Hi hitesh,
Have you ever looked Aramark remedies. It seems like an fmcg company quoting at a very low pe with decent growth. The stock seems to have crashed recently due to the lenders dumping the pledged shares in the market. Would appreciate your comments.
Regards,
Hemant
Sorry the company name should read amar remedies.
Amar remedies has fallen into abyss from 165 odd levels to around 65 levels within a matter of few weeks.
One needs to find out the cause of such a precipitous fall. I think it could be due to very high promoter pledging to the tune of almost 95%. This high pledging seems too risky.
Companies in fmcg space have no business to have too much debt in the first place unless it is for acquisitions which will be value accretive in the future.
Instead of this, look at another company beginning with similar four letters – amar raja battery. Looks fantastic for long term investment on most parameters.
Being a duopoly it does seem like an interesting story but there seems to be a lot of volatility in the earnings. I see that the earnings dipped from fy08 to fy09 and then from fy10 to fy11 again. What are the factors behind that? The revenues seem to be consistently growing over the years.
amarraja management seems to have been smarter than exide in focussing on replacement markets with higher margins and secondly in handling their raw material sourcing.
valuationwise also it is quite attractive if one looks at cash on books.
Hi Hitesh ,
I am not able to figure out how wockhardt is able to come up with an EBIDTA of 35% where as reddy’s,Cadila and others have the EBIDTA margin’s at 20-22%. I need your insights on this. Just want to know are you following WOCKHARDT? If so do you sense real valuation Gap between Wockhardt and others… I mean it has posted equal bottomline to CIPLA still trading at very low valuations when compared to it. Do you think that it can sustain its margins and generate similar topline and bottomline going ahead… any analysis on what EPS could it end the FY13 with… I am looking at an EPS of 125 on a conservative basis… Please share your views on this.
Hi hitesh bhai Its been long time watching your portfolio hence requesting you to update your current portfolio if possible in this or in portfolio section very much excited about it.
Wishing everyone a very happy diwali and a prosperous new years.
Putting forward a list of stocks which I feel should fetch good returns over the next year.
Most of these have been well discussed over the valuepickr forum.
1). Unichem cmp 183- Best is yet to come for this company as most of capex and rejig has been done.
2). FDC – cmp 87-88 . this is a value stock with potential of growth thrown in.
3). Shilpa Medicare–cmp 285-290 I am impressed with the run rate shown in past 2-3 quarters in terms of sales and profits. I think this is likely to come out of the hibernation of past few quarters.
4). Hyderabad inds --cmp 480 Value pick with sectoral tailwinds. div yield at attractive 4%.
5). Ramco Inds cmp 64-- Stock well below intrinsic value if one considers holding of madras cement and hdfc shares. Plus sectoral tailwinds.
6). Visaka Inds-- cmp 131 Stock is well below book value and has been showing consistently good results in last 2-3 quarters. good div yield.
7). Supreme Inds – cmp 285 – This can qualify as a long term investment bet and can compound at a steady 20-25% cagr.
8). Ajanta cmp 360 — here I would have maximum bullishness once the query of tax raid/possible retrospective tax could be solved. Currently I am watching the counter. Uncertainty probably might give chance to load up at attractive price.
disc: I have the stocks no 1, 2 , 3 in my portfolio and have been buying stocks no 4, 5, 6 in last two weeks. Supreme inds and Ajanta are under my watch list.
Lets see how the returns turn out over next one year.
best wishes to all boarders.
Hitbhai,
Best Diwali wishes to you and all boarders as well. Here’s to a great 2013 to all 
Happy Diwali to Hitesh Bhai and everyone
I think markets would be more focused on value than growth from now on therefore My top picks for Diwali would be
Indiabulls power - hated by everyone. I think it could re rate once the power production starts
And
Sintex - dis believed by everyone - historically low valuations. listening to the conf calls I think they are serious about reducing their debt
Disclaimer : Vested interest in whatever I write. please do your own due diligence before taking a plunge