Thyrocare : Debt free Asset Light Healthcare Play


#272

one more shoe drops for the market.

During IPO days : 30% growth CAGR is given.

After few quarters : 20-25% is achievable due to competition

Now - 5-10% growth has become reality. What will happen to high RoE when the competition further intensifies?

disc: no holding


(Chemist) #273

ThyrocarelaboratoriesLimited.pdf (1.2 MB)


(Bharat) #274

Have been tracking it from Long. 90% of twitter posts related to Thyrocare are of people sharing their worst experience with Thyrocare. Most of the complaints are related to unprofessional behavior , huge delay in Reports , Authenticity of reports etc
The promoter although is a gentleman and good in telling stories but it might not reflect in business. Though B2C accounts for 20% only but is affecting their Brand.
May be Management should shift completely towards B2B or try to improve the structure of the B2C Business.
Stock hitting all time Lows !
Disc: Tracking , no holdings as of Date


#275

I have used Thyrocare services multiple times and have been more than satisfied. Reports are also available pretty quickly. In fact I have seen lot of improvement in last 2 years. only people with complaints go to Twitter and not people who are satisfied.

Disc. Invested earlier, however sold off due to high competitive intensity and high valuation. Tracking the company and may enter again if growth and valuation look right.


(Vivek Mashrani, CFA) #276

Bharat,

Sharing my observation: most people post on social media when there is something wrong, hardly seen people praising products/services of any company. Have missed many multi-baggers like HDFC, Cera etc at early stage due to such posts.

If somehow we can get number of such posts through some analytics website (I think BSE itself has collaborated recently to give this stat) and divide by number of sample it processes from B2C then we can get % of such grievances. This should then be compared with peers or global players to come at meaningful conclusion.

Can you please elaborate on this point. Infact 40%+ EBIDTA margin, 33% revenue growth CAGR since inception, debt free company etc. is not easy to achieve, rare in my view.

They are indeed putting more and more focus on B2B and they have repeatedly said this in concalls.

In my view the stock was range-bound through-out the year and did not correct much during correction. I think we should see valuation multiples (which is still not cheap in my view) and more correction is healthy in my view.

Discl: Investing at regular intervals


(prabhatg1) #278

Hi Vivek I am not able to answer one question to myself …

Suppose i am the owner of the company(Thyrocare) i came into the market 2 years back asking for money to grow my business or to pay my debt and then after two year i am buying share from the market worth of 63 Cr why would i do that if i was not having plan to grow or to utilize the profit/cash which i am earning i wouldn’t have come into the market or just it was move taken under the pressure of analyst ?

Disclaimer : Investing slowly and steadily


(Vivek Mashrani, CFA) #279

Prabhat,

The IPO was not for raising money or repaying debt (it was already debt-free). It was to facilitate exit of PE investor. All other shareholders have retained their stake (including promoters).

Now this is asset light business which throws lot of cash without much need of capital. Hence, they give back excess money as dividend or buyback. Hope that clarifies.

Also, would recommend to watch one of the promoter’s video (most of them has same content so you can pick any from YouTube :slight_smile:) where he gives reason why he gave stake to PE funds…it’s interesting…!!


(CP) #280

Availed Thyrocare’s full body wellness medical testing profile- AarogyamX in Pune. Got it done for wife first. This required fasting. Sample collection by technician went smooth. Received report within 48 hours. Took pics of samples collected to ensure it was the same as described in the test report. This was confirmed to be true.

I took the same test a day after my wife’s report arrived and I had the same hassle-free experience.

Now I plan to get this done for my parents and recommend it to my friends as well .

Disclosure: Not invested but interested and tracking the stock


(Amit Jain) #281

Nice.

“Competition is between the organized and the unorganized players”


(Amit Jain) #283

The CEO emphasized on getting the volumes. He wants to capture the larger market out of the hands of the unorganised players. This tendency will reduce the OPM, but won’t affect ROE. And it is a good strategybecause OPM is 35%+.

Currently PEG is very high I would like to see it get below one. Like @bheeshma mentioned in an earlier post on a different thread that if you are making value purchase you shouldn’t have to pay for the growth.


(aerofire) #284


Good Read needs subscription though.


(mrai74) #286

I wouldn’t look much into this, ideally institutions do it for annual accounting of capital gain / loss

**not sure why webpage is showing 1st Dec as deal date (1st Dec’18 is non-trading day)


(dprashant) #290

Any thoughts on ,
Why so much of divergence in market price between Thyrocare which trades at 28 X TTM eps v/s Dr Lal which trades at 45 x TTM eps ?

All most all other parameters are same in terms of ROE , EBITA percentage , avg growth rate over last 2-3 years … ??

What market is finding in Dr Lal to give 30-35 percent higher valuation which market didn’t see in Thyrocare ?

Would appreciate thoughts on this please


(Sidhegde) #292

If your comparing the two, it seems that Dr Lal wins on most the financial metrics, probably some of this is what’s tipping the scale to favor Dr Lal:
https://www.tijorifinance.com/company/dr-lal-pathlabs-limited#analysis


(Bharat) #293

Thyrocare down by 20% in last one year , went public in 2016 & currently trading below the listing price even after 2.5 Years.
Slowdown in business compelled the company to increase spend on advertising and switching to a B2B model due to high customer acquisition cost in B2C Model.
Competition from private equity backed players has also posed a risk to growth due to their strategy of bringing down the pricing of the diagnostic tests.

Disc: Invested


(dprashant) #294

it’s growing at 15-18% and generates 60-70 cr of free cash flow …business doesn’t require too much capex for expansion and long run way if convertion from unorganized / standalone labs to organized labs actually takes place.

I think it’s not a bad buy at this price point compared to some of the other plays.

Let’s see when metropolis IPO comes and when does SRL gets demerged from Fortis .

Disc - Invested and thinking of adding if it falls more from here


(mylu) #295

Yesterday , booked for test in Chennai (Saturday) . The website needs lot of improvements and complete revamp… Its not user friendly at all.

For some reason , 2 bookings is showing up one without payment and another with payment. The payment details are not showing up while I received confirmation mail :smile:

No call from anyone received till now is a bit surprising… I will update once the complete process is over.

Until now the experience has not been so great. Considering that there are 100s of lab surround each locality, there must be some unique proportion needed for some one to come and avail these packages.

Samples collected by technician on time today. Awaited results…

22-Jan-2019: Report has been uploaded in the website. For some reason , I didnt receive it in email.

Overall report has been elaborate and looks fine…

Disclosure: Not investing just wanted to see how the model works…

Moderators : please feel free to delete this post in case its not adhering to the rules.


(CP) #296

Agree on the website issues. It really requires improvement. Their phone customer support is pretty good. Service levels here in Pune from collection to report are pretty high quality. Pune is pretty close to their main facility in Mumbai by the way. I also find their profile diagnosis to be pretty reliable. Nothing to complain here.

BTW, customer support offered me a 20% loyalty discount for having availed the service previously.

Disc: Not invested but interested.


(Vishnu Ch) #297

Posting my response to a query with respect to low entry barriers and intense competition for Thyrocare raised in my portfolio thread.


(stockcollector) #298

I had a blood test on 17 January and I received the report by email today 19 Jan. Aarogyam 5 profile - cost Rs 2000. I also agree that Thyrocare website is not very useful in booking a blood test and I had to phone the local Thyrocare lab to organise home collection. The process was smooth and I have no issues. Blood results are as expected (no anaemia, other blood counts ok, no sugar or lipid issues, liver, kidney and thyroid function normal). ButI am B12 deficient being a vegetarian- so got treated with B12 1 mg IM injection today!

My mother had a similar profile in a different local lab - cost was Rs 3400. Thyrocare was not able to offer home collection since she was living 10 km away from their lab and hence they said they can’t do home collection.

My feeling is that there is a huge opportunity in this space despite competition. Thyrocare is the cheapest and yet second to none in terms of quality…

Disc - Thyrocare shareholder since IPO and adding regularly
Currently 15% of portfolio