Thanks for confirming. This really seems to be a good buy at these levels.
As the company generates 250 crs Free Cash Flow annually, it is selling for mkt cap of approx 1700 adjusted for demerger. And this doesn’t include the cash deposits, investments and real estate.
Disc. Invested
Yes, the ratio is same. I simplified it
Some references about Thomas cook India in this interview.
Is the market rightfully worried about impact of collapse of Thomas cook UK on the brand image/business prospects of Thomas cook india? It would be great help if the experienced investors weigh in with their opinions.
Disc: Invested (1.5% of PF)
Although the company has proactively communicated in the media about it being a separate entity; I still think that the brand image will take a hit as tourists worldwide will carry a bad Thomas Cook impression.
On the other hand, I also wonder that this is a great opportunity foe the management to buy out the worldwide Brand rights and other liquidated assets.
I have written to IR about this and will update whatever response is received.
Disc: Invested. Views may be biased.
If the name of ‘Thomas cook’ now will be so damaging to them, why cant they just rename it to something else and carry on with the buisness ?
Is this a option ? How does this go down with the brand building rules of buisness ?
Additionally, i visited their website today and they r proactive displaying this notice on their website as a pop-up.
30% of business coming from website and a lot of other buisness being b2b, i feel this “brand-hit” wont last long.
Any publicity is good publicity. It takes millions to advertise, they are getting it for free. If TCI keeps their numbers on track, the market will soon see through the current mess. It is only a matter of time.
Is there any business transaction with erst while owner.
I think correction in stock prices due to Favourable uncertainty, is the time to accumulate / add stocks for future gain. When people think ‘Red Colour’ spread on the shirt as ‘Blood’, this is the right time to buy the stock.
I see positives -
(1) TCIL - is net cash positive company on stand alone basis
(2) Reduced debt by stake selling in Quess at good valuation
(3) Fairfax - Premwasta group - have reputation and honest (until proved otherwise!)
(4) Govt cut GST on hotel rooms and visible push on tourism by Modi govt
(5) Good profit making business branch - Forex
(6) Fairfax willing to expand business in India.
(7) Market share gain due to weak listed companies are getting bankrupt in this sector (Cox & Kings, Thomas Cook (UK) !!
Disc: I bought TCIL recently at 131 after i had excellent experience in Europe tour through TCIL!
Another positive for the company in India would be demise of Cox and King - another listed company in similar field of travel, forex etc etc
What about this
Company has issued a clarification. PFA the details.THOMASCOOK_23092019192525_PressReleaseClarificationonthemoneycontrolcomarticle_235.pdf (452.2 KB)
Not related to Thomas Cook India. But on demise of Thomas Cook UK which is unrelated. There some insights about the packaged tourism business model.
Few more interesting stuff
Reprieve for Thomas Cook’s UK as Hays Travel buys them out
Why are they delaying TCL and Quess demerger. Any record date or timeline mentioned? Do we still be eligible for Quess shares @hnk_so, @Marathondreams ?
Sold out my position some time back once I started seeing delay in demerger as well as reading about Canadian court rapping Prem Watsa on his knuckles (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-27/watsa-s-mindboggling-reasoning-in-takeover-prompts-court-award)
Earlier my bet was on Prem Watsa growing this company but when I heard the news, I decided to move on. I hope I am wrong but in current scenario, it is better to be safe than sorry…
The demerger / restructuring process is cumbersome, needing permissions from all and sundry. TCIL has got the final order passed by NCLT on 11th Oct. Similar order has to be passed by NCLT, BANGLURU. Heearing was to be held on 18th Oct 19. One of tbe members got promoted to Tribunal. Hence hearing posrponed to 07.11.19. Only after this order is passed, TCIL will be able to fix the record date. The co. per say has got no control over this. Now record date cpuld be in first week of Dec. 19
Q2 2019 Update and Investor Presentation
Commenting on the results, Mr. Madhavan Menon, Group Chairman and Managing
Director, said: “This has been a challenging quarter for the travel industry with the collapse of Jet Airways leading to a surge in airfares, as well as the negative impact on customers and to the entire Indian Travel industry caused by the closure of Cox & Kings. Globally, the geopolitical unrest in Hong Kong & the Middle East, haze and heat in parts of South East Asia etc. impacted parts of our Outbound and DMS businesses. Also, being a fairly recent event - we continue to monitor the impact at a retail level, of the closure of Thomas Cook UK.
Against this backdrop, the Group managed a credible performance with consolidated revenue from operations growing 6% to Rs. 17 Bn. from Rs. 16 Bn. for the period, while the consolidated PBT of the Group’s Core Travel & Forex businesses increased 20% to Rs. 163 Mn. as against Rs.136 Mn. Our Financial Services businesses remained resilient, growing revenue by 4% and EBIT by 7% with sustained retail focus. Our E-Business vertical also performed admirably to post a revenue growth of 23%; as did our African & North American DMS units who registered impressive recoveries during the period. Looking ahead, given the approval by the Mumbai NCLT on October 10, 2019, the proposed demerger of TCIL’s Human Capital business including Quess Corp shares to TCIL shareholders is proceeding as planned and should be completed later this year. This will be welcomed by stakeholders as it simplifies the group structure and offers both organisations the opportunity to chart their individual future growth paths, in their respective business spaces.”
Material Events
Launched ‘TeeCee’ and Ezy, AI powered chatbots, offering customers a near human experience, for thomascook.in and sotc.in respectively
• TCIL launched Home Collection Services for its Visa Business, in a focused initiative to empower customers with a two-pronged benefit of convenience and safety
• TCIL announced the second edition of its Study Buddy program - a focused initiative to catalyze demand and expand its student market-share pan India
• TCIL & SOTC introduced an array of Autumn & Winter Tours, in order to maximize the potential of this underleveraged season
• TCIL launched a bucket list of 15 ‘must visit’ gems of India in line with Prime Minister Modi’s message encouraging citizens to travel across the country
• TCIL launched ‘Undiscovered Antarctica’ in association with National Geographic Expeditions
• SOTC Travel unveiled its 2019 India Holiday Report. The report revealed insights on the evolution of the Indian traveler across four generations
• SOTC also introduced a marketing automation tool – to improve targeting and provide personalized products to existing customers basis their past history
• Asian Trails celebrated 20 years on September 9, 2019. The quarter also saw the launch of its new website www.asiantrails.travel
India Network expansion:
• TCIL: 6 new Forex outlets opened at Bengaluru Airport and 1 at Delhi Airport; 1 new branch in Delhi, 3 new franchise Gold Circle Partner outlets in Amritsar, Bengaluru and Chennai
• SOTC: 4 new franchise outlets were opened at Kolkata, Lucknow, Mysore and Surat
• TCI: 2 new branches opened at Chandigarh and Puducherry
Record Date is Dec 6th.
I am not sure if its T +2 or T+0. To be on safer side consider having shares in the account by dec 4rth.
