Subashnayak_1983's portfolio


(Hitesh Patel) #21

You seem to have reduced exposure to ajanta pharma?


(Subash Nayak) #22

Hi Rudra,

I don't follow any 15% per stock formula. It is just a coincident that they are in and around 15%. And yes, I sold all my Mayur stock I bought pre bonus time. Then I added quite a bunch of it. As a principle, I stay away from stocks/sectors which can get affected by govt decisions, and policies; especially when we have a govt, which seemed to mastered the art of corruption, and denial of it. So no banks, NBFCs for me (Also I don't know how to value these finance companies). I know for the fact that one can have HDFC, Yes, IndusInd Bank in one's long term portfolio. I will add them when there will be a banking stock run-up.

Hi Hitesh,

Yes, I have been reducing Ajanta slowly, as it seemed to have run a lot recently. I find much better short/medium term gain in Dishman, Granules, Alembic, Aarti as compared to Ajanta. I might be wrong.


(Atul Garg) #23

with reducing debt, increasing promoter stake and consistent ROCE >20% Kajaria seems interesting.Any specific reasons to exit from Kajaria ?


(Subash Nayak) #24

Hi Atul,

Agreed Kajaria is a good stock to hold on, but I have better conviction with other stocks. So it is not present in my stock XI.


(Subash Nayak) #25

Sold all of Cera Sanitaryware (~2% of portfolio) with a decent profit, and converted to Granules. Will invest again in Cera (with a bigger percentage of portfolio) once the pharma bull get tired of the big run, and takes a rest. Now Granules have moved to #1 spot in my portfolio with 16% allocation.

With promoter share de-pledging, promoter increasing stake via open market buying almost on a daily basis, High margin FD capacity expansion completing within 1-2 month, things seems brighter to me, even after such good run-up by Granules.


(Subash Nayak) #26

The fun called "pharma bull run" seems to be over. Sold all of Aarti Drugs, and portion of granules, dishman, and alembic. Added more of Kaveri and Yes Bank. In coming days planning to reduce more of non-ajanta pharma (except unichem, which I plan to keep for long term), and add more ajanta, along with yes/IndusInd bank, or may be a little bit of Bata/Page.


(GreyFool) #27

Looking at your strategy it seems you are a momentum trader. In that case I think you should be paying more attention to technicals rather than go that deep into fundamentals. Not sure all of the stocks discussed/favored in valuepickr are such great momentum plays.


(hemant gupta) #28

I would not jump the gun and say the pharma bull run is over only after a couple of days of correction. What makes you think it's over? It's normal for stocks to correct after such a huge run-up. This is just profit booking by momentum traders in pharma and FMCG to jump to infra, retail and aviation. Give it a few days for the euphoria there to settle down.


(Subash Nayak) #29

Hi GreyFool,

Minimization of loss is my prime motto. The second being finding the direction of the wind and suitably changing my portfolio direction to maximize my profit. To begin with I have 66% portfolio weight in pharma, reduced it to somewhere around 50% . The reason being myself not being sure about the pharma bull run sustaining in future. So make sense to book some profit and reduce its percentage to 40-45% or less.

Making profit, with minimization of risk is another way you can see my approach. Pharma bull was due to chronic policy paralysis of UPA2, thereby risk aversion by the investor. To make the max out of it, I had increased my stake in pharma to somewhere around 66%. Sudden unleasing of reform by UPA2, CRR cut by RBI, changed the equation, thereby changing the risk-reward ratio for the pharma sector. The uncertainity is now higher with pharma sector. So I booked some of my profit, and reduce it to somewhere around 50% or so. Make sense to reduce it further to 40% or so.

I actually increased my stake in Kaveri seeds substantially (by say 50% more), which incidentally is one of the recent darling of valuepickr. With the new unexpected policy booster by govt, banking sector should be one of the big beneficiary. CRR cut by 25bps will also help banks. Make sense to add some good private sector bank, and Yes/Indusind are the two well known example for them.

The fun called "pharma bull run" seems to be over. Sold all of Aarti Drugs, and portion of granules, dishman, and alembic. Added more of Kaveri and Yes Bank. In coming days planning to reduce more of non-ajanta pharma (except unichem, which I plan to keep for long term), and add more ajanta, along with yes/IndusInd bank, or may be a little bit of Bata/Page.


(Subash Nayak) #30

Hi Hemant,

I am not sure about the future of pharma bull run. In don't think pharma bull run was due to some exceptional profit/growth opportunity in pharma sector, which were missing in other sector. I think it was due to more of a risk aversion by people, which should reduce due to reform agenda by the govt. Hence I think pharma bull run (because of which every other pharma stock was hitting 53 weeks high, every other day) won't last. So what I feel is that it will be fundamental which will drive pharma stocks in future.


(GreyFool) #31

Your logic sounds reasonable though I'm no expert on ST trades. I think currency appreciation is another reason why people are booking profits in Pharma. Also I doubt 25 bps CRR cut will greatly change the ST prospects of banks. Already had 150 bps cut in last 12 months & not much improvement in banks performance.


(Subash Nayak) #32

I don't consider "term" when doing trading/investing. What I always want to maintain is that I should be able to make profit, with minimized risk. The undervalued Kaveri seems to me a safer bet to me as compared to pharma sector, which have run decent amount, and seems to be in a correction path. May be I will be 6-10% looser at max at the end of the year, but I will have a sound sleep (that is most important. I am a firm believer of return per unit of stress as a correct measure of return)

Also being from agricultural background, I feel the need for harvesting the crop, when it is suitably ripe. Any delay can be potentially hazardous with chance of near complete loss of the crop, or under-yield. The term of the crop/plant depends on the type, so is the term of an investment.

Your logic sounds reasonable though I'm no expert on ST trades. I think currency appreciation is another reason why people are booking profits in Pharma. Also I doubt 25 bps CRR cut will greatly change the ST prospects of banks. Already had 150 bps cut in last 12 months & not much improvement in banks performance.

Hi GreyFool,


(Subash Nayak) #33

Latest story:-

Got rid of Aarti Drugs, Astral, Supreme, Cera. Reduced Alembic, Granule, Dishman. Added more of Kaveri, Mayur (thanks to the correction to 380+ level), Ajanta, and Unichem Lab.

Added small % of Indag, Amar Raja, TBZ, Hawkins, and Zicom Security (The last one is a pure trading bet, which is hitting 52 weeks high each and every day, and the value-pick blog guy is still positive for it in long term).

Stock Weight
Kaveri Seed Co (8) 20.84
Mayur Uniquoter (7) 14.28
Ajanta Pharma (6) 13.69
Alembic Pharma (6) 10.17
Dishman Pharma (6) 9.38
Granules India (5) 9.00
Unichem Labs (3) 8.10
Hikal (2) 5.57
Indag Rubber 2.62
Hawkins Cooker 1.63
Zicom Security 1.59
Tribhovandas 1.58
Amara Raja Batt 1.56

(Subash Nayak) #34

Sold all of Dishman Pharma. Added more of Unichem, Indag, Granules (seems attractive to me post fall of around 15-20%). Took some initial position in Atul auto, and Sequent Scientific.

I have changed my portfolio strategy a little bit. 80-90% portfolio will be 8-12 stocks; 10-20% mini-portfolio will have stocks recommended @http://value-picks.blogspot.in/. That guy seems to be an expert in digging stocks from small/mid cap space, gives a solid reasoning behind every stock pick, answers your query in the comment section, gives regular updates on the stocks he recommend, gives clear exit signals. Heard he has some 10+ years of experience in the industry, a down-to-earth guy who say what
he track/knows. Seems a good deal to me. One think he lacks is a tabulated form of entry-exit dates and return it generates.

Thinking of creating threads he recommends in valuepickr with the summary of the post, so that we can further research about in the collaborative way of valuepickr.


(Subash Nayak) #35

Still in portfolio re-balancing phase. Booked partial profit in Indag and Alembic. Increased my stake in Amar Raja, Astral, and Granules (Granules seems mouth watering to me post ~20% correction in share price from its pick price). Added little bit of GRUH Finance, and Whirlpool.

Portfolio stock count has increased to 16. But 70% of my portfolio is within top 5 company (Kaveri, Mayur, Ajanta, Unichem, and Granules).


(Subash Nayak) #36

Latest look of my portfolio, Ayush's influence can be clearly visible now :)

Stock Weight
Kaveri Seed Co (5) 16
Mayur Uniquoter (7) 14
Granules India (6) 11
Unichem Labs (5) 10
Sequent Scienti (5) 10
Amara Raja Batt (4) 7
Astral Poly Tec (2) 6
Ajanta Pharma (3) 6
Alembic Pharma (2) 4
Hikal (2) 3
GRUH Finance (2) 3
Indag Rubber 2
Hawkins Cooker 2
Atul Auto (2) 2
Bajaj Finserv 1
Whirlpool 1
Kajaria Ceramic 1
JB Chemicals 1

(Subash Nayak) #37

Got rid of Bajaj Finserv (have baught it in place of bajaj finance by mistake) and Indag rubber (might get better entry point in future). Added Gujarat Automative Gear and Atul Auto.


(Raj Panda) #38

Hi Subash,

Am little surprised with your Indag move. This is what you said on Sep25th when the price was at close to 290+ ? and now at 270 you have exited ? Can you please explain, if you care to.

"So the phoenix has started rising again. My old favorite stock from ROCE-table days (for those are really interested, see my portfolio thread in TED). An debt free company with ROE, ROCE exceeding 30, quoting a ridiculous cheap pe of 6.5 is a undervaluation beyond my understanding.

The day I saw it again reaching 52 weeks high, sold bunch of pharma stocks to load indag rubber upto 10% of my portfolio.

This is a perfect example of stock I like. Minimized downside risk because of huge undervaluation (pretty much guaranteeing that I won't loose money), Hitting 52 weeks high day after day, implying it has started getting the due valuation that it deserves. A perfect harmony of positive fundamental and positive technical trend. "


(Subash Nayak) #39

Hi Raj,

I had taken Indag to 10% of my portfolio at at price between 253-284. Got rid 80% of Indag at 301-302, pocketing a decent profit within 10-15 days. With not so exciting result, and stock price falling, I sold my remaining Indag at around 277 (with slight loss). I feel that due to not so exciting result, I can get a better deal with Indag, at a much lower price, say at something around 230-245 range.

I am not an expert of technical analysis, but I can clearly see the price movement pattern of Indag. It has prominent bullish-bearish cycle in last 1 yr time period. So the better idea is to buy at the beginning of the bullish phase and sell at the beginning of bear phase, and wait till stock price movement started showing positive movement.


(Ayush Mittal) #40

I think Indag's results are decent. I have started adding back the qty I sold at 300-325 levels.