Saji's portfolio


([email protected]) #61

Hi Saji, I am newbie in this forum and have been gaining knowledge through various topics.
While I was going through your portfolio you had mentioned you had recently purchased PEL (2761), this stock has been in my radar for quite some time now but what stops me is that it has run quite a bit from his 52 week low (1377).
My question is - Should we not consider the run up it had in the last 1 year (which is stopping me in buying) and what is the conviction in entering at this stock at this price.

Would appreciate your response.
Thanks.


(Saji John) #62

Hi Pandi.Rao, Thanks for asking me the question regarding PEL. Well, I am not an analyst or a fortune teller. If I describe myself I am at best a “cloner”!. I go through the threads here and formulate my thoughts and act on it. My decision to pick up PEL was mentioned earlier. And I am looking forward to the demerging that may take place…may be 2 to 4 years down the line. IMHO that’s when the value unlocking will take place. How do I set a price target for that? Honestly, I have no idea! So what I do is I observe what other investors are doing. Market price action is the reflection of that. So once I decide to buy a growth story(not a trade story), then I do a controlled SIP ie buy on dips(both up and down averaging). So I have bought PEL at 9 different price points so far. It is like getting on a metro train. You get only a few seconds to get in. Only if you are in you will find a seat! One thing we cannot compromise is the jockey who is driving the train! I am pretty much sure about the capability of Ajay Piramal. My average price 2761 is just a generic figure. Don’t give too much importance to it when we consider the larger scheme of things to unfold. I am not undermining the importance of buying low and selling high. But in earning growth stories it is almost impossible to get in very low…how much lower? There are always smarter investors out there ahead of us!!


([email protected]) #63

Thanks Saji for your reply, much appreciated.


(Prasad India) #64

Dear Saji,
A honest answer. Appreciate completely.
If anyone in the world can predict the right price for buying and selling, the same logic will apply to buyer and seller.
If you gain you are happy and if you lose you are paying tuition fees.
There is nothing right and nothing wrong in the market where logic always fails for emotions and we applying logic for emotions.
Regards,
prasad.


(distilled_feni) #65

I am little surprised by your exit in NESCO, and the quarterly results were also not bad. This story I feel needs some patience. They have huge expansion coming up fully funded by internal accruals (which i am sure you know about). They are also trying out different events which I believe have been received well so far. NESCO, PEL, OCCL are literally buy and forget stocks for me. We have a lot of stocks in common and also somewhat similar philosophies. Thanks for sharing and
keep updating it regularly :slight_smile: Thanks.


(Saji John) #66

For me, Nesco was an opportunistic bet. Since I was sitting on profit and I agreed with the assessment of @Yogesh_s Nesco, decided to quit before the quarterly results. Also, I needed cash for building position in PEL. If I get an opportunity I will get in again as it is a long term compounder run by ethical management.


(Matt1985) #67

Hi Saji - Have been going through your read. Lot of learning points for me as I am in my early days.

Just wondering, what have been your approach these days and did you make any exits or fresh buys during the correction? Anything you wish to add at some point of time during the melt down? Thanks as always

Cheers,
Matt


(Saji John) #68

Hi Matt - Thanks for going through my thread. I have been concerned about two areas. 1. valuation of the market and 2. my high allocation to pharma. During this correction, I was able to reduce my pharma allocation with Shilpa faltering in FDA issues. I always wanted to try commodities/cyclical. After going through the thread of @jitenp, I decided to invest in steel, copper, and oil. So I have started nibbling Tata Metalik, Hindustan copper and HOEC respectively with a combined allocation of 8.3%. With govt focus on infra, I have started investing in IRB infra and Skipper ltd. Agrochemicals didn’t perform as expected with the good monsoon. So I switched from PI Industries and Bodal chemicals to Thirumalai chemicals. Rest of the pf is the same. I have exited capital first and Manappuram also for funds. PEL is turning out like a financial basket. I have been booking profits after one year of holding. So the pf may not have much impact due to LTCG as of now. One area I am really struggling is, I am not able to keep the cash. Even at this point, I am fully invested. Pf took 8 to 10% hit in this correction. See the attachment for the full pf. Saji pf.xlsx (9.3 KB)


(ramanhp) #69

Thanks for sharing the details. If I understood correctly, you await demerger in PEL for a meaningful value creation. As per the public comments by Ajay Piramal, it might take 2-3 years. Are you not tempted to use cash in a company/sector that is in infection point and enter PEL when the demerger starts getting on track? Just my thought.


(Matt1985) #70

Many thanks Saji. Really appreciate for openly sharing your thoughts.

A few questions, if you could reply as time permits:

Among the three new additions, could I assume correctly that your top bet is Skipper based on portfolio holdings and any specific reason for skipper ?
Was the merger with IDFC bank the trigger for CAPF exit.

Thanks as always,
Matt


(yudiagg) #71

Does the % allocation mean cost or market value pl.


(Saji John) #72

Allocation % based on Market value


(yudiagg) #73

Thanks for sharing pl.


(Saji John) #74

Yes, you are right. I am waiting for the demerger to happen. Even if it takes place after 2 to 3 years, it’s ok since the downside is limited. Often our plan to catch a special situation in a quality company at a reasonable price don’t play out well.


(biju john) #75

Saji, you had a great set of stocks in the first post(2013), just for academic purposes and to test the buy and hold strategy, would you be able to compare the returns of the first portfolio if you had just held on to it and the actual returns you have achieved. I have more or less stuck on to buy and hold strategy.


(Saji John) #76

Biju, That is an interesting question. I really don’t know how to go back
to the historical pf. Jan 2014 there was a contest for model pf(no
additions and deletions were done in that apart from dividends and bonus
considerations). My set of stocks were symphony, Astral, Gruh, Page PI ind,
Dhanuka, Poly medicure, Ajanta and Shilpa(I held the same stocks in my
actual pf also). The total capital was 10 lacs. Now the total pf has grown
4 times. Almost at the same time my actual pf has grown 5 times(roughly);
not considering the funds withdrawn for personal needs. I guess if you want
to grow the pf, you have to churn the pf depending on the performance/scope
of the individual stocks. IMHO, judicious churning and profit booking after
one year of holding helps to grow the quantum of the pf value apart from
being tax efficient. What is your experience? Saji


(Dr. TarunDS) #77

What are your current thoughst on Accelya @sajijohn
Regards!
Basic question is about going forward and growth avenues?


(distilled_feni) #78

HI Saji , curious to know what has been your stance in this correction. Any recent updates in your portfolio that you would like to share ? Thanks.


(Saji John) #79

@distilled_feni
Thanks for your interest in my thread

Beginning this year as there was evident froth in mid/small cap space, I started shifting my weight to large caps, namely hdfc bk, Asian paints, and pel. I had a high stake in pharma earlier since it is taking more time to recover, I have been reducing it’s stake for some time(got rid of Shilpa, Ajanta) primarily due to poor performance. I borrowed the idea of Hikal due to its reasonable valuations and its multiple verticals of pharma, agri and vet space. I was very disappointed with Thirumalai chemicals as it’s fall is too fast and deep. So got out of it as there may be some unknowns. The similar price action of Avanti is disconcerting but I am holding on to it as I am confident about the management and it’s execution capability although the sector has near-term headwinds. I got out of skipper as I had entered at a higher price point and the stock was on the downhill course. I have reentered my old favorite nesco as their next phase of development is on schedule and good fundamentals and stable ok valuations. Also entered Tiger logistics(I wanted to be in logistics due to GST and other sectoral tailwinds) as it has better valuations compared to other logistics companies and it is promoted by first generation entrepreneur and their funda are ok. Also started inv is KRBL because of good valuations and consumption will be a theme that will benefit in a bear(?) market. My top 5 remains the same though the percentage has changed due to price action and some profit booking due to the deadline for LTCG benefit for tax purpose.

Saji


(ramanhp) #80

Thanks for sharing your investment ideas Saji. I have been following Tiger Logistics and we impressed that their customers seems pretty happy with them. To pull of the end to end delivery isnt easy. And I too like the first Gen entrepreneur. I still didn’t buy it as I was bit concerned with their high receivables days. Wish to know if that bothered you? Thanks,