Saji's portfolio


(Saji John) #1

Dear Boarders

I have been a silent member of valuePickr for a while and the inputs Ireceived really helped me in consolidating my portfolio to 11 shares from 20 odd shares. Now I am faced with a predicament that I need to liquidate half the shares for my personal needs, But I am not able decide which ones to short as I know the pain I went through to come to this point!

Senior members… Please help me to pruning.

Thanks in advance

Portfolio

Astral 14%

Page 13%

Mayur Uni 12%

Wim Plast 11%

Gruh finance 10%

Unichem 9%

Canfin 8%

Titan Ind 6%

Atul Auto 4%

Tata Global 4%

PI Ind 4%

Me being a novice would greatly appreciate if you could suggest me the order of shares to go.

Saji


(Hitesh Patel) #2

Its a good list of companies. Should provide good returns going forward.


(Saji John) #3

Thanks Hitesh for your prompt response. I presume that you prefer profit booking to raise funds rather than exiting any of the shares altogether.


(hemant gupta) #4

hi saji,

it is a good portfolio and hence partial profit booking across the entire portfolio to raise cash rather than selling a few may not be a bad solution. as an alternative, if i were you, i would sell more of mayur, wimplast and canfin and less of the rest. mayur is facing short term headwinds and may underperform for sometime. wimplast and canfin are undervalued but not in the league of the others as i see much longer growth visibility in rest and hence bigger potential for capital appreciation.


(Hitesh Patel) #5

For me the profit booking time was somewhere in jan or latest feb 13. Now I guess it might not make too much sense to sell after sell off is already done.

In fact I am now formulating a buying strategy which causes least damage in case of further market corrections. This would include stocks which have come to attractive levels for buying during the corrections.

Unlike hemant, I have my eyes on mayur and want to add it but waiting for the sub 400 levels- In fact I think if it drops then 360 could be a good level to watch out for. Canfin I would like to watch the March qtr results and take things from there for further additions to position.

Among others, I am still pursuing some small cap stories and following the stocks we discuss on valuepickr.

Technically I think the rising gap in sensex at around 18000-18250 or so should offer some respite to the correction. If it does not then the picture can turn ugly. I think next week should offer some clue about further market direction.


(Saji John) #6

Thanks Hemant for your practical approach and Hitesh for your perspective on the current market situation.


(Saji John) #7

I have done some churning recently as I needed some cash. Now the portfolio looks like this. I must thank all the valuepickers who contributed greatly to my present pf Symphony 12% Ajanta 12% Astral Poly 12% Dhanuka 12% Shilpa 11% Poly medicure 11% HDFC bank 8% PIInd 8% Page 7% Gruh 7% Since I don’t have much time to do research on the stocks, I depended on the various threads in valuepickr which has immensely helped me last 1 to 2 years. Kindly share your valuable suggestions. thanks


(Hitesh Patel) #8

PF looks quite good saji… some stocks seem to be running ahead of fundamentals but if the view is for longer term amd minimum churn this looks okay. maybe u should increase allocation to page and gruh.


(Saji John) #9

Thanks Hitesh for your prompt response. I am planning to increase allocation to Page and gruh Going through various threads I am awestruck by the insight you have on various stocks. Another thing that I noticed was that you don’t comment on the stocks you are not familiar. That gives us newbies a lot of confidence. BTW you do all this while practicing dermatology!!. I am a Physician, I can’t keep track of both clinical medicine and investment together!! Kudos to you and all others who contribute to this forum. Saji


(Saji John) #10

An update on my portfolio. Astral 13% Symphony 12% Mayur 10.5% PiInd 10% Ajanta Ph 9.5% Shilpa 8.5% Poly Med 8.5% Gruh 6.5% Page 6% HDFC Bank 5.5% Repco Home 5% Accelya 4%. I exited from Dhanuka and added Mayur, Repco and accelya. I will appreciate your valuable suggestions. Thanks Saji


(Saji John) #11

An update on my portfolio: SYMPHONY LTD 14.5 ASTRAL POLY 12 MAYUR UNIQUOTERS 10.5 AJANTA PHARMA 10.2 MPS LTD 9.7 KITEX GARMENTS 9.5 AVANTI FEEDS 8.7 GRUH FINANCE 8 SHILPA MEDICARE 6.5 ASHIANA HOUSING 5.5 PI INDUSTRIES 4.9 I exited Page(due to valuation), Repco(as I had gruh in the same space),Accelya(its mainly a dividend play now),HDFC bank(I was using it for parking funds) and added MPS(convinced about promoters ability to turn around/integrate new businesses),Kitex(growth story/convinced about promoters integrity and ability to survive with militant labor unions in Kerala)Avanti(after reading about it from Ayush’s/valuepickr write ups. I made a mistake of exiting polymed and reducing PI industries due to my inexperience I presume. I will appreciate if seniors could help me out regarding allocation. I have a 2/3 year view on the pf. Thanks in advance Saji


#12

Saji -

I like your PF as mine look just as similar (hold all stocks what you’ve exclusion of Symphony, Astral, Kitex and PI)!! Just keep adding to your positions as and when you’ve surplus. I feel exiting Page may be a mistake as you get to benefit from Mr Market’s assigning high valuation (than what you think is right). IMO high valuations are good for existing investors just it should deter fresh buying. What makes you think Page is highly valued than Kitex? Asking this as I myself have looked to add Kitex to my PF.

A question: What do you do if you’ve investable surplus? Wait till the price is “right” or just buy across any of the stocks in PF?


(Saji John) #13

Ashwin Thanks so much for the comments… I am a newbie in investment. Little I know is from valuepickr threads. I am grateful to God and valuepickr’s for the same! On hindsight i was a mistake. I did that earlier also and got in easily. Kitex is more expensive than Page. But looking at the future prospects, I feel Kitex will appreciate more. With an aim to double its capacity over a period of 3 years Kitex is all set to become number one manufacturer of infant wear in the world. The company has already incurred the necessary capex towards the proposed expansion plan and a part of the augmented capacity is likely to get commissioned during the current fiscal (FY15) itself. Further, long standing relationships with big brands (Mothercare, Carter, Gerber etc), focus on quality, and a diversified client mix provides visibility to the business. I also heard that they are starting their own brand in US shorlty. Everything boils down to their ability to execute which IMO they have. Regarding your question of surplus funds. I fund it very difficult to control myself to keep the money idle. I usually add to the convincing ideas if there is a dip in price and try to balance allocation. I usually don’t wait for the “right” price. But i keep a safety margin of about 15 to 20% from my invested price. Saji


(Saji John) #14

I have done some churning in my portfolio. The predominant thought process is “Make in India”, favorable credit cycle, GST implementation, domestic consumption and digitization. I want to give credit to all boarders, especially the seniors for my thought process. I have benefited immensely from this forum. I must thank Hitesh, Hemant and Aswin for reviewing my portfolio. Please give your valuable suggestions. Thanks. Saji
Textiles/artificial leather 20.9% (Kitex 9.5, Orbit exports 5.2, Mayur 6.2)
Chemicals 13.7% (PIIndustries 6.4, Atul 3.9, Vinati 3.4)
Pharma 13.2% ( Ajanta 9.3, Shilpa 5.8)
IT 9.6% (MPS 5.7, Cyient 3.9)
Housing/construction accessories 9.6% (Astral 5.6, Ashiana 4)
Food/feeds (Avanti 6.2 CCL products 3)
Finance 8.2% (Gruh 4.4,Capital first 3.8)
Consumer durables 7.3% (Symphony)
Media 3.3% (TV Today)
Auto 3.2% (Atul Auto)


(Hitesh Patel) #15

Good PF.

I like most of the stocks in the PF though not too sure about tv today. You will need a bit of patience in some of the stocks where valuations could have run ahead of fundamentals.

And HFC seems to be under represented looking at the way the companies in the sector have been churning great growth numbers.


(Saji John) #16

Thanks Hitesh for your comments. With TV today I am hoping that when 3rd and 4th phase of digitization happens they will boost their subscription which will reflect in their bottomline(their investment already in place). The management is clean and valuations are reasonable(I got in during the recent correction). Yes, HFC neads more allocation. The low allocation is mainly because I have this bad habit of keeping my extra/profit booked funds in Gruh during downturn and shift it when opportunity comes. I am unable to keep cash for a later date!!


(jainaj) #17

Tv today is very good investment pic and for right reasons as mentioned by you. Moat here is its rich operational leverage which will increase its bottomline to large extent with increase in subscription figures. Remain tightly sit here for next 2-3 years to see wonders.
BTW, can you please share the reason for orbit exports. I am investigating it for last one week and been impressed.


(JKS) #18

Orbit exports is there in Forbes list as well. Keen to know the growth drivers here


(Saji John) #19

Dear Jainaj, Thanks for assuring me of TV today. I was drawn towards Orbit Exports by a report from equity master initially, Orbit exports is a turnaround story. The main architect is Pankaj Seth who is trained in technical textiles who had experience in trading and exports of fancy fabrics. 2004 he took over this loss making company and since then he has transformed it. So here we have a high margin, high ROE business that has witnessed a solid, sustainable turnaround. The company started paying steady dividends since 2010 and aims to continue to pay out about 26%-27% of its profits as dividends. Over the last five years, along with growth (5 year sales CAGR at 26%), its margins have consistently improved (from 11% in FY10 to 23.1% in FY14) and are likely to go up further. Despite the heavy capex to meet the demand, the company’s long term debt to equity ratio has come down and stands at around 0.64 times. Compared to other textile exports this looks expensive, but looking at the kind of work (pre-approved inhouse designs of around 2000/yr which is not repeated next year!), fundamentals, management honesty and execution I feel it deserves the valuation. I am biased towards the company as I have invested in it. Please study for yourself and decide. Thanks Saji


(Saji John) #20

@KS16 I think the key growth driver is getting their own electronic Jacquard Looms running to the full capacity(last one was installed in Feb’15). They can easily augment the capacity by installing new looms as the infrastructure is already in place. Earlier they used to outsource 40% of their orders. They are still outsourcing some of their work. They are also into trading business for that they are setting up an ERP program. According to an update I read, “Once the ERP is in place and with its offices in US and Dubai, the company is well-positioned to respond to lucrative trading opportunities. It has two wholesale cash-and-carry shops in Dubai, one in Los Angeles, one in New York and is planning to set up one in Bogota (Columbia). Management expects margins in the trading business to be good. The trading business will give the company entry into new product categories (e.g: shirting, denims) which could become future focus areas for the company”. There is one update by Firstcall which can be accessed at Researchbytes.com